IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (196) Philomela / HIP 2038 event on 2013 Sep 11, 01:16 UT Visible from SW Asia, Africa, N Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador Summary ------- On 2013 Sep 11 UT, the 142 km diameter asteroid (196) Philomela will occult a 7.6 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across SW Asia, Africa, N Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 11.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2013 Sep 11, 01:09 - 2013 Sep 11, 01:24 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456546.55335833 * magnitude of target star: 7.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 11.8 * Moon: 32 % sunlit, 125° distance * Sun: 162° distance * rough path description: SW Asia, Africa, N Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 158 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.22 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.0 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .032 +/- .018) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .032", .018", 85° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 11.9808 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 2038 by 196 Philomela on 2013 Sep 11 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 94 0 0 0 24 4 1 24 48 1 98 -18 1 7 36 - 0 19 11 1 26 51 - 0 38 8 - 93 0 0 0 15 56 1 24 48 2 98 -19 0 59 24 - 0 27 16 1 18 38 - 0 46 12 - 92 0 0 0 8 19 1 24 48 3 98 -20 0 51 44 - 0 34 50 1 10 56 - 0 53 44 - 91 0 0 0 1 14 1 24 47 4 98 -21 0 44 36 - 0 41 52 1 3 47 - 1 0 45 - 90 0 0 - 0 5 19 1 24 46 5 98 -22 0 38 0 - 0 48 23 0 57 9 - 1 7 14 - 89 0 0 - 0 11 21 1 24 45 6 98 -23 0 31 55 - 0 54 22 0 51 3 - 1 13 13 - 88 0 0 - 0 16 52 1 24 44 7 98 -24 0 26 22 - 0 59 50 0 45 29 - 1 18 39 - 87 0 0 - 0 21 51 1 24 43 8 98 -25 0 21 21 - 1 4 47 0 40 27 - 1 23 35 - 86 0 0 - 0 26 18 1 24 42 9 98 -26 0 16 52 - 1 9 12 0 35 57 - 1 28 0 - 85 0 0 - 0 30 14 1 24 40 10 98 -27 0 12 54 - 1 13 6 0 31 58 - 1 31 53 - 84 0 0 - 0 33 39 1 24 38 11 98 -28 0 9 27 - 1 16 30 0 28 31 - 1 35 16 - 83 0 0 - 0 36 32 1 24 36 12 98 -29 0 6 32 - 1 19 22 0 25 35 - 1 38 7 - 82 0 0 - 0 38 55 1 24 34 13 98 -30 0 4 9 - 1 21 43 0 23 11 - 1 40 28 - 81 0 0 - 0 40 46 1 24 32 14 98 -31 0 2 17 - 1 23 33 0 21 18 - 1 42 17 - 80 0 0 - 0 42 6 1 24 29 15 98 -32 0 0 56 - 1 24 52 0 19 57 - 1 43 36 - 79 0 0 - 0 42 55 1 24 26 16 98 -33 0 0 6 - 1 25 40 0 19 7 - 1 44 24 - 78 0 0 - 0 43 13 1 24 24 17 98 -34 - 0 0 12 - 1 25 58 0 18 48 - 1 44 41 - 77 0 0 - 0 43 0 1 24 21 18 98 -35 0 0 1 - 1 25 44 0 19 1 - 1 44 28 - 76 0 0 - 0 42 16 1 24 17 19 98 -36 0 0 44 - 1 25 0 0 19 45 - 1 43 44 - 75 0 0 - 0 41 1 1 24 14 20 99 -37 0 1 59 - 1 23 46 0 21 0 - 1 42 30 - 74 0 0 - 0 39 16 1 24 11 21 99 -38 0 3 45 - 1 22 1 0 22 45 - 1 40 45 - 73 0 0 - 0 37 0 1 24 7 21 99 -39 0 6 1 - 1 19 45 0 25 2 - 1 38 29 - 72 0 0 - 0 34 13 1 24 3 22 99 -40 0 8 48 - 1 17 0 0 27 50 - 1 35 44 - 71 0 0 - 0 30 56 1 23 59 23 99 -41 0 12 6 - 1 13 43 0 31 8 - 1 32 28 - 70 0 0 - 0 27 9 1 23 55 24 99 -42 0 15 55 - 1 9 57 0 34 57 - 1 28 42 - 69 0 0 - 0 22 51 1 23 51 25 99 -43 0 20 14 - 1 5 40 0 39 17 - 1 24 26 - 68 0 0 - 0 18 3 1 23 46 26 99 -44 0 25 4 - 1 0 53 0 44 7 - 1 19 40 - 67 0 0 - 0 12 44 1 23 42 27 99 -45 0 30 24 - 0 55 37 0 49 28 - 1 14 24 - 66 0 0 - 0 6 56 1 23 37 28 99 -46 0 36 14 - 0 49 50 0 55 19 - 1 8 38 - 65 0 0 - 0 0 37 1 23 32 29 99 -47 0 42 34 - 0 43 33 1 1 40 - 1 2 22 - 64 0 0 0 6 11 1 23 27 30 100 -47 0 49 25 - 0 36 47 1 8 32 - 0 55 37 - 63 0 0 0 13 29 1 23 22 31 100 -48 0 56 46 - 0 29 31 1 15 53 - 0 48 22 - 62 0 0 0 21 17 1 23 17 32 100 -49 1 4 36 - 0 21 45 1 23 45 - 0 40 37 - 61 0 0 0 29 35 1 23 11 33 100 -50 1 12 57 - 0 13 30 1 32 7 - 0 32 23 - 60 0 0 0 38 23 1 23 5 34 100 -51 1 21 47 - 0 4 46 1 40 58 - 0 23 40 - 59 0 0 0 47 39 1 23 0 35 101 -52 1 31 7 0 4 28 1 50 19 - 0 14 27 - 58 0 0 0 57 26 1 22 54 36 101 -53 1 40 56 0 14 11 2 0 10 - 0 4 46 - 57 0 0 1 7 41 1 22 48 37 101 -54 1 51 15 0 24 23 2 10 30 0 5 25 - 56 0 0 1 18 26 1 22 42 38 101 -55 2 2 3 0 35 4 2 21 20 0 16 5 - 55 0 0 1 29 39 1 22 35 38 102 -56 2 13 20 0 46 14 2 32 39 0 27 13 - 54 0 0 1 41 22 1 22 29 39 102 -57 2 25 7 0 57 53 2 44 27 0 38 50 - 53 0 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32 2 3 1 11 55 45 211 -38 32 51 34 31 12 56 33 13 29 30 51 27 21 0 0 32 30 37 1 11 48 44 212 -37 33 20 7 31 41 31 33 42 1 31 20 2 22 0 0 32 58 58 1 11 41 43 213 -36 33 48 27 32 9 54 34 10 21 31 48 26 23 0 0 33 27 8 1 11 34 42 214 -35 34 16 35 32 38 5 34 38 28 32 16 37 24 0 0 33 55 4 1 11 28 41 215 -34 34 44 29 33 6 2 35 6 22 32 44 36 25 0 0 34 22 46 1 11 22 41 216 -33 35 12 9 33 33 47 35 34 1 33 12 21 26 0 0 34 50 13 1 11 15 40 216 -33 35 39 34 34 1 17 36 1 25 33 39 52 27 0 0 35 17 26 1 11 9 39 217 -32 36 6 44 34 28 32 36 28 34 34 7 8 28 0 0 35 44 23 1 11 4 38 218 -31 36 33 38 34 55 32 36 55 26 34 34 9 29 0 0 36 11 4 1 10 58 37 219 -30 37 0 16 35 22 16 37 22 3 35 0 55 30 0 0 36 37 28 1 10 52 36 220 -29 37 26 37 35 48 43 37 48 22 35 27 24 31 0 0 37 3 35 1 10 47 36 221 -28 37 52 40 36 14 54 38 14 24 35 53 36 32 0 0 37 29 25 1 10 41 35 221 -27 38 18 26 36 40 48 38 40 8 36 19 31 33 0 0 37 54 56 1 10 36 34 222 -26 38 43 53 37 6 23 39 5 33 36 45 8 34 0 0 38 20 9 1 10 31 33 223 -25 39 9 2 37 31 40 39 30 40 37 10 27 35 0 0 38 45 4 1 10 26 32 224 -24 39 33 51 37 56 39 39 55 27 37 35 28 36 0 0 39 9 38 1 10 22 31 225 -24 39 58 21 38 21 19 40 19 55 38 0 10 37 0 0 39 33 54 1 10 17 31 225 -23 40 22 31 38 45 39 40 44 3 38 24 32 38 0 0 39 57 49 1 10 13 30 226 -22 40 46 21 39 9 39 41 7 50 38 48 35 39 0 0 40 21 24 1 10 8 29 227 -21 41 9 51 39 33 20 41 31 18 39 12 17 40 0 0 40 44 39 1 10 4 28 228 -20 41 33 0 39 56 39 41 54 24 39 35 40 41 0 0 41 7 32 1 10 0 27 228 -19 41 55 48 40 19 39 42 17 9 39 58 41 42 0 0 41 30 5 1 9 56 27 229 -19 42 18 15 40 42 17 42 39 33 40 21 22 43 0 0 41 52 16 1 9 53 26 230 -18 42 40 20 41 4 35 43 1 36 40 43 42 44 0 0 42 14 6 1 9 49 25 231 -17 43 2 4 41 26 31 43 23 17 41 5 41 45 0 0 42 35 34 1 9 45 24 231 -16 43 23 25 41 48 5 43 44 36 41 27 18 46 0 0 42 56 41 1 9 42 23 232 -15 43 44 25 42 9 18 44 5 33 41 48 33 47 0 0 43 17 25 1 9 39 23 233 -15 44 5 3 42 30 8 44 26 8 42 9 27 48 0 0 43 37 47 1 9 36 22 234 -14 44 25 19 42 50 37 44 46 20 42 29 58 49 0 0 43 57 48 1 9 33 21 234 -13 44 45 12 43 10 44 45 6 11 42 50 8 50 0 0 44 17 25 1 9 30 20 235 -12 45 4 43 43 30 28 45 25 39 43 9 55 51 0 0 44 36 41 1 9 27 20 236 -11 45 23 52 43 49 51 45 44 44 43 29 20 52 0 0 44 55 34 1 9 25 19 237 -11 45 42 38 44 8 50 46 3 27 43 48 23 53 0 0 45 14 4 1 9 22 18 237 -10 46 1 1 44 27 28 46 21 47 44 7 3 54 0 0 45 32 12 1 9 20 17 238 -9 46 19 2 44 45 42 46 39 45 44 25 21 55 0 0 45 49 57 1 9 17 17 239 -8 46 36 40 45 3 35 46 57 20 44 43 17 56 0 0 46 7 20 1 9 15 16 240 -8 46 53 56 45 21 5 47 14 33 45 0 49 57 0 0 46 24 21 1 9 13 15 240 -7 47 10 49 45 38 12 47 31 23 45 18 0 58 0 0 46 40 58 1 9 11 14 241 -6 47 27 20 45 54 56 47 47 50 45 34 47 59 0 0 46 57 14 1 9 10 14 242 -5 47 43 28 46 11 19 48 3 55 45 51 12 60 0 0 47 13 6 1 9 8 13 243 -5 47 59 14 46 27 18 48 19 37 46 7 15 61 0 0 47 28 37 1 9 6 12 243 -4 48 14 37 46 42 56 48 34 58 46 22 55 62 0 0 47 43 45 1 9 5 11 244 -3 48 29 38 46 58 10 48 49 55 46 38 13 63 0 0 47 58 30 1 9 3 11 245 -3 48 44 16 47 13 3 49 4 31 46 53 8 64 0 0 48 12 54 1 9 2 10 245 -2 48 58 33 47 27 33 49 18 44 47 7 42 65 0 0 48 26 55 1 9 1 9 246 -1 49 12 27 47 41 41 49 32 35 47 21 52 66 0 0 48 40 34 1 9 0 9 247 -1 49 25 59 47 55 27 49 46 5 47 35 41 Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs Prediction of 2013 Apr 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 2038 * constellation : Cetus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 00 25 52.6119 DE: -08 21 05.316 * position source: mpos:HIP2 pm:HIP2 plx:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .029, .015 ) * V mag [mag]: 7.6 * B mag [mag]: 8.6 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (196) Philomela approx. diameter [km]: 142 approx. diameter ["]: .092 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.13300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2013 Apr 08 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1687 number of rejected observations: 193 time covered by the observations: 1904 Nov 16 - 2012 Oct 14 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.014, 0.009, 64° remarks: * orbital elements for (196) Philomela : Mean anomaly = 84.28222176 deg Arg. of pericenter = 198.77535129 deg Long. of node = 72.52800678 deg Inclination = 7.26003056 deg Eccentricity = 0.01983546 Semimajor axis = 3.11254196 AU Perihelion dist = 3.05080326 AU Mag: H = 6.44, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56546.05300000 TDT (2013 Sep 11.053) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2013 Sep 11 196 Philomela 1h 16.8m UT 7.6 0 25 52.612- 8 21 5.32HIP 2038 8.6 11.1 142 11.8 2.133 -1.696 -12.02 -2.9709 -8.348 159.97 4.55 1.2806 -0.18930 0.39607 -6.10176 -2.91493 -0.00167 0.00035 2000 83.1957922013 9 5.00000198.775351 72.528007 7.2600310.01983546 3.1125420 3.0508033 6.5 5.00.15 RATE 1.7948620 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.032 0.018 85 1.22 0.020 0 0-1 4 056390.0020130911_P_2038 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2013 Apr 08, 03:51 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org