IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1031) Arctica / TYC 4877-00811-1 event on 2012 Dec 11, 19:35 UT Visible from Russia, China, Indonesia Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 11 UT, the 77 km diameter asteroid (1031) Arctica will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across Russia, China, Indonesia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.1 mag to 14.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.0 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 73 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 11, 19:23 - 2012 Dec 11, 19:46 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456273.31629583 * magnitude of target star: 10.5 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.1 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 9.0 * Moon: 4 % sunlit, 98° distance * Sun: 119° distance * rough path description: Russia, China, Indonesia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 78 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.79 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 6.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .036 +/- .034) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .036", .034", 97° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 8.6070 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 4877-00811-1 by 1031 Arctica on 2012 Dec 11 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 99 10 38 83 0 0 19 23 23 0 156 -29 95 59 18 102 17 12 ... .. .. 107 4 15 102 15 55 82 0 0 19 23 23 1 159 -29 99 32 45 104 56 5 95 7 24 109 4 11 104 36 7 81 0 0 19 23 24 2 162 -30 102 13 26 106 56 46 98 22 59 110 35 34 106 25 45 80 0 0 19 23 25 4 163 -31 104 18 44 108 31 19 100 54 31 111 47 14 107 53 38 79 0 0 19 23 25 5 165 -31 105 59 2 109 47 10 102 55 22 112 44 41 109 5 28 78 0 0 19 23 27 6 166 -32 107 20 57 110 49 8 104 33 51 113 31 31 110 5 3 77 0 0 19 23 28 7 167 -32 108 28 56 111 40 31 105 55 30 114 10 14 110 55 6 76 0 0 19 23 30 8 168 -33 109 26 4 112 23 37 107 4 8 114 42 34 111 37 34 75 0 0 19 23 32 9 169 -33 110 14 36 113 0 7 108 2 28 115 9 48 112 13 54 74 0 0 19 23 34 10 169 -34 110 56 10 113 31 16 108 52 30 115 32 54 112 45 10 73 0 0 19 23 36 11 170 -34 111 32 2 113 58 1 109 35 45 115 52 34 113 12 15 72 0 0 19 23 39 12 170 -35 112 3 9 114 21 5 110 13 23 116 9 23 113 35 47 71 0 0 19 23 41 13 170 -35 112 30 17 114 41 3 110 46 16 116 23 47 113 56 18 70 0 0 19 23 45 14 171 -36 112 54 1 114 58 23 111 15 9 116 36 8 114 14 14 69 0 0 19 23 48 15 171 -36 113 14 50 115 13 27 111 40 37 116 46 42 114 29 55 68 0 0 19 23 51 16 171 -37 113 33 9 115 26 33 112 3 6 116 55 44 114 43 40 67 0 0 19 23 55 17 172 -37 113 49 16 115 37 55 112 23 0 117 3 25 114 55 41 66 0 0 19 23 59 18 172 -38 114 3 27 115 47 47 112 40 38 117 9 54 115 6 11 65 0 0 19 24 3 19 172 -38 114 15 56 115 56 19 112 56 17 117 15 20 115 15 20 64 0 0 19 24 7 20 172 -38 114 26 54 116 3 40 113 10 10 117 19 50 115 23 17 63 0 0 19 24 12 21 172 -39 114 36 32 116 9 56 113 22 27 117 23 29 115 30 8 62 0 0 19 24 17 22 172 -39 114 44 56 116 15 15 113 33 19 117 26 22 115 36 0 61 0 0 19 24 22 23 172 -40 114 52 15 116 19 41 113 42 55 117 28 34 115 40 59 60 0 0 19 24 27 24 172 -40 114 58 34 116 23 21 113 51 21 117 30 8 115 45 9 59 0 0 19 24 32 25 172 -40 115 3 58 116 26 17 113 58 44 117 31 7 115 48 35 58 0 0 19 24 38 26 172 -41 115 8 33 116 28 33 114 5 10 117 31 35 115 51 20 57 0 0 19 24 44 27 172 -41 115 12 23 116 30 13 114 10 42 117 31 33 115 53 26 56 0 0 19 24 50 28 172 -42 115 15 30 116 31 19 114 15 26 117 31 4 115 54 58 55 0 0 19 24 56 29 172 -42 115 17 59 116 31 54 114 19 26 117 30 9 115 55 57 54 0 0 19 25 2 30 172 -42 115 19 52 116 32 0 114 22 43 117 28 51 115 56 26 53 0 0 19 25 9 31 172 -43 115 21 11 116 31 39 114 25 22 117 27 11 115 56 27 52 0 0 19 25 16 32 172 -43 115 21 59 116 30 52 114 27 25 117 25 10 115 56 1 51 0 0 19 25 23 33 172 -43 115 22 18 116 29 42 114 28 55 117 22 50 115 55 10 50 0 0 19 25 30 34 172 -44 115 22 9 116 28 9 114 29 53 117 20 11 115 53 56 49 0 0 19 25 37 35 172 -44 115 21 34 116 26 15 114 30 22 117 17 14 115 52 19 48 0 0 19 25 45 36 172 -44 115 20 36 116 24 1 114 30 22 117 14 1 115 50 22 47 0 0 19 25 53 37 172 -44 115 19 14 116 21 28 114 29 57 117 10 32 115 48 4 46 0 0 19 26 0 38 172 -45 115 17 30 116 18 37 114 29 6 117 6 48 115 45 28 45 0 0 19 26 9 39 172 -45 115 15 25 116 15 28 114 27 52 117 2 49 115 42 33 44 0 0 19 26 17 40 172 -45 115 13 0 116 12 3 114 26 16 116 58 36 115 39 21 43 0 0 19 26 25 41 171 -45 115 10 17 116 8 22 114 24 18 116 54 10 115 35 52 42 0 0 19 26 34 42 171 -45 115 7 16 116 4 26 114 22 0 116 49 31 115 32 7 41 0 0 19 26 43 43 171 -46 115 3 57 116 0 15 114 19 22 116 44 40 115 28 7 40 0 0 19 26 52 44 171 -46 115 0 21 115 55 51 114 16 25 116 39 36 115 23 52 39 0 0 19 27 1 45 171 -46 114 56 29 115 51 12 114 13 10 116 34 21 115 19 22 38 0 0 19 27 10 46 170 -46 114 52 22 115 46 20 114 9 38 116 28 54 115 14 39 37 0 0 19 27 20 47 170 -46 114 48 0 115 41 16 114 5 50 116 23 16 115 9 42 36 0 0 19 27 29 48 170 -46 114 43 23 115 35 59 114 1 45 116 17 28 115 4 32 35 0 0 19 27 39 49 170 -46 114 38 32 115 30 30 113 57 24 116 11 29 114 59 9 34 0 0 19 27 49 49 169 -46 114 33 27 115 24 49 113 52 48 116 5 19 114 53 33 33 0 0 19 27 59 50 169 -46 114 28 9 115 18 56 113 47 57 115 58 59 114 47 46 32 0 0 19 28 9 51 169 -46 114 22 38 115 12 52 113 42 52 115 52 29 114 41 46 31 0 0 19 28 19 52 168 -46 114 16 54 115 6 37 113 37 33 115 45 49 114 35 35 30 0 0 19 28 30 53 168 -46 114 10 58 115 0 11 113 32 0 115 39 0 114 29 12 29 0 0 19 28 40 54 168 -46 114 4 49 114 53 34 113 26 14 115 32 1 114 22 38 28 0 0 19 28 51 55 167 -46 113 58 28 114 46 47 113 20 14 115 24 53 114 15 53 27 0 0 19 29 2 56 167 -46 113 51 56 114 39 49 113 14 2 115 17 35 114 8 57 26 0 0 19 29 13 57 166 -46 113 45 12 114 32 41 113 7 37 115 10 8 114 1 50 25 0 0 19 29 24 58 166 -46 113 38 16 114 25 22 113 0 59 115 2 31 113 54 32 24 0 0 19 29 35 59 165 -46 113 31 9 114 17 54 112 54 9 114 54 46 113 47 4 23 0 0 19 29 46 60 165 -46 113 23 51 114 10 15 112 47 7 114 46 51 113 39 25 22 0 0 19 29 58 61 164 -46 113 16 21 114 2 27 112 39 52 114 38 48 113 31 35 21 0 0 19 30 9 62 163 -46 113 8 41 113 54 28 112 32 26 114 30 35 113 23 35 20 0 0 19 30 21 63 163 -46 113 0 49 113 46 20 112 24 48 114 22 13 113 15 25 19 0 0 19 30 33 64 162 -46 112 52 47 113 38 1 112 16 58 114 13 42 113 7 4 18 0 0 19 30 45 65 161 -45 112 44 33 113 29 33 112 8 56 114 5 2 112 58 33 17 0 0 19 30 57 66 160 -45 112 36 9 113 20 55 112 0 43 113 56 13 112 49 51 16 0 0 19 31 9 67 159 -45 112 27 34 113 12 7 111 52 18 113 47 14 112 40 59 15 0 0 19 31 21 67 158 -45 112 18 48 113 3 9 111 43 41 113 38 7 112 31 56 14 0 0 19 31 33 68 157 -45 112 9 51 112 54 0 111 34 53 113 28 50 112 22 43 13 0 0 19 31 45 69 156 -44 112 0 42 112 44 42 111 25 53 113 19 24 112 13 19 12 0 0 19 31 57 70 154 -44 111 51 23 112 35 14 111 16 41 113 9 48 112 3 45 11 0 0 19 32 10 71 153 -44 111 41 53 112 25 36 111 7 17 113 0 3 111 54 0 10 0 0 19 32 22 72 151 -44 111 32 12 112 15 47 110 57 42 112 50 9 111 44 4 9 0 0 19 32 35 73 149 -43 111 22 19 112 5 48 110 47 54 112 40 4 111 33 57 8 0 0 19 32 47 73 147 -43 111 12 15 111 55 38 110 37 55 112 29 50 111 23 39 7 0 0 19 33 0 74 145 -43 111 2 0 111 45 17 110 27 43 112 19 25 111 13 10 6 0 0 19 33 13 75 142 -42 110 51 32 111 34 46 110 17 19 112 8 51 111 2 29 5 0 0 19 33 25 75 140 -42 110 40 53 111 24 4 110 6 43 111 58 6 110 51 37 4 0 0 19 33 38 76 137 -42 110 30 2 111 13 10 109 55 53 111 47 11 110 40 33 3 0 0 19 33 51 77 133 -41 110 18 59 111 2 5 109 44 51 111 36 5 110 29 17 2 0 0 19 34 4 77 130 -41 110 7 44 110 50 49 109 33 36 111 24 47 110 17 49 1 0 0 19 34 17 78 126 -41 109 56 15 110 39 21 109 22 8 111 13 19 110 6 8 0 0 0 19 34 30 78 121 -40 109 44 34 110 27 41 109 10 26 111 1 40 109 54 15 - 1 0 0 19 34 43 79 117 -40 109 32 40 110 15 48 108 58 31 110 49 48 109 42 8 - 2 0 0 19 34 56 79 112 -40 109 20 32 110 3 43 108 46 21 110 37 45 109 29 49 - 3 0 0 19 35 9 79 107 -39 109 8 11 109 51 25 108 33 57 110 25 30 109 17 15 - 4 0 0 19 35 22 79 102 -39 108 55 35 109 38 53 108 21 18 110 13 1 109 4 28 - 5 0 0 19 35 35 79 97 -38 108 42 45 109 26 9 108 8 24 110 0 20 108 51 26 - 6 0 0 19 35 48 79 91 -38 108 29 41 109 13 10 107 55 14 109 47 26 108 38 9 - 7 0 0 19 36 1 79 86 -37 108 16 21 108 59 56 107 41 49 109 34 18 108 24 38 - 8 0 0 19 36 14 79 81 -37 108 2 45 108 46 28 107 28 7 109 20 56 108 10 50 - 9 0 0 19 36 27 78 77 -36 107 48 53 108 32 45 107 14 9 109 7 19 107 56 47 -10 0 0 19 36 40 78 73 -36 107 34 45 108 18 46 106 59 53 108 53 28 107 42 26 -11 0 0 19 36 53 77 69 -35 107 20 19 108 4 31 106 45 19 108 39 21 107 27 49 -12 0 0 19 37 6 77 65 -35 107 5 36 107 49 59 106 30 27 108 24 58 107 12 53 -13 0 0 19 37 19 76 62 -35 106 50 35 107 35 10 106 15 15 108 10 18 106 57 40 -14 0 0 19 37 32 75 59 -34 106 35 14 107 20 3 105 59 44 107 55 21 106 42 7 -15 0 0 19 37 44 75 56 -34 106 19 34 107 4 37 105 43 53 107 40 7 106 26 14 -16 0 0 19 37 57 74 54 -33 106 3 34 106 48 52 105 27 40 107 24 33 106 10 0 -17 0 0 19 38 10 73 51 -32 105 47 12 106 32 47 105 11 5 107 8 41 105 53 26 -18 0 0 19 38 23 72 49 -32 105 30 28 106 16 21 104 54 7 106 52 29 105 36 29 -19 0 0 19 38 36 72 48 -31 105 13 22 105 59 33 104 36 46 106 35 55 105 19 8 -20 0 0 19 38 48 71 46 -31 104 55 52 105 42 23 104 19 0 106 19 1 105 1 24 -21 0 0 19 39 1 70 45 -30 104 37 56 105 24 49 104 0 47 106 1 43 104 43 14 -22 0 0 19 39 14 69 43 -30 104 19 35 105 6 50 103 42 8 105 44 2 104 24 38 -23 0 0 19 39 26 68 42 -29 104 0 47 104 48 26 103 23 1 105 25 56 104 5 34 -24 0 0 19 39 39 67 41 -29 103 41 31 104 29 34 103 3 25 105 7 24 103 46 1 -25 0 0 19 39 51 66 40 -28 103 21 45 104 10 15 102 43 17 104 48 26 103 25 58 -26 0 0 19 40 3 65 39 -28 103 1 27 103 50 26 102 22 37 104 28 59 103 5 23 -27 0 0 19 40 16 64 39 -27 102 40 38 103 30 6 102 1 24 104 9 2 102 44 15 -28 0 0 19 40 28 63 38 -26 102 19 14 103 9 13 101 39 34 103 48 34 102 22 31 -29 0 0 19 40 40 62 37 -26 101 57 13 102 47 46 101 17 8 103 27 33 102 0 11 -30 0 0 19 40 52 61 37 -25 101 34 35 102 25 43 100 54 1 103 5 57 101 37 12 -31 0 0 19 41 4 61 36 -25 101 11 17 102 3 2 100 30 14 102 43 45 101 13 31 -32 0 0 19 41 16 60 36 -24 100 47 17 101 39 41 100 5 42 102 20 54 100 49 7 -33 0 0 19 41 27 59 35 -23 100 22 32 101 15 37 99 40 24 101 57 22 100 23 57 -34 0 0 19 41 39 58 35 -23 99 57 0 100 50 49 99 14 17 101 33 8 99 57 58 -35 0 0 19 41 51 57 35 -22 99 30 38 100 25 13 98 47 18 101 8 8 99 31 7 -36 0 0 19 42 2 56 35 -22 99 3 23 99 58 47 98 19 23 100 42 19 99 3 22 -37 0 0 19 42 13 55 34 -21 98 35 11 99 31 27 97 50 31 100 15 39 98 34 37 -38 0 0 19 42 25 54 34 -20 98 6 0 99 3 10 97 20 35 99 48 4 98 4 51 -39 0 0 19 42 36 52 34 -20 97 35 45 98 33 52 96 49 33 99 19 31 97 33 58 -40 0 0 19 42 47 51 34 -19 97 4 21 98 3 30 96 17 20 98 49 56 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 96 0 0 -42 49 35 19 43 17 49 34 -17 -41 56 14 -43 42 41 -40 31 22 -45 6 7 95 0 0 -44 28 30 19 43 34 47 35 -16 -43 37 0 -45 19 46 -42 15 8 -46 40 21 94 0 0 -46 0 50 19 43 50 45 35 -15 -45 11 4 -46 50 23 -43 52 0 -48 8 17 93 0 0 -47 27 6 19 44 5 44 35 -14 -46 38 58 -48 15 3 -45 22 30 -49 30 26 92 0 0 -48 47 49 19 44 18 42 36 -14 -48 1 12 -49 34 15 -46 47 11 -50 47 18 91 0 0 -50 3 25 19 44 30 41 36 -13 -49 18 14 -50 48 26 -48 6 30 -51 59 16 90 0 0 -51 14 18 19 44 41 39 37 -12 -50 30 27 -51 57 59 -49 20 52 -53 6 45 89 0 0 -52 20 50 19 44 52 38 37 -11 -51 38 15 -53 3 17 -50 30 40 -54 10 5 88 0 0 -53 23 22 19 45 1 37 38 -10 -52 41 58 -54 4 38 -51 36 17 -55 9 36 87 0 0 -54 22 11 19 45 10 36 39 -10 -53 41 54 -55 2 21 -52 38 0 -56 5 36 86 0 0 -55 17 35 19 45 18 35 39 -9 -54 38 21 -55 56 43 -53 36 8 -56 58 19 85 0 0 -56 9 48 19 45 26 34 40 -9 -55 31 34 -56 47 57 -54 30 55 -57 48 0 84 0 0 -56 59 5 19 45 33 33 41 -8 -56 21 47 -57 36 17 -55 22 37 -58 34 54 83 0 0 -57 45 37 19 45 40 32 42 -7 -57 9 12 -58 21 57 -56 11 27 -59 19 10 82 0 0 -58 29 36 19 45 46 31 42 -7 -57 54 1 -59 5 6 -56 57 37 -60 1 2 81 0 0 -59 11 13 19 45 52 30 43 -6 -58 36 26 -59 45 56 -57 41 17 -60 40 37 80 0 0 -59 50 37 19 45 57 29 44 -6 -59 16 35 -60 24 35 -58 22 38 -61 18 6 79 0 0 -60 27 58 19 46 2 29 45 -5 -59 54 38 -61 1 13 -59 1 48 -61 53 38 78 0 0 -61 3 22 19 46 7 28 45 -5 -60 30 42 -61 35 57 -59 38 57 -62 27 18 77 0 0 -61 36 57 19 46 11 27 46 -5 -61 4 56 -62 8 54 -60 14 12 -62 59 16 76 0 0 -62 8 51 19 46 15 26 47 -4 -61 37 26 -62 40 12 -60 47 40 -63 29 36 75 0 0 -62 39 8 19 46 19 26 48 -4 -62 8 18 -63 9 55 -61 19 27 -63 58 25 74 0 0 -63 7 56 19 46 23 25 49 -3 -62 37 39 -63 38 10 -61 49 40 -64 25 49 73 0 0 -63 35 19 19 46 27 24 50 -3 -63 5 33 -64 5 2 -62 18 24 -64 51 52 72 0 0 -64 1 23 19 46 30 24 51 -3 -63 32 6 -64 30 36 -62 45 45 -65 16 39 71 0 0 -64 26 10 19 46 33 23 51 -2 -63 57 22 -64 54 55 -63 11 46 -65 40 14 70 0 0 -64 49 47 19 46 36 23 52 -2 -64 21 26 -65 18 5 -63 36 32 -66 2 42 69 0 0 -65 12 16 19 46 39 22 53 -2 -64 44 21 -65 40 8 -64 0 8 -66 24 5 68 0 0 -65 33 41 19 46 41 21 54 -1 -65 6 10 -66 1 9 -64 22 36 -66 44 28 67 0 0 -65 54 6 19 46 44 21 55 -1 -65 26 58 -66 21 10 -64 44 1 -67 3 53 66 0 0 -66 13 33 19 46 46 20 56 -1 -65 46 47 -66 40 15 -65 4 25 -67 22 23 65 0 0 -66 32 5 19 46 49 20 57 0 -66 5 41 -66 58 26 -65 23 52 -67 40 1 64 0 0 -66 49 45 19 46 51 19 58 0 -66 23 41 -67 15 47 -65 42 25 -67 56 49 Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 4877-00811-1 * constellation : Hydra * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 08 58 15.9664 DE: -06 03 02.231 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .026, .031 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.5 * B mag [mag]: 11.8 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1031) Arctica approx. diameter [km]: 77 approx. diameter ["]: .046 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.31700 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 29 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1081 number of rejected observations: 71 time covered by the observations: 1913 May 09 - 2012 Nov 29 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.026, 0.013, 103° remarks: * orbital elements for (1031) Arctica : Mean anomaly = 321.02609268 deg Arg. of pericenter = 305.96831859 deg Long. of node = 218.94604436 deg Inclination = 17.63566964 deg Eccentricity = 0.05633563 Semimajor axis = 3.04731998 AU Perihelion dist = 2.87564728 AU Mag: H = 9.47, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56272.81600000 TDT (2012 Dec 11.816) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 11 1031 Arctica 19h 35.5m UT 10.5 8 58 15.966- 6 3 2.23TYC 4877-00811-1 11.8 14.6 77 9.0 2.317 -0.174 -18.25 119.7840 -6.046 -115.46 -23.07 19.5911 -0.18624 0.02688 -0.68082 -4.81007 -0.00456 0.00267 2000 320.504346201212 9.00000305.968319218.946044 17.6356700.05633563 3.0473200 2.8756473 9.6 5.00.15 RATE 1.8527940 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.036 0.034 97 1.79 0.036 0 0 4-1 056264.0020121211_0811-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 29, 23:09 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org