IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (388) Charybdis / UCAC2 42913552 event on 2012 Dec 03, 00:07 UT Visible from India, SW Asia, Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 03 UT, the 147 km diameter asteroid (388) Charybdis will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across India, SW Asia, Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 14.4 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 02, 23:58 - 2012 Dec 03, 00:17 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456264.50509167 * magnitude of target star: 11.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.4 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 14.4 * Moon: 83 % sunlit, 23° distance * Sun: 149° distance * rough path description: India, SW Asia, Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 148 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.33 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .031 +/- .030) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .031", .030", 94° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 10.2182 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 42913552 by 388 Charybdis on 2012 Dec 2 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 75 0 0 18 21 21 24 17 39 1 56 -27 19 9 32 17 33 16 19 41 22 .. .. .. - 74 0 0 18 59 19 24 17 39 2 57 -28 19 47 22 18 11 20 20 19 9 17 39 43 - 73 0 0 19 36 50 24 17 38 3 57 -29 20 24 46 18 48 59 20 56 28 18 17 26 - 72 0 0 20 13 54 24 17 37 4 57 -30 21 1 43 19 26 10 21 33 19 18 54 42 - 71 0 0 20 50 30 24 17 36 5 58 -31 21 38 11 20 2 53 22 9 42 19 31 30 - 70 0 0 21 26 37 24 17 35 6 58 -32 22 14 10 20 39 8 22 45 36 20 7 50 - 69 0 0 22 2 14 24 17 34 7 58 -33 22 49 40 21 14 54 23 21 1 20 43 41 - 68 0 0 22 37 22 24 17 32 8 59 -34 23 24 39 21 50 10 23 55 55 21 19 3 - 67 0 0 23 11 59 24 17 30 9 59 -35 23 59 8 22 24 55 24 30 18 21 53 54 - 66 0 0 23 46 6 24 17 28 10 60 -36 24 33 6 22 59 10 25 4 10 22 28 14 - 65 0 0 24 19 41 24 17 26 12 60 -37 25 6 32 23 32 54 25 37 30 23 2 3 - 64 0 0 24 52 44 24 17 24 13 60 -38 25 39 26 24 6 6 26 10 19 23 35 21 - 63 0 0 25 25 14 24 17 21 14 61 -39 26 11 48 24 38 45 26 42 35 24 8 7 - 62 0 0 25 57 13 24 17 18 15 61 -40 26 43 37 25 10 53 27 14 18 24 40 20 - 61 0 0 26 28 38 24 17 15 16 62 -41 27 14 54 25 42 27 27 45 28 25 12 1 - 60 0 0 26 59 31 24 17 12 17 62 -42 27 45 37 26 13 29 28 16 6 25 43 8 - 59 0 0 27 29 50 24 17 9 18 63 -43 28 15 47 26 43 58 28 46 10 26 13 43 - 58 0 0 27 59 36 24 17 5 19 63 -44 28 45 24 27 13 53 29 15 40 26 43 44 - 57 0 0 28 28 49 24 17 2 20 64 -44 29 14 27 27 43 15 29 44 38 27 13 12 - 56 0 0 28 57 28 24 16 58 21 64 -45 29 42 57 28 12 3 30 13 1 27 42 7 - 55 0 0 29 25 33 24 16 54 22 65 -46 30 10 53 28 40 18 30 40 51 28 10 28 - 54 0 0 29 53 5 24 16 50 23 65 -47 30 38 16 29 7 59 31 8 7 28 38 15 - 53 0 0 30 20 3 24 16 46 24 66 -48 31 5 4 29 35 6 31 34 50 29 5 28 - 52 0 0 30 46 27 24 16 42 25 66 -49 31 31 19 30 1 40 32 0 59 29 32 8 - 51 0 0 31 12 18 24 16 37 25 67 -50 31 57 1 30 27 40 32 26 34 29 58 14 - 50 0 0 31 37 36 24 16 33 26 67 -50 32 22 9 30 53 6 32 51 36 30 23 47 - 49 0 0 32 2 20 24 16 28 27 68 -51 32 46 44 31 17 59 33 16 5 30 48 46 - 48 0 0 32 26 30 24 16 23 28 68 -52 33 10 46 31 42 19 33 40 1 31 13 11 - 47 0 0 32 50 7 24 16 19 29 69 -53 33 34 14 32 6 5 34 3 23 31 37 3 - 46 0 0 33 13 12 24 16 14 30 69 -54 33 57 9 32 29 18 34 26 13 32 0 22 - 45 0 0 33 35 43 24 16 9 31 70 -54 34 19 32 32 51 59 34 48 29 32 23 8 - 44 0 0 33 57 42 24 16 3 32 71 -55 34 41 22 33 14 6 35 10 13 32 45 21 - 43 0 0 34 19 8 24 15 58 33 71 -56 35 2 39 33 35 40 35 31 25 33 7 2 - 42 0 0 34 40 1 24 15 53 34 72 -57 35 23 24 33 56 42 35 52 5 33 28 9 - 41 0 0 35 0 23 24 15 48 34 72 -57 35 43 37 34 17 12 36 12 12 33 48 44 - 40 0 0 35 20 12 24 15 42 35 73 -58 36 3 19 34 37 10 36 31 48 34 8 47 - 39 0 0 35 39 30 24 15 37 36 74 -59 36 22 28 34 56 35 36 50 52 34 28 18 - 38 0 0 35 58 16 24 15 31 37 74 -59 36 41 6 35 15 29 37 9 25 34 47 18 - 37 0 0 36 16 30 24 15 25 38 75 -60 36 59 13 35 33 52 37 27 27 35 5 45 - 36 0 0 36 34 14 24 15 20 39 76 -61 37 16 49 35 51 43 37 44 57 35 23 41 - 35 0 0 36 51 27 24 15 14 40 76 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41 16 4 39 54 38 41 43 0 39 27 49 23 0 0 40 26 42 24 8 26 80 150 -60 41 7 31 39 45 57 41 34 30 39 19 5 24 0 0 40 17 39 24 8 18 81 154 -60 40 58 32 39 36 49 41 25 33 39 9 54 25 0 0 40 8 8 24 8 10 81 159 -59 40 49 6 39 27 14 41 16 10 39 0 16 26 0 0 39 58 11 24 8 2 81 164 -59 40 39 14 39 17 12 41 6 21 38 50 11 27 0 0 39 47 47 24 7 54 82 170 -58 40 28 54 39 6 43 40 56 5 38 39 39 28 0 0 39 36 55 24 7 45 82 176 -57 40 18 8 38 55 46 40 45 22 38 28 39 29 0 0 39 25 36 24 7 37 82 182 -57 40 6 54 38 44 22 40 34 12 38 17 11 30 0 0 39 13 50 24 7 28 82 189 -56 39 55 13 38 32 30 40 22 34 38 5 15 31 0 0 39 1 35 24 7 20 82 195 -55 39 43 4 38 20 10 40 10 29 37 52 52 32 0 0 38 48 53 24 7 12 82 202 -55 39 30 28 38 7 22 39 57 57 37 40 0 33 0 0 38 35 43 24 7 3 82 209 -54 39 17 24 37 54 6 39 44 57 37 26 40 34 0 0 38 22 5 24 6 54 82 215 -53 39 3 52 37 40 22 39 31 28 37 12 52 35 0 0 38 7 58 24 6 46 82 221 -53 38 49 51 37 26 9 39 17 32 36 58 35 36 0 0 37 53 22 24 6 37 81 227 -52 38 35 22 37 11 27 39 3 7 36 43 49 37 0 0 37 38 18 24 6 28 81 232 -51 38 20 25 36 56 16 38 48 14 36 28 34 38 0 0 37 22 45 24 6 20 80 237 -51 38 4 58 36 40 36 38 32 52 36 12 49 39 0 0 37 6 43 24 6 11 80 241 -50 37 49 3 36 24 27 38 17 2 35 56 36 40 0 0 36 50 12 24 6 2 79 245 -49 37 32 38 36 7 49 38 0 42 35 39 53 41 0 0 36 33 11 24 5 53 79 249 -49 37 15 45 35 50 41 37 43 53 35 22 40 42 0 0 36 15 40 24 5 44 78 252 -48 36 58 21 35 33 3 37 26 34 35 4 57 43 0 0 35 57 39 24 5 35 78 255 -47 36 40 28 35 14 55 37 8 46 34 46 45 44 0 0 35 39 9 24 5 26 77 258 -46 36 22 5 34 56 17 36 50 28 34 28 2 45 0 0 35 20 8 24 5 17 76 261 -46 36 3 12 34 37 9 36 31 40 34 8 49 46 0 0 35 0 38 24 5 8 76 263 -45 35 43 49 34 17 30 36 12 22 33 49 5 47 0 0 34 40 36 24 4 59 75 265 -44 35 23 56 33 57 21 35 52 34 33 28 51 48 0 0 34 20 4 24 4 50 74 267 -43 35 3 32 33 36 41 35 32 15 33 8 6 49 0 0 33 59 2 24 4 41 73 269 -42 34 42 37 33 15 31 35 11 26 32 46 50 50 0 0 33 37 28 24 4 31 73 271 -42 34 21 12 32 53 49 34 50 6 32 25 3 51 0 0 33 15 24 24 4 22 72 272 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25 55 53 66 0 0 26 41 53 24 2 2 58 288 -28 27 27 51 25 56 1 27 58 13 25 25 48 67 0 0 26 11 32 24 1 53 57 289 -27 26 57 37 25 25 32 27 28 5 24 55 12 68 0 0 25 40 40 24 1 44 56 290 -26 26 26 53 24 54 32 26 57 26 24 24 7 69 0 0 25 9 18 24 1 34 55 291 -25 25 55 39 24 23 2 26 26 18 23 52 32 70 0 0 24 37 27 24 1 25 54 291 -24 25 23 56 23 51 3 25 54 39 23 20 28 71 0 0 24 5 6 24 1 16 53 292 -23 24 51 43 23 18 35 25 22 32 22 47 55 72 0 0 23 32 17 24 1 7 52 292 -22 24 19 1 22 45 38 24 49 55 22 14 54 73 0 0 22 59 0 24 0 58 51 293 -21 23 45 51 22 12 13 24 16 50 21 41 24 74 0 0 22 25 14 24 0 49 50 294 -20 23 12 13 21 38 21 23 43 17 21 7 27 75 0 0 21 51 2 24 0 40 49 294 -19 22 38 7 21 4 1 23 9 15 20 33 2 76 0 0 21 16 22 24 0 31 48 295 -18 22 3 35 20 29 15 22 34 47 19 58 11 77 0 0 20 41 16 24 0 23 47 295 -17 21 28 35 19 54 2 21 59 52 19 22 54 78 0 0 20 5 45 24 0 14 46 296 -16 20 53 10 19 18 24 21 24 32 18 47 12 79 0 0 19 29 48 24 0 5 45 296 -15 20 17 20 18 42 21 20 48 46 18 11 5 80 0 0 18 53 27 23 59 57 44 297 -14 19 41 5 18 5 55 20 12 35 17 34 35 81 0 0 18 16 43 23 59 49 43 297 -13 19 4 27 17 29 5 19 36 0 16 57 41 82 0 0 17 39 36 23 59 41 42 297 -11 18 27 25 16 51 52 18 59 2 16 20 25 83 0 0 17 2 7 23 59 33 41 298 -10 17 50 2 16 14 18 18 21 42 15 42 47 84 0 0 16 24 18 23 59 25 39 298 -9 17 12 17 15 36 24 17 44 0 15 4 49 85 0 0 15 46 8 23 59 17 38 299 -8 16 34 12 14 58 9 17 5 58 14 26 32 86 0 0 15 7 39 23 59 9 37 299 -7 15 55 47 14 19 36 16 27 36 13 47 55 87 0 0 14 28 51 23 59 2 36 299 -6 15 17 4 13 40 44 15 48 56 13 9 1 88 0 0 13 49 47 23 58 54 35 300 -5 14 38 3 13 1 36 15 9 58 12 29 51 89 0 0 13 10 27 23 58 47 34 300 -4 13 58 46 12 22 12 14 30 43 11 50 25 90 0 0 12 30 51 23 58 40 33 300 -3 13 19 14 11 42 34 13 51 13 11 10 44 91 0 0 11 51 2 23 58 34 32 300 -2 12 39 28 11 2 42 13 11 28 10 30 51 92 0 0 11 11 1 23 58 27 30 301 0 11 59 28 10 22 38 12 31 31 9 50 45 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 42913552 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 06 50 29.5660 DE: +31 55 48.121 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .021, .026 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.2 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (388) Charybdis approx. diameter [km]: 147 approx. diameter ["]: .091 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.21700 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1102 number of rejected observations: 106 time covered by the observations: 1900 Apr 26 - 2012 Nov 07 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.023, 0.014, 97° remarks: * orbital elements for (388) Charybdis : Mean anomaly = 116.97480122 deg Arg. of pericenter = 334.09706038 deg Long. of node = 354.36932762 deg Inclination = 6.44089694 deg Eccentricity = 0.06306824 Semimajor axis = 3.00824453 AU Perihelion dist = 2.81851984 AU Mag: H = 8.50, G = 0.07 Epoch of elements : MJD 56264.00500000 TDT (2012 Dec 03.005) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 3 388 Charybdis 0h 7.3m UT 11.2 6 50 29.566 31 55 48.12UCAC2 42913552 0.0 13.4 147 14.4 2.217 -1.744 5.59 28.5581 31.929 175.61 -22.12 0.1222 0.03035 0.12071 -5.59262 1.40934 -0.00305 -0.00054 2000 116.21825220121129.00000334.097060354.369328 6.4408970.06306824 3.0082445 2.8185198 8.6 5.00.07 RATE 1.8890110 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.031 0.030 94 1.33 0.030 0 0 0 1 056264.0020121203_913552 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 09:24 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org