IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (48) Doris / UCAC2 36610524 event on 2012 Dec 02, 20:14 UT Visible from S China, SE Asia, India, Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Dec 02 UT, the 200 km diameter asteroid (48) Doris will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across S China, SE Asia, India, Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.7 mag to 11.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 20.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Dec 02, 20:04 - 2012 Dec 02, 20:25 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456264.34330417 * magnitude of target star: 11.5 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.7 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 20.7 * Moon: 85 % sunlit, 21° distance * Sun: 153° distance * rough path description: S China, SE Asia, India, Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 200 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.29 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 5.4 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .038 +/- .040) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .040", .038", 0° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 9.6683 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 36610524 by 48 Doris on 2012 Dec 2 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 10 0 0 - 5 11 2 20 25 20 1 76 -24 - 4 15 4 - 6 6 58 - 3 42 35 - 6 39 23 - 9 0 0 - 4 56 4 20 25 20 2 76 -25 - 4 0 4 - 5 52 1 - 3 27 34 - 6 24 28 - 8 0 0 - 4 40 57 20 25 19 3 76 -26 - 3 44 55 - 5 36 56 - 3 12 24 - 6 9 24 - 7 0 0 - 4 25 41 20 25 19 4 76 -27 - 3 29 37 - 5 21 42 - 2 57 5 - 5 54 11 - 6 0 0 - 4 10 17 20 25 18 5 76 -28 - 3 14 12 - 5 6 20 - 2 41 38 - 5 38 50 - 5 0 0 - 3 54 45 20 25 17 6 76 -29 - 2 58 38 - 4 50 50 - 2 26 3 - 5 23 21 - 4 0 0 - 3 39 5 20 25 15 7 76 -30 - 2 42 56 - 4 35 12 - 2 10 21 - 5 7 43 - 3 0 0 - 3 23 18 20 25 14 8 76 -31 - 2 27 8 - 4 19 26 - 1 54 31 - 4 51 59 - 2 0 0 - 3 7 24 20 25 12 9 76 -32 - 2 11 12 - 4 3 33 - 1 38 34 - 4 36 7 - 1 0 0 - 2 51 23 20 25 10 10 76 -33 - 1 55 9 - 3 47 34 - 1 22 31 - 4 20 8 0 0 0 - 2 35 15 20 25 8 11 75 -34 - 1 39 0 - 3 31 28 - 1 6 21 - 4 4 3 1 0 0 - 2 19 2 20 25 6 12 75 -35 - 1 22 46 - 3 15 16 - 0 50 6 - 3 47 52 2 0 0 - 2 2 43 20 25 3 13 75 -36 - 1 6 25 - 2 58 58 - 0 33 45 - 3 31 34 3 0 0 - 1 46 18 20 25 0 14 75 -37 - 0 49 59 - 2 42 34 - 0 17 18 - 3 15 12 4 0 0 - 1 29 48 20 24 57 15 75 -38 - 0 33 28 - 2 26 6 - 0 0 46 - 2 58 44 5 0 0 - 1 13 14 20 24 54 16 75 -39 - 0 16 53 - 2 9 32 0 15 50 - 2 42 11 6 0 0 - 0 56 35 20 24 51 17 75 -40 - 0 0 13 - 1 52 54 0 32 30 - 2 25 34 7 0 0 - 0 39 52 20 24 47 18 75 -41 0 16 31 - 1 36 12 0 49 15 - 2 8 52 8 0 0 - 0 23 5 20 24 43 19 75 -42 0 33 18 - 1 19 27 1 6 2 - 1 52 7 9 0 0 - 0 6 15 20 24 39 20 75 -43 0 50 9 - 1 2 37 1 22 54 - 1 35 18 10 0 0 0 10 38 20 24 35 21 75 -44 1 7 3 - 0 45 45 1 39 48 - 1 18 26 11 0 0 0 27 33 20 24 31 22 75 -45 1 23 59 - 0 28 50 1 56 44 - 1 1 32 12 0 0 0 44 31 20 24 26 23 75 -46 1 40 58 - 0 11 53 2 13 43 - 0 44 35 13 0 0 1 1 31 20 24 22 24 75 -47 1 57 58 0 5 7 2 30 44 - 0 27 35 14 0 0 1 18 33 20 24 17 25 75 -48 2 15 0 0 22 8 2 47 46 - 0 10 34 15 0 0 1 35 36 20 24 11 26 75 -49 2 32 3 0 39 11 3 4 49 0 6 28 16 0 0 1 52 39 20 24 6 27 75 -50 2 49 7 0 56 14 3 21 54 0 23 31 17 0 0 2 9 44 20 24 1 28 76 -51 3 6 12 1 13 18 3 38 58 0 40 36 18 0 0 2 26 49 20 23 55 29 76 -52 3 23 17 1 30 23 3 56 3 0 57 40 19 0 0 2 43 53 20 23 49 30 76 -53 3 40 21 1 47 28 4 13 8 1 14 45 20 0 0 3 0 57 20 23 43 31 76 -54 3 57 25 2 4 32 4 30 12 1 31 49 21 0 0 3 18 1 20 23 37 32 76 -55 4 14 29 2 21 36 4 47 15 1 48 53 22 0 0 3 35 3 20 23 31 33 76 -56 4 31 31 2 38 38 5 4 17 2 5 56 23 0 0 3 52 4 20 23 24 34 76 -57 4 48 32 2 55 39 5 21 18 2 22 57 24 0 0 4 9 3 20 23 18 35 76 -58 5 5 30 3 12 39 5 38 16 2 39 57 25 0 0 4 26 1 20 23 11 36 76 -59 5 22 27 3 29 37 5 55 13 2 56 55 26 0 0 4 42 55 20 23 4 37 76 -60 5 39 21 3 46 32 6 12 7 3 13 50 27 0 0 4 59 47 20 22 57 38 76 -61 5 56 13 4 3 25 6 28 58 3 30 43 28 0 0 5 16 36 20 22 49 39 76 -62 6 13 1 4 20 14 6 45 46 3 47 33 29 0 0 5 33 22 20 22 42 40 77 -62 6 29 46 4 37 1 7 2 30 4 4 20 30 0 0 5 50 4 20 22 34 41 77 -63 6 46 27 4 53 43 7 19 11 4 21 3 31 0 0 6 6 42 20 22 27 42 77 -64 7 3 5 5 10 22 7 35 48 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133 0 0 18 40 8 20 6 10 42 272 -18 19 34 37 17 45 41 20 6 15 17 14 7 134 0 0 18 35 16 20 6 3 41 272 -17 19 29 47 17 40 47 20 1 25 17 9 13 135 0 0 18 30 8 20 5 56 40 273 -17 19 24 40 17 35 39 19 56 20 17 4 3 136 0 0 18 24 46 20 5 49 39 273 -16 19 19 19 17 30 15 19 50 59 16 58 38 137 0 0 18 19 7 20 5 43 38 273 -15 19 13 42 17 24 35 19 45 23 16 52 58 138 0 0 18 13 14 20 5 36 37 274 -14 19 7 50 17 18 40 19 39 32 16 47 2 139 0 0 18 7 5 20 5 30 36 274 -13 19 1 43 17 12 30 19 33 25 16 40 51 140 0 0 18 0 41 20 5 23 35 274 -12 18 55 20 17 6 4 19 27 4 16 34 24 141 0 0 17 54 2 20 5 17 34 275 -11 18 48 43 16 59 23 19 20 27 16 27 42 142 0 0 17 47 7 20 5 11 33 275 -10 18 41 50 16 52 27 19 13 35 16 20 45 143 0 0 17 39 58 20 5 5 32 275 -9 18 34 42 16 45 16 19 6 28 16 13 33 144 0 0 17 32 33 20 5 0 31 276 -8 18 27 19 16 37 49 18 59 6 16 6 5 145 0 0 17 24 53 20 4 54 30 276 -8 18 19 41 16 30 7 18 51 29 15 58 23 146 0 0 17 16 58 20 4 49 30 276 -7 18 11 48 16 22 11 18 43 38 15 50 25 147 0 0 17 8 48 20 4 43 29 277 -6 18 3 40 16 13 59 18 35 31 15 42 12 148 0 0 17 0 24 20 4 38 28 277 -5 17 55 17 16 5 32 18 27 9 15 33 44 149 0 0 16 51 44 20 4 33 27 277 -4 17 46 40 15 56 51 18 18 33 15 25 1 150 0 0 16 42 50 20 4 28 26 278 -3 17 37 48 15 47 54 18 9 42 15 16 4 151 0 0 16 33 41 20 4 24 25 278 -2 17 28 41 15 38 43 18 0 36 15 6 52 152 0 0 16 24 17 20 4 19 24 278 -1 17 19 19 15 29 18 17 51 16 14 57 25 153 0 0 16 14 39 20 4 15 23 278 0 17 9 43 15 19 37 17 41 41 14 47 43 Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 36610524 * constellation : Orion * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 06 24 43.0314 DE: +13 45 14.691 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .034, .039 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.5 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (48) Doris approx. diameter [km]: 200 approx. diameter ["]: .140 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.97000 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1479 number of rejected observations: 146 time covered by the observations: 1913 Nov 21 - 2012 Nov 08 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.016, 0.009, 92° remarks: * orbital elements for (48) Doris : Mean anomaly = 8.46492331 deg Arg. of pericenter = 254.21228089 deg Long. of node = 183.63722891 deg Inclination = 6.54546084 deg Eccentricity = 0.07477066 Semimajor axis = 3.11350303 AU Perihelion dist = 2.88070434 AU Mag: H = 7.05, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56263.84300000 TDT (2012 Dec 02.843) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Dec 2 48 Doris 20h 14.4m UT 11.5 6 24 43.031 13 45 14.69UCAC2 36610524 0.0 11.3 200 20.7 1.970 -1.655 -3.64 80.5172 13.755 -126.16 -22.10 20.2393 -0.00820 0.05355 -5.39578 -0.81561 -0.00250 0.00100 2000 7.77547720121129.00000254.212281183.637229 6.5454610.07477066 3.1135030 2.8807044 6.9 5.00.15 RATE 1.7940310 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.040 0.038 0 1.29 0.040 0 0 4 1 056247.0020121202_610524 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 09:23 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org