IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (451) Patientia / 2UCAC 40683044 event on 2012 Nov 28, 01:05 UT Visible from Russia, Arabia, Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 28 UT, the 235 km diameter asteroid (451) Patientia will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Russia, Arabia, Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 11.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 36.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 63 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 28, 00:52 - 2012 Nov 28, 01:24 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456259.5471375 * magnitude of target star: 12.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.5 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 36.3 * Moon: 100 % sunlit, 59° distance * Sun: 127° distance * rough path description: Russia, Arabia, Africa Additional comments ------------------- 4" double star The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 235 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.97 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 35.0 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .144 +/- .144) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .144", .144", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 6.4676 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of 2UCAC 40683044 by 451 Patientia on 2012 Nov 28 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude 47 25 34 -45 35 19 0 52 24 19 355 -2 45 54 56 -45 34 9 48 56 44 -45 38 40 42 59 41 -45 38 3 51 56 5 -45 51 40 46 56 48 -41 33 8 0 52 49 23 355 -4 45 32 6 -41 32 33 48 21 52 -41 35 24 42 48 10 -41 36 14 51 8 32 -41 44 48 46 34 2 -38 5 25 0 53 14 27 356 -6 45 13 31 -38 5 10 47 54 49 -38 7 5 42 37 36 -38 8 42 50 32 45 -38 14 27 46 14 46 -35 0 5 0 53 40 30 356 -8 44 57 25 -35 0 3 47 32 20 -35 1 22 42 27 36 -35 3 27 50 3 47 -35 7 24 45 57 51 -32 10 43 0 54 5 33 356 -10 44 43 0 -32 10 49 47 12 53 -32 11 43 42 17 58 -32 14 7 49 39 14 -32 16 49 45 42 35 -29 33 26 0 54 30 35 356 -11 44 29 45 -29 33 38 46 55 33 -29 34 14 42 8 37 -29 36 52 49 17 50 -29 38 39 45 28 32 -27 5 42 0 54 55 38 356 -13 44 17 22 -27 5 59 46 39 50 -27 6 20 41 59 27 -27 9 8 48 58 44 -27 10 13 45 15 27 -24 45 43 0 55 20 40 356 -14 44 5 41 -24 46 4 46 25 20 -24 46 14 41 50 27 -24 49 10 48 41 26 -24 49 41 45 3 7 -22 32 11 0 55 45 42 356 -15 43 54 32 -22 32 35 46 11 49 -22 32 35 41 41 34 -22 35 38 48 25 34 -22 35 42 44 51 25 -20 24 5 0 56 10 44 356 -17 43 43 49 -20 24 32 45 59 6 -20 24 25 41 32 47 -20 27 33 48 10 51 -20 27 14 44 40 13 -18 20 40 0 56 35 46 356 -18 43 33 28 -18 21 9 45 47 3 -18 20 55 41 24 4 -18 24 8 47 57 7 -18 23 30 44 29 27 -16 21 18 0 57 0 48 356 -19 43 23 25 -16 21 48 45 35 33 -16 21 30 41 15 25 -16 24 46 47 44 11 -16 23 52 44 19 3 -14 25 29 0 57 25 50 356 -20 43 13 37 -14 26 1 45 24 32 -14 25 37 41 6 48 -14 28 57 47 31 57 -14 27 49 44 8 58 -12 32 47 0 57 50 52 355 -21 43 4 3 -12 33 20 45 13 57 -12 32 53 40 58 13 -12 36 15 47 20 20 -12 34 55 43 59 10 -10 42 52 0 58 16 54 355 -22 42 54 41 -10 43 26 45 3 43 -10 42 55 40 49 40 -10 46 20 47 9 15 -10 44 50 43 49 36 - 8 55 25 0 58 41 56 355 -23 42 45 28 - 8 56 1 44 53 48 - 8 55 26 40 41 8 - 8 58 54 46 58 39 - 8 57 14 43 40 16 - 7 10 12 0 59 6 58 355 -23 42 36 24 - 7 10 48 44 44 11 - 7 10 11 40 32 36 - 7 13 41 46 48 29 - 7 11 52 43 31 7 - 5 26 58 0 59 31 59 355 -24 42 27 28 - 5 27 35 44 34 50 - 5 26 55 40 24 4 - 5 30 27 46 38 42 - 5 28 31 43 22 9 - 3 45 31 0 59 56 61 355 -25 42 18 39 - 3 46 10 44 25 42 - 3 45 28 40 15 33 - 3 49 2 46 29 16 - 3 46 58 43 13 20 - 2 5 43 1 0 21 63 354 -26 42 9 56 - 2 6 22 44 16 48 - 2 5 38 40 7 1 - 2 9 14 46 20 10 - 2 7 4 43 4 40 - 0 27 23 1 0 46 64 354 -26 42 1 19 - 0 28 2 44 8 5 - 0 27 16 39 58 28 - 0 30 54 46 11 22 - 0 28 39 42 56 8 1 9 38 1 1 11 66 354 -27 41 52 46 1 8 57 43 59 34 1 9 46 39 49 55 1 6 5 46 2 51 1 8 27 42 47 44 2 45 26 1 1 36 67 354 -28 41 44 18 2 44 45 43 51 13 2 45 35 39 41 20 2 41 52 45 54 36 2 44 19 42 39 26 4 20 9 1 2 1 69 353 -28 41 35 54 4 19 27 43 43 1 4 20 19 39 32 43 4 16 34 45 46 37 4 19 5 42 31 14 5 53 52 1 2 26 71 353 -29 41 27 33 5 53 10 43 34 59 5 54 3 39 24 4 5 50 16 45 38 52 5 52 52 42 23 9 7 26 42 1 2 52 72 352 -30 41 19 16 7 25 59 43 27 5 7 26 54 39 15 24 7 23 5 45 31 22 7 25 45 42 15 9 8 58 45 1 3 17 74 352 -30 41 11 1 8 58 1 43 19 20 8 58 57 39 6 41 8 55 6 45 24 5 8 57 50 42 7 14 10 30 4 1 3 42 75 351 -31 41 2 49 10 29 19 43 11 43 10 30 16 38 57 55 10 26 23 45 17 1 10 29 11 41 59 25 12 0 44 1 4 7 77 350 -31 40 54 39 11 59 59 43 4 14 12 0 58 38 49 6 11 57 2 45 10 11 11 59 54 41 51 40 13 30 51 1 4 32 78 349 -32 40 46 31 13 30 5 42 56 52 13 31 5 38 40 14 13 27 7 45 3 33 13 30 3 41 44 0 15 0 28 1 4 57 79 348 -32 40 38 25 14 59 42 42 49 37 15 0 43 38 31 18 14 56 42 44 57 9 14 59 41 41 36 24 16 29 40 1 5 22 81 346 -32 40 30 21 16 28 53 42 42 30 16 29 55 38 22 18 16 25 52 44 50 58 16 28 54 41 28 53 17 58 29 1 5 47 82 343 -33 40 22 18 17 57 42 42 35 31 17 58 45 38 13 14 17 54 39 44 44 59 17 57 45 41 21 26 19 27 1 1 6 12 84 340 -33 40 14 16 19 26 13 42 28 38 19 27 17 38 4 5 19 23 9 44 39 15 19 26 17 41 14 3 20 55 18 1 6 37 85 334 -34 40 6 15 20 54 29 42 21 53 20 55 34 37 54 50 20 51 23 44 33 43 20 54 34 41 6 44 22 23 24 1 7 2 86 324 -34 39 58 15 22 22 35 42 15 16 22 23 41 37 45 30 22 19 27 44 28 26 22 22 41 40 59 29 23 51 23 1 7 28 87 304 -34 39 50 15 23 50 33 42 8 46 23 51 40 37 36 4 23 47 22 44 23 24 23 50 39 40 52 18 25 19 17 1 7 53 87 269 -34 39 42 16 25 18 26 42 2 24 25 19 35 37 26 31 25 15 14 44 18 36 25 18 34 40 45 12 26 47 11 1 8 18 87 235 -35 39 34 17 26 46 20 41 56 10 26 47 29 37 16 50 26 43 5 44 14 4 26 46 27 40 38 9 28 15 8 1 8 43 86 215 -35 39 26 18 28 14 16 41 50 5 28 15 26 37 7 1 28 10 58 44 9 49 28 14 23 40 31 11 29 43 11 1 9 8 85 205 -35 39 18 18 29 42 18 41 44 8 29 43 29 36 57 3 29 38 57 44 5 52 29 42 25 40 24 18 31 11 23 1 9 33 83 199 -35 39 10 19 31 10 30 41 38 20 31 11 41 36 46 56 31 7 6 44 2 13 31 10 36 40 17 29 32 39 49 1 9 58 82 196 -35 39 2 18 32 38 55 41 32 43 32 40 7 36 36 37 32 35 28 43 58 55 32 39 0 40 10 44 34 8 31 1 10 23 81 193 -35 38 54 17 34 7 36 41 27 16 34 8 50 36 26 7 34 4 6 43 55 58 34 7 41 40 4 5 35 37 34 1 10 48 79 191 -36 38 46 15 35 36 39 41 22 0 35 37 53 36 15 24 35 33 4 43 53 24 35 36 42 39 57 31 37 7 2 1 11 13 78 190 -36 38 38 11 37 6 5 41 16 56 37 7 20 36 4 26 37 2 27 43 51 16 37 6 6 39 51 3 38 36 58 1 11 39 76 189 -36 38 30 6 38 36 0 41 12 6 38 37 16 35 53 13 38 32 17 43 49 35 38 35 59 39 44 42 40 7 26 1 12 4 75 188 -36 38 21 58 40 6 28 41 7 30 40 7 44 35 41 41 40 2 40 43 48 24 40 6 24 39 38 27 41 38 32 1 12 29 73 187 -36 38 13 48 41 37 33 41 3 10 41 38 50 35 29 50 41 33 39 43 47 48 41 37 25 39 32 19 43 10 19 1 12 54 72 187 -35 38 5 36 43 9 19 40 59 7 43 10 37 35 17 36 43 5 20 43 47 49 43 9 7 39 26 19 44 42 54 1 13 19 70 186 -35 37 57 20 44 41 52 40 55 25 44 43 10 35 4 57 44 37 47 43 48 31 44 41 36 39 20 29 46 16 20 1 13 44 69 186 -35 37 49 0 46 15 18 40 52 4 46 16 36 34 51 50 46 11 5 43 50 1 46 14 55 39 14 49 47 50 44 1 14 9 67 185 -35 37 40 36 47 49 41 40 49 8 47 51 0 34 38 9 47 45 21 43 52 24 47 49 12 39 9 20 49 26 13 1 14 34 66 185 -35 37 32 7 49 25 8 40 46 40 49 26 27 34 23 52 49 20 40 43 55 48 49 24 32 39 4 5 51 2 52 1 14 59 64 185 -35 37 23 32 51 1 46 40 44 46 51 3 6 34 8 51 50 57 9 44 0 23 51 1 1 38 59 5 52 40 51 1 15 24 62 185 -34 37 14 50 52 39 43 40 43 29 52 41 3 33 53 0 52 34 56 44 6 19 52 38 47 38 54 23 54 20 16 1 15 49 61 184 -34 37 5 59 54 19 7 40 42 56 54 20 26 33 36 10 54 14 8 44 13 51 54 17 59 38 50 3 56 1 18 1 16 15 59 184 -34 36 56 58 56 0 8 40 43 17 56 1 26 33 18 10 55 54 56 44 23 17 55 58 44 38 46 8 57 44 6 1 16 40 57 184 -33 36 47 46 57 42 54 40 44 40 57 44 11 32 58 46 57 37 28 44 34 58 57 41 13 38 42 44 59 28 53 1 17 5 56 184 -33 36 38 19 59 27 39 40 47 20 59 28 55 32 37 40 59 21 56 44 49 24 59 25 37 38 39 58 61 15 51 1 17 30 54 184 -32 36 28 33 61 14 36 40 51 35 61 15 50 32 14 29 61 8 34 45 7 13 61 12 7 38 38 0 63 5 17 1 17 55 52 184 -32 36 18 26 63 4 1 40 57 48 63 5 11 31 48 42 62 57 36 45 29 16 63 1 0 38 37 3 64 57 29 1 18 20 50 184 -31 36 7 50 64 56 10 41 6 32 64 57 16 31 19 35 64 49 19 45 56 43 64 52 29 38 37 27 66 52 46 1 18 45 48 184 -31 35 56 37 66 51 26 41 18 35 66 52 25 30 46 7 66 44 4 46 31 14 66 46 54 38 39 40 68 51 35 1 19 10 46 184 -30 35 44 34 68 50 13 41 35 6 68 51 4 30 6 51 68 42 12 47 15 14 68 44 36 38 44 26 70 54 26 1 19 35 44 184 -29 35 31 22 70 53 2 41 57 50 70 53 40 29 19 29 70 44 13 48 12 24 70 45 58 38 52 53 73 1 55 1 20 0 42 184 -28 35 16 31 73 0 30 42 29 38 73 0 49 28 20 26 72 50 38 49 28 36 72 51 26 39 7 5 75 14 49 1 20 25 40 184 -27 34 59 8 75 13 24 43 15 24 75 13 13 27 3 32 75 2 7 51 13 47 75 1 29 39 30 51 77 34 6 1 20 51 37 185 -27 34 37 33 77 32 42 44 24 22 77 31 45 25 17 19 77 19 24 53 46 18 77 16 30 40 12 29 80 1 2 1 21 16 35 186 -25 34 8 13 79 59 43 46 16 18 79 57 25 22 37 45 79 43 19 57 43 34 79 36 31 41 33 44 82 37 17 1 21 41 32 187 -24 33 21 48 82 36 13 49 41 55 82 31 13 18 5 13 82 14 22 64 33 27 82 0 9 44 55 44 85 24 53 1 22 6 30 190 -23 31 43 32 85 24 38 57 39 33 85 12 52 8 25 47 84 50 47 78 20 51 84 20 8 62 34 23 88 22 50 1 22 31 26 208 -21 23 38 25 88 27 55 88 37 30 87 45 44 - 21 53 55 87 12 10 110 22 59 86 1 34 -164 40 10 87 51 15 1 22 56 23 341 -20 -135 22 21 88 1 38 175 20 45 87 13 7 - 94 5 1 86 56 43 158 17 24 85 25 49 -151 42 21 83 54 10 1 23 21 19 354 -17 -141 43 6 84 1 21 -160 54 36 83 33 17 -123 8 58 83 35 13 -174 53 43 82 20 28 -148 43 24 78 48 45 1 23 46 14 357 -15 -143 16 28 78 56 51 -153 56 32 78 30 10 -132 47 45 78 42 35 -162 50 9 77 25 36 -147 18 14 70 6 24 1 24 11 5 358 -10 -144 11 28 70 25 29 -150 15 37 69 29 12 -138 7 22 70 18 15 -154 56 35 66 45 27 Uncertainty in time = +/- 35 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: 2UCAC 40683044 * constellation : Cancer * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 08 10 36.6098 DE: +25 10 39.709 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .144, .144 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.0 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (451) Patientia approx. diameter [km]: 235 approx. diameter ["]: .149 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.16900 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1685 number of rejected observations: 116 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jan 01 - 2012 Nov 08 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.013, 0.007, 89° remarks: * orbital elements for (451) Patientia : Mean anomaly = 31.95285379 deg Arg. of pericenter = 337.51502978 deg Long. of node = 89.25515227 deg Inclination = 15.23987602 deg Eccentricity = 0.07687272 Semimajor axis = 3.06155533 AU Perihelion dist = 2.82620523 AU Mag: H = 6.73, G = 0.19 Epoch of elements : MJD 56259.04600000 TDT (2012 Nov 28.046) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 28 451 Patientia 1h 7.9m UT 12.0 8 10 36.610 25 10 39.712UCAC 40683044 0.0 11.4 235 36.3 2.169 -0.030 14.80 38.3377 25.174 160.02 -21.34 1.1313 0.03682 0.00097 -0.09575 3.64926 -0.00469 0.00072 2000 30.28849320121119.00000337.515030 89.255152 15.2398760.07687272 3.0615553 2.8262052 6.7 5.00.19 RATE 1.8398860 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.144 0.144 90 1.97 0.145 0 0-2-1 056247.0020121128_683044 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 09:01 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org