IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (19) Fortuna / TYC 6334-00298-1 event on 2012 Nov 24, 21:00 UT Visible from W Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 24 UT, the 230 km diameter asteroid (19) Fortuna will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across W Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 12.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 24, 21:02 - 2012 Nov 24, 21:04 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456256.37567083 * magnitude of target star: 10.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.0 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 7.3 * Moon: 88 % sunlit, 75° distance * Sun: 64° distance * rough path description: W Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 244 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.21 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .031 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .031", .026", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 31.6096 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6334-00298-1 by 19 Fortuna on 2012 Nov 24 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 51 0 0 8 32 35 21 2 24 57 218 -1 7 22 41 9 43 1 6 53 28 10 12 46 - 50 0 0 8 54 1 21 2 28 56 219 -2 7 44 1 10 4 32 7 14 46 10 34 19 - 49 0 0 9 15 40 21 2 31 55 220 -3 8 5 35 10 26 17 7 36 18 10 56 7 - 48 0 0 9 37 33 21 2 34 55 221 -4 8 27 22 10 48 16 7 58 3 11 18 8 - 47 0 0 9 59 39 21 2 37 54 221 -5 8 49 23 11 10 27 8 20 1 11 40 21 - 46 0 0 10 21 57 21 2 41 53 222 -6 9 11 36 11 32 51 8 42 13 12 2 47 - 45 0 0 10 44 28 21 2 44 52 223 -7 9 34 2 11 55 26 9 4 36 12 25 25 - 44 0 0 11 7 10 21 2 47 51 224 -8 9 56 39 12 18 13 9 27 11 12 48 14 - 43 0 0 11 30 2 21 2 50 50 225 -10 10 19 27 12 41 10 9 49 57 13 11 13 - 42 0 0 11 53 5 21 2 53 49 225 -11 10 42 25 13 4 18 10 12 53 13 34 23 - 41 0 0 12 16 18 21 2 56 48 226 -12 11 5 33 13 27 35 10 35 59 13 57 42 - 40 0 0 12 39 39 21 2 59 47 227 -13 11 28 50 13 51 1 10 59 15 14 21 10 - 39 0 0 13 3 9 21 3 2 46 227 -14 11 52 16 14 14 35 11 22 39 14 44 46 - 38 0 0 13 26 47 21 3 4 45 228 -15 12 15 50 14 38 17 11 46 12 15 8 29 - 37 0 0 13 50 33 21 3 7 44 228 -16 12 39 32 15 2 6 12 9 52 15 32 20 - 36 0 0 14 14 25 21 3 10 43 229 -17 13 3 20 15 26 2 12 33 39 15 56 17 - 35 0 0 14 38 23 21 3 13 42 230 -18 13 27 15 15 50 3 12 57 32 16 20 20 - 34 0 0 15 2 26 21 3 15 41 230 -19 13 51 15 16 14 10 13 21 31 16 44 28 - 33 0 0 15 26 34 21 3 18 40 231 -20 14 15 21 16 38 21 13 45 35 17 8 40 - 32 0 0 15 50 47 21 3 20 39 231 -21 14 39 30 17 2 36 14 9 43 17 32 57 - 31 0 0 16 15 3 21 3 23 38 232 -22 15 3 44 17 26 55 14 33 56 17 57 16 - 30 0 0 16 39 21 21 3 25 37 232 -23 15 28 0 17 51 16 14 58 12 18 21 39 - 29 0 0 17 3 43 21 3 27 36 233 -24 15 52 19 18 15 39 15 22 30 18 46 3 - 28 0 0 17 28 5 21 3 30 35 233 -25 16 16 40 18 40 4 15 46 50 19 10 28 - 27 0 0 17 52 29 21 3 32 34 234 -26 16 41 2 19 4 29 16 11 11 19 34 54 - 26 0 0 18 16 53 21 3 34 33 234 -27 17 5 25 19 28 55 16 35 34 19 59 20 - 25 0 0 18 41 17 21 3 36 32 235 -28 17 29 48 19 53 20 16 59 56 20 23 46 - 24 0 0 19 5 40 21 3 38 31 235 -29 17 54 10 20 17 44 17 24 18 20 48 10 - 23 0 0 19 30 2 21 3 40 30 235 -30 18 18 31 20 42 6 17 48 38 21 12 33 - 22 0 0 19 54 21 21 3 42 29 236 -31 18 42 50 21 6 26 18 12 57 21 36 53 - 21 0 0 20 18 38 21 3 44 28 236 -32 19 7 7 21 30 43 18 37 14 22 1 10 - 20 0 0 20 42 51 21 3 45 27 237 -33 19 31 20 21 54 56 19 1 27 22 25 23 - 19 0 0 21 7 1 21 3 47 26 237 -34 19 55 30 22 19 5 19 25 37 22 49 32 - 18 0 0 21 31 6 21 3 49 25 238 -35 20 19 35 22 43 9 19 49 43 23 13 36 - 17 0 0 21 55 6 21 3 50 24 238 -36 20 43 36 23 7 8 20 13 44 23 37 35 - 16 0 0 22 19 0 21 3 52 23 239 -37 21 7 31 23 31 2 20 37 40 24 1 27 - 15 0 0 22 42 48 21 3 53 22 239 -38 21 31 21 23 54 48 21 1 29 24 25 13 - 14 0 0 23 6 29 21 3 54 21 239 -39 21 55 3 24 18 28 21 25 13 24 48 52 - 13 0 0 23 30 3 21 3 56 20 240 -40 22 18 39 24 42 0 21 48 49 25 12 24 - 12 0 0 23 53 29 21 3 57 19 240 -41 22 42 7 25 5 24 22 12 18 25 35 47 - 11 0 0 24 16 46 21 3 58 18 241 -42 23 5 27 25 28 39 22 35 38 25 59 1 - 10 0 0 24 39 55 21 3 59 17 241 -43 23 28 38 25 51 46 22 58 51 26 22 7 - 9 0 0 25 2 55 21 4 0 16 242 -44 23 51 40 26 14 42 23 21 54 26 45 2 - 8 0 0 25 25 44 21 4 1 15 242 -45 24 14 32 26 37 29 23 44 47 27 7 48 - 7 0 0 25 48 23 21 4 2 14 243 -46 24 37 14 27 0 5 24 7 31 27 30 22 - 6 0 0 26 10 52 21 4 3 13 243 -47 24 59 46 27 22 30 24 30 4 27 52 46 - 5 0 0 26 33 9 21 4 4 12 244 -48 25 22 7 27 44 44 24 52 26 28 14 58 - 4 0 0 26 55 14 21 4 4 11 244 -49 25 44 16 28 6 46 25 14 36 28 36 59 - 3 0 0 27 17 8 21 4 5 10 244 -50 26 6 13 28 28 35 25 36 35 28 58 46 - 2 0 0 27 38 49 21 4 6 9 245 -51 26 27 58 28 50 12 25 58 22 29 20 22 - 1 0 0 28 0 17 21 4 6 8 245 -51 26 49 30 29 11 36 26 19 55 29 41 44 0 0 0 28 21 32 21 4 7 7 246 -52 27 10 49 29 32 47 26 41 16 30 2 52 1 0 0 28 42 33 21 4 7 6 246 -53 27 31 55 29 53 43 27 2 24 30 23 47 2 0 0 29 3 20 21 4 7 5 247 -54 27 52 47 30 14 26 27 23 18 30 44 28 3 0 0 29 23 53 21 4 8 4 247 -55 28 13 24 30 34 54 27 43 57 31 4 54 4 0 0 29 44 12 21 4 8 3 248 -56 28 33 48 30 55 7 28 4 23 31 25 5 5 0 0 30 4 15 21 4 8 2 248 -57 28 53 56 31 15 6 28 24 33 31 45 1 6 0 0 30 24 3 21 4 8 1 249 -57 29 13 50 31 34 49 28 44 29 32 4 42 7 0 0 30 43 36 21 4 8 1 249 -58 29 33 28 31 54 16 29 4 9 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6334-00298-1 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 33 36.3980 DE: -17 29 10.527 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .031, .026 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.2 * B mag [mag]: 11.3 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (19) Fortuna approx. diameter [km]: 230 approx. diameter ["]: .128 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.48300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1894 number of rejected observations: 263 time covered by the observations: 1900 Feb 12 - 2012 Oct 19 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.006, 0.005, 76° remarks: * orbital elements for (19) Fortuna : Mean anomaly = 311.48996786 deg Arg. of pericenter = 182.38134587 deg Long. of node = 211.23465781 deg Inclination = 1.57340414 deg Eccentricity = 0.15782750 Semimajor axis = 2.44188434 AU Perihelion dist = 2.05648785 AU Mag: H = 7.17, G = 0.10 Epoch of elements : MJD 56255.87600000 TDT (2012 Nov 24.876) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 24 19 Fortuna 21h 1.0m UT 10.2 20 33 36.398-17 29 10.53TYC 6334-00298-1 11.3 12.0 230 7.3 2.483 4.302 14.29 -71.0584 -17.490 -138.50 -20.76 21.0161 -0.07476 0.32217 17.37953 4.03297 0.00485 0.00129 2000 309.97222520121119.00000182.381346211.234658 1.5734040.15782750 2.4418843 2.0564878 7.1 5.00.10 RATE 2.5829530 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.031 0.026 89 1.21 0.027 0 0 0 3 056247.0020121124_0298-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 22:04 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org