IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (58) Concordia / 2UCAC 25898599 event on 2012 Nov 21, 23:33 UT Visible from E USA Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 21 UT, the 105 km diameter asteroid (58) Concordia will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across E USA. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.3 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 86 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 21, 23:34 - 2012 Nov 21, 23:37 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456253.4819875 * magnitude of target star: 12.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.3 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.1 * Moon: 64 % sunlit, 34° distance * Sun: 73° distance * rough path description: E USA The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 145 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.59 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .028 +/- .030) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .030", .028", 359° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 25.9139 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of 2UCAC 25898599 by 58 Concordia on 2012 Nov 21 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 98 0 0 29 12 53 23 34 47 45 183 -1 28 31 51 29 54 25 27 44 2 30 44 5 - 97 0 0 29 30 19 23 34 51 44 184 -2 28 49 11 30 11 56 28 1 16 31 1 43 - 96 0 0 29 48 5 23 34 55 44 185 -3 29 6 52 30 29 47 28 18 50 31 19 41 - 95 0 0 30 6 11 23 34 59 44 187 -4 29 24 53 30 47 59 28 36 45 31 38 0 - 94 0 0 30 24 37 23 35 3 43 188 -4 29 43 13 31 6 31 28 55 0 31 56 39 - 93 0 0 30 43 23 23 35 7 43 189 -5 30 1 54 31 25 22 29 13 34 32 15 37 - 92 0 0 31 2 27 23 35 10 42 190 -6 30 20 53 31 44 32 29 32 26 32 34 54 - 91 0 0 31 21 50 23 35 14 42 192 -7 30 40 10 32 4 1 29 51 37 32 54 29 - 90 0 0 31 41 31 23 35 18 41 193 -8 30 59 45 32 23 47 30 11 6 33 14 23 - 89 0 0 32 1 28 23 35 21 41 194 -9 31 19 37 32 43 51 30 30 52 33 34 34 - 88 0 0 32 21 43 23 35 25 40 195 -10 31 39 46 33 4 11 30 50 55 33 55 1 - 87 0 0 32 42 14 23 35 28 40 196 -11 32 0 12 33 24 48 31 11 14 34 15 45 - 86 0 0 33 3 0 23 35 32 39 198 -12 32 20 53 33 45 40 31 31 49 34 36 44 - 85 0 0 33 24 2 23 35 35 38 199 -13 32 41 48 34 6 47 31 52 39 34 57 58 - 84 0 0 33 45 17 23 35 38 38 200 -14 33 2 59 34 28 8 32 13 43 35 19 26 - 83 0 0 34 6 47 23 35 42 37 201 -15 33 24 23 34 49 43 32 35 0 35 41 8 - 82 0 0 34 28 29 23 35 45 37 202 -15 33 46 0 35 11 31 32 56 31 36 3 3 - 81 0 0 34 50 24 23 35 48 36 203 -16 34 7 49 35 33 32 33 18 15 36 25 10 - 80 0 0 35 12 31 23 35 51 35 204 -17 34 29 51 35 55 44 33 40 10 36 47 29 - 79 0 0 35 34 48 23 35 54 35 205 -18 34 52 3 36 18 7 34 2 17 37 9 59 - 78 0 0 35 57 17 23 35 57 34 206 -19 35 14 27 36 40 41 34 24 35 37 32 39 - 77 0 0 36 19 55 23 36 0 33 207 -20 35 37 0 37 3 24 34 47 2 37 55 29 - 76 0 0 36 42 42 23 36 3 32 208 -21 35 59 42 37 26 16 35 9 39 38 18 27 - 75 0 0 37 5 37 23 36 6 32 209 -22 36 22 32 37 49 17 35 32 24 38 41 34 - 74 0 0 37 28 41 23 36 9 31 210 -23 36 45 31 38 12 25 35 55 17 39 4 48 - 73 0 0 37 51 51 23 36 11 30 211 -23 37 8 37 38 35 40 36 18 17 39 28 9 - 72 0 0 38 15 7 23 36 14 30 212 -24 37 31 49 38 59 1 36 41 24 39 51 36 - 71 0 0 38 38 29 23 36 16 29 212 -25 37 55 6 39 22 27 37 4 37 40 15 8 - 70 0 0 39 1 56 23 36 19 28 213 -26 38 18 29 39 45 59 37 27 55 40 38 45 - 69 0 0 39 25 27 23 36 21 27 214 -27 38 41 56 40 9 34 37 51 17 41 2 25 - 68 0 0 39 49 1 23 36 24 26 215 -27 39 5 26 40 33 12 38 14 43 41 26 8 - 67 0 0 40 12 38 23 36 26 26 216 -28 39 28 59 40 56 53 38 38 12 41 49 54 - 66 0 0 40 36 17 23 36 28 25 217 -29 39 52 35 41 20 36 39 1 44 42 13 42 - 65 0 0 40 59 58 23 36 30 24 218 -30 40 16 12 41 44 20 39 25 17 42 37 30 - 64 0 0 41 23 39 23 36 32 23 218 -31 40 39 49 42 8 4 39 48 51 43 1 18 - 63 0 0 41 47 19 23 36 34 23 219 -31 41 3 27 42 31 48 40 12 25 43 25 6 - 62 0 0 42 10 59 23 36 36 22 220 -32 41 27 4 42 55 30 40 35 59 43 48 52 - 61 0 0 42 34 37 23 36 38 21 221 -33 41 50 40 43 19 11 40 59 32 44 12 37 - 60 0 0 42 58 13 23 36 40 20 222 -34 42 14 13 43 42 50 41 23 2 44 36 18 - 59 0 0 43 21 46 23 36 41 19 222 -34 42 37 44 44 6 25 41 46 31 44 59 57 - 58 0 0 43 45 16 23 36 43 19 223 -35 43 1 11 44 29 57 42 9 56 45 23 31 - 57 0 0 44 8 41 23 36 45 18 224 -36 43 24 35 44 53 24 42 33 17 45 47 0 - 56 0 0 44 32 1 23 36 46 17 225 -36 43 47 54 45 16 46 42 56 34 46 10 24 - 55 0 0 44 55 16 23 36 47 16 226 -37 44 11 7 45 40 2 43 19 46 46 33 42 - 54 0 0 45 18 25 23 36 49 16 226 -38 44 34 15 46 3 12 43 42 53 46 56 54 - 53 0 0 45 41 27 23 36 50 15 227 -38 44 57 16 46 26 15 44 5 53 47 19 58 - 52 0 0 46 4 22 23 36 51 14 228 -39 45 20 10 46 49 11 44 28 46 47 42 54 - 51 0 0 46 27 8 23 36 52 13 229 -39 45 42 56 47 11 58 44 51 32 48 5 42 - 50 0 0 46 49 47 23 36 53 12 229 -40 46 5 34 47 34 36 45 14 10 48 28 21 - 49 0 0 47 12 16 23 36 54 12 230 -41 46 28 3 47 57 6 45 36 39 48 50 50 - 48 0 0 47 34 36 23 36 55 11 231 -41 46 50 23 48 19 25 45 58 59 49 13 9 - 47 0 0 47 56 45 23 36 56 10 232 -42 47 12 34 48 41 34 46 21 10 49 35 18 - 46 0 0 48 18 44 23 36 57 9 232 -42 47 34 33 49 3 33 46 43 10 49 57 15 - 45 0 0 48 40 32 23 36 57 9 233 -43 47 56 22 49 25 20 47 5 0 50 19 1 - 44 0 0 49 2 9 23 36 58 8 234 -43 48 18 0 49 46 55 47 26 39 50 40 35 - 43 0 0 49 23 34 23 36 59 7 235 -44 48 39 26 50 8 18 47 48 7 51 1 57 - 42 0 0 49 44 46 23 36 59 6 235 -44 49 0 40 50 29 29 48 9 23 51 23 5 - 41 0 0 50 5 45 23 37 0 6 236 -45 49 21 41 50 50 27 48 30 26 51 44 1 - 40 0 0 50 26 32 23 37 0 5 237 -45 49 42 30 51 11 11 48 51 17 52 4 42 - 39 0 0 50 47 5 23 37 0 4 238 -45 50 3 5 51 31 42 49 11 55 52 25 10 - 38 0 0 51 7 24 23 37 1 4 239 -46 50 23 27 51 51 58 49 32 19 52 45 24 - 37 0 0 51 27 29 23 37 1 3 239 -46 50 43 34 52 12 0 49 52 30 53 5 23 - 36 0 0 51 47 19 23 37 1 2 240 -47 51 3 28 52 31 48 .. .. .. 53 25 6 - 35 0 0 52 6 55 23 37 1 1 241 -47 51 23 6 52 51 21 .. .. .. 53 44 35 - 34 0 0 52 26 16 23 37 1 1 242 -47 51 42 30 53 10 38 .. .. .. 54 3 49 - 33 0 0 52 45 22 23 37 1 0 243 -48 52 1 39 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Nov 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: 2UCAC 25898599 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 59 54.0267 DE: -16 17 18.463 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .025, .028 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.2 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (58) Concordia approx. diameter [km]: 105 approx. diameter ["]: .050 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.91500 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Nov 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1165 number of rejected observations: 136 time covered by the observations: 1900 Mar 28 - 2012 Nov 06 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.012, 0.008, 79° remarks: * orbital elements for (58) Concordia : Mean anomaly = 136.34156945 deg Arg. of pericenter = 31.55948918 deg Long. of node = 161.17545978 deg Inclination = 5.06082644 deg Eccentricity = 0.04471051 Semimajor axis = 2.69914358 AU Perihelion dist = 2.57846348 AU Mag: H = 8.91, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56252.98200000 TDT (2012 Nov 21.982) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 21 58 Concordia 23h 34.1m UT 12.2 20 59 54.027-16 17 18.462UCAC 25898599 0.0 14.4 105 4.1 2.915 2.994 9.41 -99.9073 -16.291 -176.98 -20.16 23.5677 -0.14457 0.67206 14.29048 3.11729 0.00539 0.00160 2000 135.67878420121119.00000 31.559489161.175460 5.0608260.04471051 2.6991436 2.5784635 8.9 5.00.15 RATE 2.2226190 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.030 0.028 359 1.59 0.029 0 0-3-3 056247.0020121121_898599 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Nov 16, 08:33 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org