IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1791) Patsayev / TYC 6302-00910-1 event on 2012 Nov 15, 19:46 UT Visible from W Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Nov 15 UT, the 30 km diameter asteroid (1791) Patsayev will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across W Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.6 mag to 17.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 0.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 32 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Nov 15, 19:47 - 2012 Nov 15, 19:49 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456247.32384583 * magnitude of target star: 10.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 6.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 0.8 * Moon: 6 % sunlit, 31° distance * Sun: 59° distance * rough path description: W Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 33 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 2.06 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.0 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .036 +/- .031) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .036", .031", 87° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 35.5960 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6302-00910-1 by 1791 Patsayev on 2012 Nov 15 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 34 0 0 9 46 54 19 47 41 54 222 0 9 37 50 9 55 58 9 0 35 10 33 28 - 33 0 0 10 1 25 19 47 44 53 223 -1 9 52 20 10 10 30 9 15 3 10 48 2 - 32 0 0 10 16 12 19 47 46 52 224 -2 10 7 7 10 25 17 9 29 47 11 2 52 - 31 0 0 10 31 15 19 47 49 51 225 -3 10 22 9 10 40 21 9 44 47 11 17 58 - 30 0 0 10 46 33 19 47 52 50 226 -4 10 37 27 10 55 40 10 0 3 11 33 19 - 29 0 0 11 2 6 19 47 54 49 226 -5 10 53 0 11 11 14 10 15 33 11 48 56 - 28 0 0 11 17 55 19 47 57 48 227 -6 11 8 47 11 27 3 10 31 19 12 4 47 - 27 0 0 11 33 58 19 48 0 47 228 -7 11 24 50 11 43 6 10 47 19 12 20 53 - 26 0 0 11 50 15 19 48 2 46 229 -8 11 41 6 11 59 24 11 3 33 12 37 13 - 25 0 0 12 6 46 19 48 5 45 229 -9 11 57 36 12 15 55 11 20 1 12 53 47 - 24 0 0 12 23 30 19 48 7 45 230 -10 12 14 20 12 32 40 11 36 42 13 10 34 - 23 0 0 12 40 27 19 48 10 44 231 -11 12 31 17 12 49 38 11 53 37 13 27 34 - 22 0 0 12 57 37 19 48 12 43 231 -12 12 48 27 13 6 49 12 10 44 13 44 47 - 21 0 0 13 15 0 19 48 14 42 232 -13 13 5 48 13 24 12 12 28 4 14 2 12 - 20 0 0 13 32 34 19 48 16 41 232 -14 13 23 22 13 41 47 12 45 35 14 19 49 - 19 0 0 13 50 20 19 48 19 40 233 -15 13 41 8 13 59 33 13 3 19 14 37 38 - 18 0 0 14 8 17 19 48 21 39 233 -16 13 59 4 14 17 30 13 21 13 14 55 38 - 17 0 0 14 26 25 19 48 23 38 234 -17 14 17 11 14 35 39 13 39 18 15 13 48 - 16 0 0 14 44 42 19 48 25 37 234 -18 14 35 29 14 53 57 13 57 33 15 32 8 - 15 0 0 15 3 10 19 48 27 36 235 -20 14 53 56 15 12 25 14 15 59 15 50 39 - 14 0 0 15 21 47 19 48 29 35 235 -21 15 12 33 15 31 3 14 34 33 16 9 18 - 13 0 0 15 40 33 19 48 31 34 236 -22 15 31 18 15 49 49 14 53 17 16 28 7 - 12 0 0 15 59 28 19 48 33 33 236 -23 15 50 12 16 8 45 15 12 9 16 47 4 - 11 0 0 16 18 31 19 48 35 32 237 -24 16 9 15 16 27 48 15 31 10 17 6 9 - 10 0 0 16 37 41 19 48 37 31 237 -25 16 28 25 16 46 58 15 50 18 17 25 21 - 9 0 0 16 56 59 19 48 39 30 238 -26 16 47 42 17 6 16 16 9 34 17 44 41 - 8 0 0 17 16 23 19 48 40 29 238 -27 17 7 6 17 25 41 16 28 56 18 4 7 - 7 0 0 17 35 53 19 48 42 28 238 -28 17 26 36 17 45 12 16 48 24 18 23 40 - 6 0 0 17 55 30 19 48 43 27 239 -29 17 46 11 18 4 48 17 7 59 18 43 18 - 5 0 0 18 15 11 19 48 45 26 239 -30 18 5 53 18 24 30 17 27 39 19 3 1 - 4 0 0 18 34 57 19 48 46 25 240 -31 18 25 39 18 44 17 17 47 23 19 22 49 - 3 0 0 18 54 48 19 48 48 24 240 -32 18 45 29 19 4 8 18 7 12 19 42 41 - 2 0 0 19 14 43 19 48 49 23 241 -33 19 5 23 19 24 3 18 27 5 20 2 37 - 1 0 0 19 34 40 19 48 51 22 241 -34 19 25 21 19 44 1 18 47 2 20 22 36 0 0 0 19 54 41 19 48 52 21 241 -35 19 45 21 20 4 2 19 7 1 20 42 38 1 0 0 20 14 44 19 48 53 20 242 -36 20 5 24 20 24 5 19 27 3 21 2 43 2 0 0 20 34 49 19 48 54 19 242 -37 20 25 29 20 44 10 19 47 7 21 22 49 3 0 0 20 54 56 19 48 55 18 243 -38 20 45 36 21 4 17 20 7 13 21 42 56 4 0 0 21 15 4 19 48 56 17 243 -39 21 5 43 21 24 25 20 27 20 22 3 5 5 0 0 21 35 12 19 48 57 16 243 -39 21 25 51 21 44 33 20 47 27 22 23 14 6 0 0 21 55 20 19 48 58 15 244 -40 21 45 59 22 4 41 21 7 35 22 43 22 7 0 0 22 15 27 19 48 59 14 244 -41 22 6 6 22 24 49 21 27 42 23 3 30 8 0 0 22 35 34 19 49 0 13 245 -42 22 26 13 22 44 56 21 47 48 23 23 38 9 0 0 22 55 39 19 49 0 12 245 -43 22 46 18 23 5 1 22 7 53 23 43 43 10 0 0 23 15 43 19 49 1 11 245 -44 23 6 22 23 25 5 22 27 57 24 3 47 11 0 0 23 35 44 19 49 2 10 246 -45 23 26 23 23 45 6 22 47 58 24 23 48 12 0 0 23 55 43 19 49 2 9 246 -46 23 46 21 24 5 5 23 7 56 24 43 47 13 0 0 24 15 38 19 49 3 8 247 -47 24 6 17 24 25 0 23 27 52 25 3 42 14 0 0 24 35 30 19 49 3 7 247 -48 24 26 8 24 44 51 23 47 44 25 23 33 15 0 0 24 55 17 19 49 4 6 247 -49 24 45 56 25 4 39 24 7 32 25 43 20 16 0 0 25 15 0 19 49 4 5 248 -50 25 5 39 25 24 22 24 27 15 26 3 3 17 0 0 25 34 38 19 49 4 5 248 -51 25 25 17 25 44 0 24 46 54 26 22 40 18 0 0 25 54 11 19 49 5 4 249 -52 25 44 50 26 3 32 25 6 27 26 42 12 19 0 0 26 13 38 19 49 5 3 249 -52 26 4 18 26 22 59 .. .. .. 27 1 39 20 0 0 26 32 59 19 49 5 2 250 -53 26 23 39 26 42 20 .. .. .. 27 20 58 21 0 0 26 52 13 19 49 5 1 250 -54 26 42 53 27 1 34 .. .. .. 27 40 12 Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 26.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6302-00910-1 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 19 33 09.2174 DE: -17 23 13.178 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .029, .027 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.4 * B mag [mag]: 11.4 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1791) Patsayev approx. diameter [km]: 30 approx. diameter ["]: .015 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.78300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 25 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1306 number of rejected observations: 42 time covered by the observations: 1931 Oct 14 - 2012 Jul 18 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.022, 0.015, 83° remarks: * orbital elements for (1791) Patsayev : Mean anomaly = 29.93882588 deg Arg. of pericenter = 73.92325492 deg Long. of node = 199.07100025 deg Inclination = 5.36131159 deg Eccentricity = 0.14383732 Semimajor axis = 2.74609594 AU Perihelion dist = 2.35110485 AU Mag: H = 11.74, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56246.82400000 TDT (2012 Nov 15.824) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Nov 15 1791 Patsayev 19h 46.3m UT 10.4 19 33 9.217-17 23 13.18TYC 6302-00910-1 11.4 17.0 30 0.8 2.783 4.413 6.30 -58.5930 -17.388 -120.40 -18.74 19.7723 -0.03489 0.38354 19.99242 1.99140 0.00482 0.00100 2000 28.460843201211 9.00000 73.923255199.071000 5.3613120.14383732 2.7460959 2.351104911.8 5.00.15 RATE 2.1658600 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.036 0.031 87 3.06 0.031 0 0 4 2 056226.0020121115_0910-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 25, 22:26 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org