IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1021) Flammario / HIP 95604 event on 2012 Oct 29, 16:49 UT Visible from Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 29 UT, the 97 km diameter asteroid (1021) Flammario will occult a 7.8 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.4 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 98 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 29, 16:50 - 2012 Oct 29, 16:54 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456230.201125 * magnitude of target star: 7.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 6.4 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.1 * Moon: 100 % sunlit, 105° distance * Sun: 73° distance * rough path description: Africa Additional comments ------------------- 12" double star The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 97 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.37 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.9 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .027 +/- .019) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .027", .019", 93° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 24.0484 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 95604 by 1021 Flammario on 2012 Oct 29 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 19 0 0 -21 11 41 16 50 54 72 249 0 -21 38 20 -20 45 1 -21 58 3 -20 25 17 20 0 0 -21 2 41 16 50 58 71 249 -1 -21 29 22 -20 35 59 -21 49 6 -20 16 13 21 0 0 -20 53 14 16 51 2 71 250 -2 -21 19 57 -20 26 30 -21 39 42 -20 6 43 22 0 0 -20 43 20 16 51 7 70 250 -3 -21 10 5 -20 16 34 -21 29 52 -19 56 45 23 0 0 -20 33 0 16 51 11 69 250 -4 -20 59 47 -20 6 12 -21 19 36 -19 46 21 24 0 0 -20 22 12 16 51 15 68 250 -5 -20 49 2 -19 55 22 -21 8 52 -19 35 29 25 0 0 -20 10 58 16 51 19 67 250 -6 -20 37 50 -19 44 5 -20 57 42 -19 24 11 26 0 0 -19 59 17 16 51 23 66 250 -7 -20 26 11 -19 32 22 -20 46 5 -19 12 26 27 0 0 -19 47 9 16 51 27 65 250 -8 -20 14 6 -19 20 11 -20 34 2 -19 0 14 28 0 0 -19 34 35 16 51 32 64 250 -9 -20 1 34 -19 7 35 -20 21 32 -18 47 35 29 0 0 -19 21 34 16 51 36 63 250 -10 -19 48 36 -18 54 31 -20 8 36 -18 34 29 30 0 0 -19 8 6 16 51 40 62 250 -11 -19 35 11 -18 41 0 -19 55 13 -18 20 57 31 0 0 -18 54 12 16 51 44 61 249 -12 -19 21 20 -18 27 4 -19 41 24 -18 6 58 32 0 0 -18 39 51 16 51 48 60 249 -13 -19 7 2 -18 12 40 -19 27 8 -17 52 32 33 0 0 -18 25 5 16 51 52 59 249 -14 -18 52 18 -17 57 50 -19 12 26 -17 37 40 34 0 0 -18 9 51 16 51 56 58 249 -15 -18 37 8 -17 42 34 -18 57 18 -17 22 22 35 0 0 -17 54 12 16 52 0 57 249 -16 -18 21 31 -17 26 52 -18 41 44 -17 6 37 36 0 0 -17 38 6 16 52 3 56 249 -17 -18 5 29 -17 10 43 -18 25 44 -16 50 26 37 0 0 -17 21 35 16 52 7 55 249 -18 -17 49 1 -16 54 9 -18 9 18 -16 33 49 38 0 0 -17 4 38 16 52 11 54 248 -19 -17 32 6 -16 37 8 -17 52 26 -16 16 47 39 0 0 -16 47 15 16 52 15 53 248 -20 -17 14 47 -16 19 42 -17 35 8 -15 59 18 40 0 0 -16 29 26 16 52 19 52 248 -21 -16 57 1 -16 1 50 -17 17 25 -15 41 24 41 0 0 -16 11 12 16 52 22 51 248 -22 -16 38 51 -15 43 33 -16 59 17 -15 23 4 42 0 0 -15 52 33 16 52 26 50 248 -23 -16 20 15 -15 24 50 -16 40 44 -15 4 19 43 0 0 -15 33 29 16 52 30 49 248 -24 -16 1 14 -15 5 43 -16 21 45 -14 45 10 44 0 0 -15 14 0 16 52 33 48 247 -25 -15 41 48 -14 46 11 -16 2 22 -14 25 35 45 0 0 -14 54 6 16 52 37 47 247 -26 -15 21 58 -14 26 14 -15 42 34 -14 5 35 46 0 0 -14 33 48 16 52 40 46 247 -27 -15 1 43 -14 5 53 -15 22 22 -13 45 12 47 0 0 -14 13 6 16 52 44 45 247 -28 -14 41 5 -13 45 7 -15 1 46 -13 24 24 48 0 0 -13 52 1 16 52 47 44 247 -29 -14 20 2 -13 23 58 -14 40 46 -13 3 12 49 0 0 -13 30 31 16 52 50 43 246 -30 -13 58 36 -13 2 25 -14 19 22 -12 41 37 50 0 0 -13 8 38 16 52 54 42 246 -31 -13 36 47 -12 40 29 -13 57 36 -12 19 38 51 0 0 -12 46 23 16 52 57 41 246 -32 -13 14 34 -12 18 10 -13 35 26 -11 57 17 52 0 0 -12 23 45 16 53 0 40 246 -33 -12 52 0 -11 55 29 -13 12 53 -11 34 33 53 0 0 -12 0 44 16 53 3 38 246 -34 -12 29 2 -11 32 25 -12 49 59 -11 11 27 54 0 0 -11 37 22 16 53 6 37 246 -36 -12 5 43 -11 9 0 -12 26 42 -10 47 59 55 0 0 -11 13 38 16 53 9 36 245 -37 -11 42 3 -10 45 13 -12 3 4 -10 24 10 56 0 0 -10 49 33 16 53 12 35 245 -38 -11 18 1 -10 21 5 -11 39 5 - 9 59 59 57 0 0 -10 25 8 16 53 15 34 245 -39 -10 53 39 - 9 56 36 -11 14 45 - 9 35 29 58 0 0 -10 0 23 16 53 18 33 245 -40 -10 28 57 - 9 31 47 -10 50 5 - 9 10 38 59 0 0 - 9 35 17 16 53 20 32 245 -41 -10 3 54 - 9 6 39 -10 25 5 - 8 45 27 60 0 0 - 9 9 53 16 53 23 31 245 -42 - 9 38 33 - 8 41 12 - 9 59 45 - 8 19 57 61 0 0 - 8 44 10 16 53 25 30 245 -43 - 9 12 53 - 8 15 26 - 9 34 7 - 7 54 9 62 0 0 - 8 18 9 16 53 28 29 244 -44 - 8 46 54 - 7 49 22 - 9 8 11 - 7 28 3 63 0 0 - 7 51 50 16 53 30 28 244 -45 - 8 20 38 - 7 23 0 - 8 41 57 - 7 1 39 64 0 0 - 7 25 14 16 53 33 27 244 -46 - 7 54 5 - 6 56 21 - 8 15 26 - 6 34 59 65 0 0 - 6 58 22 16 53 35 25 244 -47 - 7 27 16 - 6 29 27 - 7 48 38 - 6 8 2 66 0 0 - 6 31 13 16 53 37 24 244 -48 - 7 0 10 - 6 2 16 - 7 21 35 - 5 40 49 67 0 0 - 6 3 50 16 53 39 23 244 -50 - 6 32 49 - 5 34 50 - 6 54 16 - 5 13 22 68 0 0 - 5 36 12 16 53 41 22 244 -51 - 6 5 14 - 5 7 10 - 6 26 42 - 4 45 40 69 0 0 - 5 8 21 16 53 43 21 244 -52 - 5 37 24 - 4 39 16 - 5 58 54 - 4 17 44 70 0 0 - 4 40 16 16 53 45 20 244 -53 - 5 9 22 - 4 11 9 - 5 30 53 - 3 49 35 71 0 0 - 4 11 58 16 53 46 19 244 -54 - 4 41 6 - 3 42 49 - 5 2 39 - 3 21 14 72 0 0 - 3 43 29 16 53 48 18 244 -55 - 4 12 39 - 3 14 18 - 4 34 14 - 2 52 42 73 0 0 - 3 14 49 16 53 50 17 244 -56 - 3 44 1 - 2 45 36 - 4 5 37 - 2 23 58 74 0 0 - 2 45 58 16 53 51 16 243 -57 - 3 15 12 - 2 16 44 - 3 36 49 - 1 55 5 75 0 0 - 2 16 58 16 53 52 14 243 -58 - 2 46 13 - 1 47 42 - 3 7 52 - 1 26 2 76 0 0 - 1 47 49 16 53 54 13 243 -60 - 2 17 6 - 1 18 32 - 2 38 45 - 0 56 50 77 0 0 - 1 18 32 16 53 55 12 243 -61 - 1 47 50 - 0 49 13 - 2 9 31 - 0 27 31 78 0 0 - 0 49 8 16 53 56 11 243 -62 - 1 18 27 - 0 19 48 - 1 40 9 0 1 56 79 0 0 - 0 19 37 16 53 57 10 243 -63 - 0 48 58 0 9 44 - 1 10 40 0 31 28 80 0 0 0 9 59 16 53 58 9 243 -64 - 0 19 23 0 39 21 - 0 41 6 1 1 6 81 0 0 0 39 40 16 53 58 8 243 -65 0 10 18 1 9 3 - 0 11 26 1 30 49 82 0 0 1 9 25 16 53 59 7 243 -66 0 40 2 1 38 49 0 18 18 2 0 35 83 0 0 1 39 14 16 54 0 5 243 -67 1 9 50 2 8 38 0 48 5 2 30 25 84 0 0 2 9 4 16 54 0 4 243 -68 1 39 40 2 38 30 1 17 55 3 0 16 85 0 0 2 38 57 16 54 0 3 243 -70 2 9 32 3 8 22 1 47 47 3 30 9 86 0 0 3 8 50 16 54 1 2 244 -71 2 39 25 3 38 16 2 17 40 4 0 3 87 0 0 3 38 43 16 54 1 1 244 -72 3 9 18 4 8 9 2 47 33 4 29 56 Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 95604 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 19 26 42.1820 DE: -26 19 06.464 * position source: mpos:HIP2 pm:HIP2 plx:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .024, .016 ) * V mag [mag]: 7.8 * B mag [mag]: 7.8 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1021) Flammario approx. diameter [km]: 97 approx. diameter ["]: .051 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.62800 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 972 number of rejected observations: 71 time covered by the observations: 1925 May 18 - 2012 Sep 27 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.011, 0.009, 107° remarks: * orbital elements for (1021) Flammario : Mean anomaly = 301.67855898 deg Arg. of pericenter = 287.25265751 deg Long. of node = 115.45711335 deg Inclination = 15.86901047 deg Eccentricity = 0.28450576 Semimajor axis = 2.73770184 AU Perihelion dist = 1.95880991 AU Mag: H = 9.01, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56229.70100000 TDT (2012 Oct 29.701) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 29 1021 Flammario 16h 49.6m UT 7.8 19 26 42.182-26 19 6.46HIP 95604 7.8 14.2 97 4.1 2.628 3.378 0.59 0.8513 -26.319 -76.48 -13.74 16.8270 0.00319 0.06645 13.57242 0.17640 0.00541 0.00068 2000 299.56778720121020.00000287.252658115.457113 15.8690100.28450576 2.7377018 1.9588099 9.0 5.00.15 RATE 2.1758290 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.027 0.019 93 1.37 0.019 0 0 0-4 056208.0020121029__95604 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 07, 19:39 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org