IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (903) Nealley / 2UCAC 31438422 event on 2012 Oct 21, 22:05 UT Visible from Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 21 UT, the 71 km diameter asteroid (903) Nealley will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.3 mag to 14.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.4 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 55 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 21, 22:00 - 2012 Oct 21, 22:10 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456222.42055833 * magnitude of target star: 11.1 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.3 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.4 * Moon: 48 % sunlit, 96° distance * Sun: 166° distance * rough path description: Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 119 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.14 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 5.4 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .042 +/- .055) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .055", .042", 359° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 13.0426 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of 2UCAC 31438422 by 903 Nealley on 2012 Oct 21 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 113 42 2 84 0 0 22 0 48 0 261 -11 95 31 2 ... .. .. 73 42 8 ... .. .. 88 45 37 83 0 0 22 0 50 3 236 -14 80 35 11 99 5 1 65 20 30 ... .. .. Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 87 0 0 82 52 25 22 0 50 4 234 -14 83 30 29 82 15 0 84 59 55 .. .. .. 86 0 0 82 47 51 22 0 50 4 233 -15 83 26 15 82 10 8 84 56 31 .. .. .. 85 0 0 82 43 6 22 0 50 4 232 -15 83 21 50 82 5 3 84 52 57 .. .. .. 84 0 0 82 38 9 22 0 50 4 231 -15 83 17 14 81 59 45 84 49 14 .. .. .. 83 0 0 82 32 59 22 0 50 4 230 -15 83 12 26 81 54 15 84 45 21 .. .. .. 82 0 0 82 27 36 22 0 51 4 229 -15 83 7 26 81 48 31 84 41 18 .. .. .. 81 0 0 82 22 0 22 0 51 5 228 -15 83 2 13 81 42 32 84 37 4 .. .. .. 80 0 0 82 16 10 22 0 51 5 227 -16 82 56 47 81 36 19 84 32 39 80 8 11 79 0 0 82 10 5 22 0 51 5 226 -16 82 51 7 81 29 51 84 28 3 80 0 54 78 0 0 82 3 45 22 0 51 5 225 -16 82 45 13 81 23 7 84 23 14 79 53 20 77 0 0 81 57 10 22 0 52 5 224 -16 82 39 5 81 16 7 84 18 13 79 45 28 76 0 0 81 50 18 22 0 52 5 223 -16 82 32 40 81 8 50 84 12 58 79 37 18 75 0 0 81 43 10 22 0 52 6 222 -16 82 26 0 81 1 15 84 7 29 79 28 49 74 0 0 81 35 43 22 0 52 6 221 -17 82 19 2 80 53 22 84 1 45 79 20 0 73 0 0 81 27 59 22 0 53 6 220 -17 82 11 47 80 45 9 83 55 46 79 10 51 72 0 0 81 19 55 22 0 53 6 219 -17 82 4 14 80 36 37 83 49 31 79 1 20 71 0 0 81 11 31 22 0 53 6 218 -17 81 56 21 80 27 44 83 43 0 78 51 28 70 0 0 81 2 46 22 0 54 7 217 -17 81 48 8 80 18 30 83 36 10 78 41 13 69 0 0 80 53 40 22 0 54 7 216 -18 81 39 35 80 8 53 83 29 2 78 30 34 68 0 0 80 44 11 22 0 54 7 215 -18 81 30 39 79 58 53 83 21 34 78 19 31 67 0 0 80 34 18 22 0 55 7 214 -18 81 21 20 79 48 28 83 13 45 78 8 2 66 0 0 80 24 1 22 0 55 7 213 -18 81 11 38 79 37 39 83 5 35 77 56 7 65 0 0 80 13 18 22 0 56 8 212 -19 81 1 31 79 26 23 82 57 2 77 43 45 64 0 0 80 2 8 22 0 56 8 211 -19 80 50 57 79 14 39 82 48 5 77 30 55 63 0 0 79 50 30 22 0 57 8 210 -19 80 39 56 79 2 28 82 38 43 77 17 35 62 0 0 79 38 23 22 0 57 8 209 -19 80 28 26 78 49 46 82 28 54 77 3 45 61 0 0 79 25 45 22 0 58 9 208 -20 80 16 27 78 36 34 82 18 37 76 49 24 60 0 0 79 12 36 22 0 58 9 207 -20 80 3 56 78 22 50 82 7 50 76 34 30 59 0 0 78 58 54 22 0 59 9 206 -20 79 50 53 78 8 33 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23 26 25 22 10 26 3 92 -14 23 59 5 22 54 9 25 15 15 .. .. .. - 57 0 0 23 24 55 22 10 26 2 91 -13 23 57 35 22 52 39 25 13 45 .. .. .. - 58 0 0 23 24 14 22 10 27 1 91 -12 23 56 55 22 51 58 25 13 5 .. .. .. - 59 0 0 23 24 23 22 10 27 0 91 -11 23 57 4 22 52 6 25 13 17 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: 2UCAC 31438422 * constellation : Cetus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 02 15 20.9596 DE: -00 39 43.140 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .027, .052 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.1 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (903) Nealley approx. diameter [km]: 71 approx. diameter ["]: .046 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.13300 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1150 number of rejected observations: 43 time covered by the observations: 1918 Sep 13 - 2012 Oct 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.033, 0.018, 78° remarks: * orbital elements for (903) Nealley : Mean anomaly = 353.64799780 deg Arg. of pericenter = 238.33963546 deg Long. of node = 159.66171409 deg Inclination = 11.74904983 deg Eccentricity = 0.04057695 Semimajor axis = 3.23993876 AU Perihelion dist = 3.10847192 AU Mag: H = 10.00, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56221.92000000 TDT (2012 Oct 21.920) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 21 903 Nealley 22h 5.6m UT 11.1 2 15 20.960- 0 39 43.142UCAC 31438422 0.0 14.3 71 5.4 2.133 -1.747 -15.29 31.6857 -0.657 -155.27 -11.09 22.0934 -0.40532 0.69423 -6.35750 -3.71148 -0.00068 0.00120 2000 353.32350920121020.00000238.339635159.661714 11.7490500.04057695 3.2399388 3.1084719 9.8 5.00.15 RATE 1.6900470 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.055 0.042 359 2.14 0.052 0 0-4 0 056208.0020121021_438422 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 07, 19:13 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org