IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (232) Russia / TYC 1299-01396-1 event on 2012 Oct 18, 21:54 UT Visible from Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 18 UT, the 53 km diameter asteroid (232) Russia will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.8 mag to 15.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.9 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 60 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 18, 21:21 - 2012 Oct 18, 22:21 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456219.41259167 * magnitude of target star: 11.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.8 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.9 * Moon: 16 % sunlit, 165° distance * Sun: 118° distance * rough path description: Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 55 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.03 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 14.9 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .037 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .037", .026", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 3.1536 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1299-01396-1 by 232 Russia on 2012 Oct 18 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 101 0 0 -41 8 57 22 21 21 31 341 -1 -41 42 2 -40 35 58 -42 50 30 -39 28 18 100 0 0 -39 35 5 22 20 46 33 342 -2 -40 8 43 -39 1 34 -41 18 18 -37 52 47 99 0 0 -37 57 8 22 20 8 35 343 -3 -38 31 17 -37 23 4 -39 41 59 -36 13 13 98 0 0 -36 15 2 22 19 26 37 344 -5 -36 49 42 -35 40 28 -38 1 28 -34 29 33 97 0 0 -34 28 48 22 18 41 39 345 -6 -35 3 58 -33 53 45 -36 16 45 -32 41 51 96 0 0 -32 38 30 22 17 52 41 346 -8 -33 14 7 -32 2 59 -34 27 52 -30 50 10 95 0 0 -30 44 13 22 16 59 43 347 -9 -31 20 16 -30 8 18 -32 34 53 -28 54 38 94 0 0 -28 46 10 22 16 2 45 348 -11 -29 22 34 -28 9 53 -30 37 58 -26 55 30 93 0 0 -26 44 35 22 15 1 47 350 -12 -27 21 18 -26 8 0 -28 37 20 -24 53 2 92 0 0 -24 39 49 22 13 57 49 351 -14 -25 16 45 -24 3 0 -26 33 17 -22 47 36 91 0 0 -22 32 16 22 12 48 52 353 -16 -23 9 21 -21 55 19 -24 26 13 -20 39 40 90 0 0 -20 22 27 22 11 35 54 354 -18 -20 59 35 -19 45 28 -22 16 36 -18 29 44 89 0 0 -18 10 56 22 10 20 56 356 -20 -18 48 2 -17 34 1 -20 4 58 -16 18 26 88 0 0 -15 58 22 22 9 1 58 359 -22 -16 35 18 -15 21 36 -17 51 58 -14 6 23 87 0 0 -13 45 24 22 7 40 61 1 -23 -14 22 5 -13 8 54 -15 38 14 -11 54 15 86 0 0 -11 32 44 22 6 17 63 4 -25 -12 9 4 -10 56 36 -13 24 30 - 9 42 44 85 0 0 - 9 21 3 22 4 53 65 7 -27 - 9 56 55 - 8 45 23 -11 11 25 - 7 32 29 84 0 0 - 7 10 59 22 3 28 67 11 -29 - 7 46 19 - 6 35 52 - 8 59 43 - 5 24 6 83 0 0 - 5 3 8 22 2 2 68 16 -31 - 5 37 51 - 4 28 38 - 6 49 59 - 3 18 10 82 0 0 - 2 58 2 22 0 37 70 21 -33 - 3 32 3 - 2 24 12 - 4 42 47 - 1 15 8 81 0 0 - 0 56 6 21 59 13 71 27 -35 - 1 29 24 - 0 23 0 - 2 38 37 0 44 35 80 0 0 1 2 18 21 57 49 72 33 -36 0 29 46 1 34 39 - 0 37 53 2 40 41 79 0 0 2 56 54 21 56 28 73 40 -38 2 25 9 3 28 28 1 19 7 4 32 55 78 0 0 4 47 31 21 55 8 73 48 -40 4 16 33 5 18 18 3 12 10 6 21 10 77 0 0 6 34 2 21 53 50 73 55 -41 6 3 51 7 4 3 5 1 7 8 5 19 76 0 0 8 16 24 21 52 35 73 62 -43 7 47 0 8 45 38 6 45 53 9 45 21 75 0 0 9 54 37 21 51 22 73 68 -44 9 25 59 10 23 6 8 26 27 11 21 17 74 0 0 11 28 44 21 50 11 72 74 -46 11 0 50 11 56 29 10 2 51 12 53 11 73 0 0 12 58 50 21 49 3 71 79 -47 12 31 38 13 25 52 11 35 9 14 21 8 72 0 0 14 24 59 21 47 57 70 83 -48 13 58 29 14 51 21 13 3 26 15 45 15 71 0 0 15 47 20 21 46 54 69 87 -49 15 21 30 16 13 3 14 27 50 17 5 38 70 0 0 17 6 1 21 45 53 68 90 -50 16 40 48 17 31 7 15 48 27 18 22 27 69 0 0 18 21 10 21 44 55 67 93 -51 17 56 33 18 45 41 17 5 27 19 35 48 68 0 0 19 32 56 21 43 59 65 95 -52 19 8 52 19 56 52 18 18 58 20 45 52 67 0 0 20 41 26 21 43 5 64 96 -53 20 17 55 21 4 51 19 29 9 21 52 45 66 0 0 21 46 50 21 42 14 63 98 -54 21 23 50 22 9 45 20 36 8 22 56 38 65 0 0 22 49 16 21 41 24 62 99 -55 22 26 45 23 11 42 21 40 5 23 57 37 64 0 0 23 48 53 21 40 36 60 100 -56 23 26 49 24 10 51 22 41 6 24 55 51 63 0 0 24 45 47 21 39 51 59 101 -56 24 24 9 25 7 19 23 39 21 25 51 27 62 0 0 25 40 6 21 39 7 58 101 -57 25 18 54 26 1 14 24 34 57 26 44 32 61 0 0 26 31 58 21 38 25 57 102 -58 26 11 9 26 52 43 25 28 1 27 35 14 60 0 0 27 21 29 21 37 44 56 102 -58 27 1 2 27 41 52 26 18 40 28 23 39 59 0 0 28 8 46 21 37 5 54 102 -59 27 48 39 28 28 48 27 7 2 29 9 53 58 0 0 28 53 54 21 36 28 53 103 -59 28 34 7 29 13 37 27 53 11 29 54 2 57 0 0 29 36 59 21 35 52 52 103 -60 29 17 32 29 56 24 28 37 14 30 36 11 56 0 0 30 18 7 21 35 17 51 103 -60 29 58 57 30 37 14 29 19 17 31 16 26 55 0 0 30 57 23 21 34 44 50 103 -60 30 38 30 31 16 13 29 59 25 31 54 51 54 0 0 31 34 51 21 34 12 49 102 -61 31 16 14 31 53 26 30 37 42 32 31 32 53 0 0 32 10 36 21 33 41 48 102 -61 31 52 14 32 28 56 31 14 14 33 6 32 52 0 0 32 44 43 21 33 11 47 102 -61 32 26 34 33 2 48 31 49 4 33 39 55 51 0 0 33 17 14 21 32 42 46 102 -62 32 59 19 33 35 6 32 22 17 34 11 46 50 0 0 33 48 14 21 32 14 45 101 -62 33 30 32 34 5 53 32 53 56 34 42 7 49 0 0 34 17 46 21 31 48 44 101 -62 34 0 16 34 35 13 33 24 5 35 11 3 48 0 0 34 45 53 21 31 22 43 101 -62 34 28 35 35 3 9 33 52 48 35 38 36 47 0 0 35 12 39 21 30 57 42 100 -62 34 55 32 35 29 44 34 20 8 36 4 49 46 0 0 35 38 6 21 30 33 41 100 -62 35 21 9 35 55 2 34 46 6 36 29 46 45 0 0 36 2 18 21 30 10 40 100 -62 35 45 30 36 19 3 35 10 48 36 53 28 44 0 0 36 25 16 21 29 48 39 99 -62 36 8 37 36 41 52 35 34 14 37 15 59 43 0 0 36 47 3 21 29 26 38 99 -62 36 30 33 37 3 30 35 56 27 37 37 19 42 0 0 37 7 40 21 29 5 37 98 -62 36 51 19 37 24 0 36 17 30 37 57 33 41 0 0 37 27 11 21 28 45 36 98 -62 37 10 57 37 43 24 36 37 25 38 16 41 40 0 0 37 45 38 21 28 26 35 97 -62 37 29 31 38 1 43 36 56 13 38 34 45 39 0 0 38 3 1 21 28 7 34 97 -62 37 47 1 38 18 59 37 13 57 38 51 48 38 0 0 38 19 23 21 27 48 33 96 -62 38 3 29 38 35 15 37 30 39 39 7 51 37 0 0 38 34 44 21 27 31 33 96 -61 38 18 57 38 50 31 37 46 19 39 22 54 36 0 0 38 49 8 21 27 14 32 95 -61 38 33 26 39 4 49 38 1 0 39 37 1 35 0 0 39 2 35 21 26 57 31 94 -61 38 46 58 39 18 10 38 14 43 39 50 12 34 0 0 39 15 6 21 26 42 30 94 -61 38 59 34 39 30 36 38 27 29 40 2 28 33 0 0 39 26 42 21 26 26 29 93 -61 39 11 15 39 42 8 38 39 20 40 13 51 32 0 0 39 37 26 21 26 11 28 93 -60 39 22 2 39 52 47 38 50 16 40 24 22 31 0 0 39 47 17 21 25 57 28 92 -60 39 31 57 40 2 35 39 0 19 40 34 1 30 0 0 39 56 16 21 25 43 27 91 -60 39 41 0 40 11 31 39 9 29 40 42 50 29 0 0 40 4 25 21 25 30 26 91 -60 39 49 12 40 19 36 39 17 48 40 50 49 28 0 0 40 11 44 21 25 17 25 90 -59 39 56 35 40 26 53 39 25 17 40 58 0 27 0 0 40 18 15 21 25 4 24 90 -59 40 3 8 40 33 21 39 31 55 41 4 22 26 0 0 40 23 57 21 24 52 23 89 -59 40 8 52 40 39 0 39 37 45 41 9 57 25 0 0 40 28 51 21 24 41 23 88 -58 40 13 49 40 43 53 39 42 46 41 14 45 24 0 0 40 32 59 21 24 30 22 88 -58 40 17 58 40 47 58 39 46 58 41 18 47 23 0 0 40 36 19 21 24 19 21 87 -58 40 21 20 40 51 17 39 50 24 41 22 3 22 0 0 40 38 54 21 24 9 20 86 -57 40 23 56 40 53 51 39 53 3 41 24 34 21 0 0 40 40 43 21 23 59 20 86 -57 40 25 46 40 55 38 39 54 55 41 26 20 20 0 0 40 41 46 21 23 49 19 85 -57 40 26 50 40 56 41 39 56 0 41 27 21 19 0 0 40 42 4 21 23 40 18 84 -56 40 27 9 40 56 58 39 56 20 41 27 37 18 0 0 40 41 37 21 23 31 17 84 -56 40 26 42 40 56 31 39 55 54 41 27 9 17 0 0 40 40 26 21 23 23 16 83 -55 40 25 31 40 55 20 39 54 43 41 25 58 16 0 0 40 38 30 21 23 15 16 82 -55 40 23 34 40 53 24 39 52 46 41 24 2 15 0 0 40 35 49 21 23 7 15 82 -54 40 20 53 40 50 43 39 50 4 41 21 23 14 0 0 40 32 24 21 23 0 14 81 -54 40 17 27 40 47 19 39 46 37 41 17 59 13 0 0 40 28 14 21 22 53 13 81 -54 40 13 17 40 43 10 39 42 25 41 13 52 12 0 0 40 23 20 21 22 47 12 80 -53 40 8 21 40 38 17 39 37 27 41 9 2 11 0 0 40 17 41 21 22 41 12 79 -53 40 2 41 40 32 39 39 31 44 41 3 27 10 0 0 40 11 17 21 22 35 11 79 -52 39 56 16 40 26 17 39 25 16 40 57 8 9 0 0 40 4 9 21 22 30 10 78 -52 39 49 6 40 19 11 39 18 2 40 50 5 8 0 0 39 56 15 21 22 25 9 77 -51 39 41 10 40 11 19 39 10 3 40 42 18 7 0 0 39 47 37 21 22 20 9 77 -51 39 32 29 40 2 43 39 1 17 40 33 46 6 0 0 39 38 12 21 22 16 8 76 -50 39 23 3 39 53 21 38 51 45 40 24 29 5 0 0 39 28 2 21 22 12 7 75 -50 39 12 50 39 43 13 38 41 27 40 14 27 4 0 0 39 17 6 21 22 9 6 75 -49 39 1 50 39 32 20 38 30 22 40 3 39 3 0 0 39 5 22 21 22 6 5 74 -49 38 50 4 39 20 40 38 18 29 39 52 5 2 0 0 38 52 52 21 22 3 4 73 -48 38 37 31 39 8 13 38 5 49 39 39 45 1 0 0 38 39 35 21 22 1 4 73 -48 38 24 10 38 54 59 37 52 20 39 26 38 0 0 0 38 25 29 21 22 0 3 72 -47 38 10 0 38 40 57 37 38 3 39 12 44 - 1 0 0 38 10 35 21 21 58 2 72 -47 37 55 2 38 26 6 37 22 57 38 58 2 - 2 0 0 37 54 52 21 21 57 1 71 -46 37 39 15 38 10 27 37 7 1 38 42 32 - 3 0 0 37 38 19 21 21 57 0 70 -46 37 22 38 37 53 59 36 50 15 38 26 12 Uncertainty in time = +/- 19 secs Prediction of 2012 Oct 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1299-01396-1 * constellation : Taurus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 48 12.3089 DE: +15 42 58.622 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .031, .023 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.4 * B mag [mag]: 12.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (232) Russia approx. diameter [km]: 53 approx. diameter ["]: .033 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.21400 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Oct 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1002 number of rejected observations: 71 time covered by the observations: 1913 Sep 24 - 2012 Oct 02 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.021, 0.011, 86° remarks: * orbital elements for (232) Russia : Mean anomaly = 240.55025207 deg Arg. of pericenter = 51.62484608 deg Long. of node = 152.32906665 deg Inclination = 6.06132912 deg Eccentricity = 0.17450025 Semimajor axis = 2.55512123 AU Perihelion dist = 2.10925194 AU Mag: H = 10.37, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56218.91300000 TDT (2012 Oct 18.913) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 18 232 Russia 21h 54.1m UT 11.4 5 48 12.309 15 42 58.62TYC 1299-01396-1 12.0 15.2 53 16.9 2.214 0.275 -5.84 90.7317 15.718 -152.28 -10.02 21.9022 -0.23533 -0.15906 1.00443 -1.46952 -0.00511 0.00027 2000 238.39939920121010.00000 51.624846152.329067 6.0613290.17450025 2.5551212 2.109251910.3 5.00.15 RATE 2.4131640 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.037 0.026 89 2.03 0.034 0 0-1 2 056208.0020121018_1396-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Oct 07, 19:01 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org