IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (277) Elvira / TYC 5240-01404-1 event on 2012 Oct 09, 10:45 UT Visible from N Australia Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 09 UT, the 29 km diameter asteroid (277) Elvira will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across N Australia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.0 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.5 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 36 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 09, 10:26 - 2012 Oct 09, 11:02 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456209.94862917 * magnitude of target star: 11.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.0 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 5.5 * Moon: 39 % sunlit, 139° distance * Sun: 144° distance * rough path description: N Australia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 29 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.82 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 9.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .037 +/- .043) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .043", .037", 357° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 5.3668 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 5240-01404-1 by 277 Elvira on 2012 Oct 9 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 105 0 0 -25 6 26 11 2 0 36 79 -1 -24 58 24 -25 14 27 -24 29 13 -25 43 37 106 0 0 -24 55 1 11 1 49 37 78 -1 -24 46 59 -25 3 3 -24 17 46 -25 32 16 107 0 0 -24 43 12 11 1 38 38 78 -2 -24 35 10 -24 51 15 -24 5 53 -25 20 31 108 0 0 -24 30 59 11 1 27 39 78 -3 -24 22 56 -24 39 2 -23 53 37 -25 8 21 109 0 0 -24 18 22 11 1 15 40 77 -4 -24 10 18 -24 26 26 -23 40 56 -24 55 47 110 0 0 -24 5 20 11 1 3 41 77 -5 -23 57 16 -24 13 25 -23 27 51 -24 42 49 111 0 0 -23 51 55 11 0 51 42 76 -6 -23 43 49 -24 0 0 -23 14 22 -24 29 27 112 0 0 -23 38 5 11 0 38 43 76 -7 -23 29 59 -23 46 12 -23 0 29 -24 15 42 113 0 0 -23 23 52 11 0 25 43 76 -8 -23 15 45 -23 31 59 -22 46 12 -24 1 32 114 0 0 -23 9 15 11 0 12 44 75 -9 -23 1 7 -23 17 23 -22 31 31 -23 46 58 115 0 0 -22 54 14 10 59 59 45 75 -10 -22 46 5 -23 2 23 -22 16 26 -23 32 1 116 0 0 -22 38 49 10 59 46 46 75 -10 -22 30 40 -22 46 59 -22 0 58 -23 16 41 117 0 0 -22 23 1 10 59 32 47 74 -11 -22 14 51 -22 31 11 -21 45 5 -23 0 56 118 0 0 -22 6 49 10 59 18 48 74 -12 -21 58 38 -22 15 1 -21 28 50 -22 44 49 119 0 0 -21 50 15 10 59 4 49 74 -13 -21 42 2 -21 58 27 -21 12 11 -22 28 18 120 0 0 -21 33 16 10 58 49 50 73 -14 -21 25 3 -21 41 29 -20 55 9 -22 11 24 121 0 0 -21 15 55 10 58 35 51 73 -15 -21 7 41 -21 24 9 -20 37 43 -21 54 7 122 0 0 -20 58 11 10 58 20 52 73 -16 -20 49 56 -21 6 26 -20 19 55 -21 36 27 123 0 0 -20 40 4 10 58 4 53 73 -17 -20 31 48 -20 48 20 -20 1 44 -21 18 24 124 0 0 -20 21 34 10 57 49 54 72 -18 -20 13 18 -20 29 51 -19 43 10 -20 59 58 125 0 0 -20 2 42 10 57 33 54 72 -19 -19 54 25 -20 11 0 -19 24 14 -20 41 10 126 0 0 -19 43 28 10 57 18 55 72 -20 -19 35 9 -19 51 46 -19 4 55 -20 22 0 127 0 0 -19 23 51 10 57 1 56 71 -21 -19 15 32 -19 32 10 -18 45 14 -20 2 28 128 0 0 -19 3 53 10 56 45 57 71 -21 -18 55 32 -19 12 13 -18 25 12 -19 42 33 129 0 0 -18 43 32 10 56 29 58 71 -22 -18 35 11 -18 51 53 -18 4 47 -19 22 17 130 0 0 -18 22 50 10 56 12 59 71 -23 -18 14 28 -18 31 12 -17 44 1 -19 1 39 131 0 0 -18 1 47 10 55 55 60 70 -24 -17 53 24 -18 10 10 -17 22 54 -18 40 40 132 0 0 -17 40 23 10 55 38 61 70 -25 -17 31 59 -17 48 46 -17 1 25 -18 19 20 133 0 0 -17 18 37 10 55 20 62 70 -26 -17 10 13 -17 27 2 -16 39 35 -17 57 39 134 0 0 -16 56 31 10 55 2 63 70 -27 -16 48 6 -17 4 57 -16 17 25 -17 35 37 135 0 0 -16 34 5 10 54 45 64 70 -28 -16 25 39 -16 42 31 -15 54 55 -17 13 15 136 0 0 -16 11 19 10 54 27 65 69 -29 -16 2 51 -16 19 46 -15 32 5 -16 50 32 137 0 0 -15 48 12 10 54 8 66 69 -30 -15 39 44 -15 56 41 -15 8 54 -16 27 30 138 0 0 -15 24 47 10 53 50 67 69 -31 -15 16 18 -15 33 16 -14 45 25 -16 4 8 139 0 0 -15 1 2 10 53 31 68 69 -32 -14 52 32 -15 9 32 -14 21 36 -15 40 27 140 0 0 -14 36 58 10 53 12 69 69 -33 -14 28 27 -14 45 29 -13 57 28 -15 16 28 141 0 0 -14 12 35 10 52 53 70 69 -34 -14 4 4 -14 21 7 -13 33 2 -14 52 9 142 0 0 -13 47 55 10 52 34 71 69 -35 -13 39 22 -13 56 27 -13 8 17 -14 27 32 143 0 0 -13 22 56 10 52 15 72 69 -36 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1 54 24 170 0 0 - 0 43 38 10 42 52 81 234 -63 - 0 34 50 - 0 52 25 - 0 2 50 - 1 24 25 171 0 0 - 0 13 34 10 42 31 80 235 -64 - 0 4 46 - 0 22 22 0 27 15 - 0 54 22 172 0 0 0 16 32 10 42 10 79 235 -65 0 25 20 0 7 45 0 57 21 - 0 24 16 173 0 0 0 46 40 10 41 49 78 236 -66 0 55 28 0 37 52 1 27 30 0 5 51 174 0 0 1 16 49 10 41 28 77 236 -67 1 25 37 1 8 1 1 57 39 0 36 0 175 0 0 1 46 59 10 41 7 75 237 -68 1 55 47 1 38 11 2 27 49 1 6 10 176 0 0 2 17 8 10 40 46 74 237 -69 2 25 56 2 8 21 2 57 59 1 36 19 177 0 0 2 47 17 10 40 26 73 237 -70 2 56 5 2 38 29 3 28 7 2 6 28 178 0 0 3 17 24 10 40 5 72 238 -71 3 26 12 3 8 36 3 58 14 2 36 35 179 0 0 3 47 29 10 39 44 71 238 -72 3 56 17 3 38 41 4 28 19 3 6 41 180 0 0 4 17 31 10 39 24 70 238 -73 4 26 19 4 8 44 4 58 21 3 36 43 -179 0 0 4 47 30 10 39 4 69 238 -74 4 56 18 4 38 43 5 28 19 4 6 43 -178 0 0 5 17 25 10 38 44 68 239 -75 5 26 12 5 8 37 5 58 12 4 36 38 -177 0 0 5 47 14 10 38 24 67 239 -76 5 56 2 5 38 27 6 28 1 5 6 29 -176 0 0 6 16 59 10 38 4 66 239 -77 6 25 46 6 8 12 6 57 44 5 36 14 -175 0 0 6 46 37 10 37 45 65 239 -78 6 55 24 6 37 50 7 27 21 6 5 54 -174 0 0 7 16 8 10 37 25 64 239 -79 7 24 55 7 7 22 7 56 52 6 35 27 -173 0 0 7 45 33 10 37 6 63 240 -79 7 54 19 7 36 47 8 26 14 7 4 52 -172 0 0 8 14 49 10 36 47 62 240 -80 8 23 34 8 6 3 8 55 29 7 34 10 -171 0 0 8 43 56 10 36 28 61 240 -81 8 52 41 8 35 11 9 24 34 8 3 19 -170 0 0 9 12 54 10 36 10 60 240 -82 9 21 39 9 4 10 9 53 31 8 32 19 -169 0 0 9 41 43 10 35 51 59 240 -83 9 50 27 9 32 58 10 22 17 9 1 10 -168 0 0 10 10 21 10 35 33 58 241 -83 10 19 5 10 1 37 10 50 53 9 29 50 -167 0 0 10 38 48 10 35 15 57 241 -84 10 47 31 10 30 4 11 19 17 9 58 19 -166 0 0 11 7 3 10 34 58 56 241 -84 11 15 46 10 58 20 11 47 30 10 26 37 -165 0 0 11 35 6 10 34 40 55 241 -84 11 43 48 11 26 24 12 15 30 10 54 43 -164 0 0 12 2 56 10 34 23 54 242 -84 12 11 38 11 54 14 12 43 18 11 22 36 -163 0 0 12 30 33 10 34 6 53 242 -84 12 39 14 12 21 52 13 10 52 11 50 15 -162 0 0 12 57 56 10 33 49 52 242 -84 13 6 37 12 49 16 13 38 12 12 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19 37 23 2 53 -133 0 0 23 58 59 10 27 56 24 251 -59 24 7 15 23 50 44 24 37 17 23 20 42 -132 0 0 24 16 20 10 27 48 23 252 -58 24 24 35 24 8 6 24 54 34 23 38 8 -131 0 0 24 33 17 10 27 41 22 252 -57 24 41 31 24 25 4 25 11 26 23 55 9 -130 0 0 24 49 50 10 27 34 21 252 -56 24 58 2 24 41 38 25 27 55 24 11 46 -129 0 0 25 5 58 10 27 27 20 253 -55 25 14 10 24 57 47 25 43 59 24 27 59 -128 0 0 25 21 42 10 27 21 19 253 -54 25 29 52 25 13 31 25 59 38 24 43 47 -127 0 0 25 37 1 10 27 15 18 254 -53 25 45 10 25 28 51 26 14 53 24 59 10 -126 0 0 25 51 55 10 27 9 17 254 -52 26 0 4 25 43 46 26 29 43 25 14 8 -125 0 0 26 6 24 10 27 4 16 255 -51 26 14 32 25 58 17 26 44 8 25 28 42 -124 0 0 26 20 29 10 26 59 15 255 -50 26 28 35 26 12 22 26 58 8 25 42 50 -123 0 0 26 34 8 10 26 54 14 255 -50 26 42 14 26 26 2 27 11 43 25 56 33 -122 0 0 26 47 22 10 26 50 13 256 -49 26 55 27 26 39 17 27 24 53 26 9 51 -121 0 0 27 0 11 10 26 45 13 256 -48 27 8 15 26 52 6 27 37 38 26 22 44 -120 0 0 27 12 34 10 26 42 12 257 -47 27 20 38 27 4 31 27 49 58 26 35 11 -119 0 0 27 24 32 10 26 38 11 257 -46 27 32 35 27 16 30 28 1 52 26 47 13 -118 0 0 27 36 5 10 26 35 10 258 -45 27 44 7 27 28 3 28 13 22 26 58 49 -117 0 0 27 47 12 10 26 32 9 258 -44 27 55 13 27 39 11 28 24 25 27 10 0 -116 0 0 27 57 54 10 26 29 8 259 -43 28 5 54 27 49 53 28 35 3 27 20 45 -115 0 0 28 8 10 10 26 27 7 259 -42 28 16 9 28 0 10 28 45 16 27 31 4 -114 0 0 28 18 0 10 26 24 6 260 -42 28 25 59 28 10 1 28 55 3 27 40 58 -113 0 0 28 27 24 10 26 23 5 260 -41 28 35 23 28 19 26 29 4 24 27 50 25 -112 0 0 28 36 23 10 26 21 4 260 -40 28 44 21 28 28 25 29 13 20 27 59 27 -111 0 0 28 44 56 10 26 20 4 261 -39 28 52 53 28 36 59 29 21 50 28 8 2 -110 0 0 28 53 3 10 26 19 3 261 -38 29 0 59 28 45 6 29 29 54 28 16 12 -109 0 0 29 0 44 10 26 18 2 262 -37 29 8 40 28 52 48 29 37 32 28 23 55 -108 0 0 29 7 58 10 26 17 1 262 -36 29 15 54 29 0 3 29 44 45 28 31 13 -107 0 0 29 14 47 10 26 17 0 263 -35 29 22 42 29 6 52 .. .. .. 28 38 4 Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 27.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 5240-01404-1 * constellation : Aquarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 22 45 35.5269 DE: -06 16 33.443 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .024, .039 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.0 * B mag [mag]: 12.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (277) Elvira approx. diameter [km]: 29 approx. diameter ["]: .023 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.76400 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Sep 26 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1264 number of rejected observations: 79 time covered by the observations: 1905 Dec 27 - 2012 Sep 14 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.029, 0.017, 68° remarks: * orbital elements for (277) Elvira : Mean anomaly = 347.21729239 deg Arg. of pericenter = 136.99579134 deg Long. of node = 231.56643902 deg Inclination = 1.16304384 deg Eccentricity = 0.08797459 Semimajor axis = 2.88481936 AU Perihelion dist = 2.63102856 AU Mag: H = 9.75, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56209.44800000 TDT (2012 Oct 09.448) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 9 277 Elvira 10h 46.0m UT 11.0 22 45 35.527- 6 16 33.44TYC 5240-01404-1 12.0 13.9 29 5.5 1.764 -0.893 -7.10 161.4325 -6.274 15.29 -6.51 10.7671 -0.00808 0.01974 -2.67297 -1.42520 0.00313 0.00115 2000 345.3168002012 930.00000136.995791231.566439 1.1630440.08797459 2.8848194 2.6310286 9.8 5.00.15 RATE 2.0115280 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.043 0.037 357 2.82 0.041 0 0-1-3 056197.0020121009_1404-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 26, 22:07 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org