IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (9) Metis / UCAC2 40000398 event on 2012 Oct 08, 10:43 UT Visible from USA, NW Mexico Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 08 UT, the 200 km diameter asteroid (9) Metis will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across USA, NW Mexico. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 10.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.2 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 08, 10:36 - 2012 Oct 08, 10:43 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456208.94627917 * magnitude of target star: 10.9 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.5 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.2 * Moon: 48 % sunlit, 8° distance * Sun: 95° distance * rough path description: USA, NW Mexico The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 208 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.13 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 1.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .024 +/- .021) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .024", .021", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 16.3518 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 40000398 by 9 Metis on 2012 Oct 8 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -169 0 0 11 30 47 10 36 24 1 66 -81 10 29 10 12 32 45 10 13 12 12 48 55 -168 0 0 11 57 6 10 36 24 2 66 -82 10 55 26 12 59 7 10 39 27 13 15 18 -167 0 0 12 23 30 10 36 24 3 67 -82 11 21 47 13 25 34 11 5 48 13 41 46 -166 0 0 12 49 59 10 36 25 4 67 -82 11 48 13 13 52 5 11 32 13 14 8 18 -165 0 0 13 16 31 10 36 25 5 67 -82 12 14 43 14 18 40 11 58 42 14 34 53 -164 0 0 13 43 6 10 36 26 6 67 -82 12 41 16 14 45 17 12 25 15 15 1 31 -163 0 0 14 9 44 10 36 27 7 68 -82 13 7 52 15 11 57 12 51 50 15 28 11 -162 0 0 14 36 23 10 36 28 8 68 -82 13 34 30 15 38 38 13 18 27 15 54 53 -161 0 0 15 3 4 10 36 29 9 68 -81 14 1 8 16 5 20 13 45 6 16 21 35 -160 0 0 15 29 44 10 36 30 10 68 -80 14 27 48 16 32 1 14 11 45 16 48 16 -159 0 0 15 56 24 10 36 32 11 69 -80 14 54 27 16 58 42 14 38 23 17 14 58 -158 0 0 16 23 3 10 36 33 12 69 -79 15 21 5 17 25 21 15 5 1 17 41 37 -157 0 0 16 49 39 10 36 35 14 69 -78 15 47 41 17 51 59 15 31 38 18 8 14 -156 0 0 17 16 14 10 36 37 15 70 -77 16 14 15 18 18 33 15 58 12 18 34 49 -155 0 0 17 42 44 10 36 39 16 70 -76 16 40 46 18 45 4 16 24 43 19 1 19 -154 0 0 18 9 11 10 36 41 17 70 -76 17 7 13 19 11 30 16 51 10 19 27 46 -153 0 0 18 35 33 10 36 43 18 71 -75 17 33 36 19 37 52 17 17 33 19 54 7 -152 0 0 19 1 50 10 36 45 19 71 -74 17 59 54 20 4 8 17 43 51 20 20 23 -151 0 0 19 28 1 10 36 48 20 71 -73 18 26 6 20 30 17 18 10 3 20 46 32 -150 0 0 19 54 5 10 36 50 21 72 -72 18 52 11 20 56 20 18 36 8 21 12 34 -149 0 0 20 20 1 10 36 53 22 72 -71 19 18 9 21 22 15 19 2 7 21 38 29 -148 0 0 20 45 50 10 36 56 23 72 -70 19 44 0 21 48 1 19 27 58 22 4 15 -147 0 0 21 11 30 10 36 59 24 73 -69 20 9 42 22 13 39 19 53 41 22 29 52 -146 0 0 21 37 0 10 37 2 25 73 -68 20 35 15 22 39 7 20 19 14 22 55 19 -145 0 0 22 2 21 10 37 5 26 74 -67 21 0 38 23 4 25 20 44 38 23 20 37 -144 0 0 22 27 31 10 37 8 27 74 -66 21 25 51 23 29 32 21 9 52 23 45 43 -143 0 0 22 52 30 10 37 12 28 75 -65 21 50 53 23 54 28 21 34 55 24 10 38 -142 0 0 23 17 18 10 37 15 29 75 -64 22 15 44 24 19 12 21 59 46 24 35 21 -141 0 0 23 41 53 10 37 19 30 76 -63 22 40 22 24 43 44 22 24 26 24 59 52 -140 0 0 24 6 15 10 37 22 31 76 -62 23 4 49 25 8 2 22 48 53 25 24 9 -139 0 0 24 30 24 10 37 26 32 77 -61 23 29 2 25 32 7 23 13 7 25 48 13 -138 0 0 24 54 20 10 37 30 33 77 -60 23 53 1 25 55 58 23 37 8 26 12 3 -137 0 0 25 18 1 10 37 34 34 78 -59 24 16 46 26 19 35 24 0 54 26 35 39 -136 0 0 25 41 27 10 37 38 35 78 -58 24 40 17 26 42 56 24 24 26 26 58 59 -135 0 0 26 4 38 10 37 42 36 79 -57 25 3 33 27 6 2 24 47 43 27 22 4 -134 0 0 26 27 33 10 37 46 37 80 -56 25 26 33 27 28 53 25 10 45 27 44 53 -133 0 0 26 50 12 10 37 50 38 80 -55 25 49 17 27 51 27 25 33 30 28 7 25 -132 0 0 27 12 35 10 37 55 39 81 -54 26 11 45 28 13 44 25 55 59 28 29 41 -131 0 0 27 34 41 10 37 59 40 81 -53 26 33 56 28 35 44 26 18 12 28 51 40 -130 0 0 27 56 29 10 38 3 41 82 -52 26 55 50 28 57 27 26 40 7 29 13 22 -129 0 0 28 18 0 10 38 8 42 83 -51 27 17 27 29 18 52 27 1 45 29 34 45 -128 0 0 28 39 13 10 38 12 43 83 -50 27 38 46 29 40 0 27 23 5 29 55 51 -127 0 0 29 0 8 10 38 17 44 84 -49 27 59 46 30 0 48 27 44 7 30 16 38 -126 0 0 29 20 44 10 38 22 44 85 -48 28 20 28 30 21 18 28 4 51 30 37 6 -125 0 0 29 41 1 10 38 27 45 86 -47 28 40 51 30 41 29 28 25 16 30 57 16 -124 0 0 30 0 59 10 38 31 46 86 -46 29 0 56 31 1 21 28 45 22 31 17 6 -123 0 0 30 20 38 10 38 36 47 87 -46 29 20 40 31 20 53 29 5 8 31 36 36 -122 0 0 30 39 57 10 38 41 48 88 -45 29 40 6 31 40 6 29 24 35 31 55 47 -121 0 0 30 58 56 10 38 46 49 89 -44 29 59 11 31 58 58 29 43 42 32 14 38 -120 0 0 31 17 35 10 38 51 50 90 -43 30 17 57 32 17 31 30 2 29 32 33 9 -119 0 0 31 35 54 10 38 56 51 91 -42 30 36 22 32 35 43 30 20 56 32 51 20 -118 0 0 31 53 52 10 39 1 52 92 -41 30 54 27 32 53 35 30 39 2 33 9 10 -117 0 0 32 11 30 10 39 6 52 93 -40 31 12 11 33 11 6 30 56 48 33 26 39 -116 0 0 32 28 47 10 39 11 53 94 -39 31 29 34 33 28 17 31 14 13 33 43 48 -115 0 0 32 45 43 10 39 16 54 95 -38 31 46 37 33 45 6 31 31 18 34 0 36 -114 0 0 33 2 18 10 39 22 55 96 -37 32 3 18 34 1 35 31 48 1 34 17 3 -113 0 0 33 18 32 10 39 27 56 97 -36 32 19 39 34 17 42 32 4 23 34 33 8 -112 0 0 33 34 24 10 39 32 57 98 -35 32 35 38 34 33 28 32 20 24 34 48 53 -111 0 0 33 49 56 10 39 37 57 99 -35 32 51 16 34 48 53 32 36 3 35 4 16 -110 0 0 34 5 6 10 39 43 58 100 -34 33 6 32 35 3 57 32 51 21 35 19 18 -109 0 0 34 19 54 10 39 48 59 101 -33 33 21 27 35 18 39 33 6 17 35 33 58 -108 0 0 34 34 21 10 39 53 60 103 -32 33 36 0 35 32 59 33 20 52 35 48 17 -107 0 0 34 48 26 10 39 59 60 104 -31 33 50 11 35 46 58 33 35 5 36 2 14 -106 0 0 35 2 10 10 40 4 61 105 -30 34 4 1 36 0 36 33 48 56 36 15 50 -105 0 0 35 15 32 10 40 9 62 107 -29 34 17 29 36 13 51 34 2 26 36 29 4 -104 0 0 35 28 32 10 40 15 63 108 -28 34 30 35 36 26 45 34 15 34 36 41 57 -103 0 0 35 41 10 10 40 20 63 110 -28 34 43 19 36 39 18 34 28 19 36 54 27 -102 0 0 35 53 27 10 40 26 64 111 -27 34 55 42 36 51 29 34 40 43 37 6 37 -101 0 0 36 5 22 10 40 31 65 113 -26 35 7 42 37 3 18 34 52 45 37 18 24 -100 0 0 36 16 55 10 40 37 65 115 -25 35 19 21 37 14 45 35 4 25 37 29 50 - 99 0 0 36 28 6 10 40 42 66 116 -24 35 30 37 37 25 51 35 15 43 37 40 55 - 98 0 0 36 38 56 10 40 48 67 118 -23 35 41 32 37 36 35 35 26 39 37 51 37 - 97 0 0 36 49 23 10 40 53 67 120 -23 35 52 5 37 46 57 35 37 14 38 1 58 - 96 0 0 36 59 29 10 40 58 68 122 -22 36 2 16 37 56 58 35 47 26 38 11 58 - 95 0 0 37 9 13 10 41 4 69 124 -21 36 12 5 38 6 37 35 57 16 38 21 36 - 94 0 0 37 18 36 10 41 9 69 127 -20 36 21 32 38 15 55 36 6 44 38 30 52 - 93 0 0 37 27 36 10 41 15 70 129 -19 36 30 37 38 24 51 36 15 51 38 39 47 - 92 0 0 37 36 15 10 41 20 70 131 -18 36 39 21 38 33 25 36 24 35 38 48 20 - 91 0 0 37 44 32 10 41 26 71 134 -18 36 47 42 38 41 38 36 32 58 38 56 31 - 90 0 0 37 52 28 10 41 31 71 136 -17 36 55 42 38 49 29 36 40 59 39 4 22 - 89 0 0 38 0 2 10 41 37 72 139 -16 37 3 20 38 56 59 36 48 38 39 11 50 - 88 0 0 38 7 14 10 41 42 72 142 -15 37 10 36 39 4 8 36 55 55 39 18 58 - 87 0 0 38 14 5 10 41 48 72 145 -14 37 17 30 39 10 55 37 2 50 39 25 44 - 86 0 0 38 20 34 10 41 53 73 148 -13 37 24 3 39 17 20 37 9 23 39 32 9 - 85 0 0 38 26 41 10 41 59 73 151 -13 37 30 14 39 23 24 37 15 35 39 38 12 - 84 0 0 38 32 27 10 42 4 73 154 -12 37 36 3 39 29 7 37 21 25 39 43 54 - 83 0 0 38 37 52 10 42 10 74 157 -11 37 41 30 39 34 29 37 26 53 39 49 15 - 82 0 0 38 42 55 10 42 15 74 160 -10 37 46 36 39 39 29 37 32 0 39 54 14 - 81 0 0 38 47 37 10 42 21 74 164 -9 37 51 20 39 44 8 37 36 45 39 58 53 - 80 0 0 38 51 57 10 42 26 74 167 -9 37 55 43 39 48 26 37 41 8 40 3 10 - 79 0 0 38 55 56 10 42 31 74 171 -8 37 59 44 39 52 23 37 45 10 40 7 6 - 78 0 0 38 59 34 10 42 37 74 174 -7 38 3 24 39 55 58 37 48 50 40 10 41 - 77 0 0 39 2 50 10 42 42 74 178 -6 38 6 42 39 59 13 37 52 8 40 13 55 - 76 0 0 39 5 45 10 42 48 74 181 -6 38 9 38 40 2 6 37 55 5 40 16 48 - 75 0 0 39 8 18 10 42 53 74 185 -5 38 12 13 40 4 38 37 57 41 40 19 20 - 74 0 0 39 10 31 10 42 59 74 188 -4 38 14 27 40 6 49 37 59 54 40 21 30 - 73 0 0 39 12 22 10 43 4 74 192 -3 38 16 19 40 8 39 38 1 47 40 23 20 - 72 0 0 39 13 51 10 43 9 74 195 -2 38 17 49 40 10 8 38 3 18 40 24 49 - 71 0 0 39 15 0 10 43 15 73 198 -2 38 18 58 40 11 16 38 4 27 40 25 56 - 70 0 0 39 15 47 10 43 20 73 201 -1 38 19 46 40 12 3 38 5 15 40 26 43 - 69 0 0 39 16 13 10 43 25 73 204 0 38 20 12 40 12 29 38 5 41 40 27 9 Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 10.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 40000398 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 06 46 18.7437 DE: +23 23 37.641 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .020, .019 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.9 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 101.7765521542 DE(deg): 23.3778112537 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000062422484468 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (9) Metis approx. diameter [km]: 200 approx. diameter ["]: .157 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.75900 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 09 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1899 number of rejected observations: 186 time covered by the observations: 1903 Mar 22 - 2011 Nov 04 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.012, 0.007, 88° remarks: * orbital elements for (9) Metis : Mean anomaly = 357.94188629 deg Arg. of pericenter = 5.94844651 deg Long. of node = 68.94646707 deg Inclination = 5.57551904 deg Eccentricity = 0.12299251 Semimajor axis = 2.38689908 AU Perihelion dist = 2.09332837 AU Mag: H = 6.23, G = 0.17 Epoch of elements : MJD 56208.44700000 TDT (2012 Oct 08.447) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 8 9 Metis 10h 42.6m UT 10.9 6 46 18.744 23 23 37.64UCAC2 40000398 0.0 10.3 200 12.2 1.759 3.346 2.67 -76.5535 23.393 16.20 -6.13 10.7107 -0.01817 0.26603 9.21401 0.53297 -0.00535 0.00043 2000 355.6842422012 930.00000 5.948447 68.946467 5.5755190.12299251 2.3868991 2.0933284 6.3 5.00.17 RATE 2.6727170 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.024 0.021 89 1.13 0.021 0 0-3 1 056118.0020121008_000398 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 26, 02:00 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org