IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (19) Fortuna / UCAC2 23988338 event on 2012 Oct 03, 05:01 UT Visible from S Pacific Ocean Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 03 UT, the 230 km diameter asteroid (19) Fortuna will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across S Pacific Ocean. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.6 mag to 11.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 18.1 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 03, 05:00 - 2012 Oct 03, 05:08 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456203.70914583 * magnitude of target star: 12.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 18.1 * Moon: 91 % sunlit, 116° distance * Sun: 99° distance * rough path description: S Pacific Ocean The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 248 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.19 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 5.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .049 +/- .030) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .049", .030", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.7133 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 23988338 by 19 Fortuna on 2012 Oct 3 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -164 0 0 -42 41 8 5 0 11 67 17 0 -43 48 27 -41 34 20 -44 14 11 -41 9 5 -163 0 0 -42 39 22 5 0 18 67 15 -1 -43 46 42 -41 32 33 -44 12 26 -41 7 17 -162 0 0 -42 37 17 5 0 24 67 12 -2 -43 44 38 -41 30 26 -44 10 23 -41 5 10 -161 0 0 -42 34 53 5 0 31 67 10 -2 -43 42 16 -41 28 1 -44 8 1 -41 2 44 -160 0 0 -42 32 10 5 0 37 68 7 -3 -43 39 35 -41 25 16 -44 5 21 -40 59 59 -159 0 0 -42 29 9 5 0 44 68 5 -4 -43 36 36 -41 22 13 -44 2 22 -40 56 55 -158 0 0 -42 25 49 5 0 51 68 2 -5 -43 33 18 -41 18 51 -43 59 5 -40 53 32 -157 0 0 -42 22 10 5 0 57 68 359 -5 -43 29 41 -41 15 10 -43 55 30 -40 49 50 -156 0 0 -42 18 12 5 1 4 68 357 -6 -43 25 46 -41 11 10 -43 51 36 -40 45 49 -155 0 0 -42 13 56 5 1 11 68 354 -7 -43 21 33 -41 6 50 -43 47 23 -40 41 29 -154 0 0 -42 9 21 5 1 18 68 352 -8 -43 17 0 -41 2 12 -43 42 52 -40 36 49 -153 0 0 -42 4 27 5 1 24 68 349 -8 -43 12 10 -40 57 15 -43 38 2 -40 31 51 -152 0 0 -41 59 14 5 1 31 68 346 -9 -43 7 0 -40 51 59 -43 32 54 -40 26 34 -151 0 0 -41 53 42 5 1 38 68 344 -10 -43 1 32 -40 46 24 -43 27 27 -40 20 57 -150 0 0 -41 47 51 5 1 44 68 341 -11 -42 55 45 -40 40 30 -43 21 42 -40 15 2 -149 0 0 -41 41 42 5 1 51 67 339 -11 -42 49 40 -40 34 16 -43 15 38 -40 8 47 -148 0 0 -41 35 14 5 1 58 67 336 -12 -42 43 15 -40 27 44 -43 9 15 -40 2 13 -147 0 0 -41 28 26 5 2 5 67 334 -13 -42 36 32 -40 20 52 -43 2 34 -39 55 20 -146 0 0 -41 21 20 5 2 12 67 331 -14 -42 29 30 -40 13 42 -42 55 34 -39 48 8 -145 0 0 -41 13 55 5 2 18 66 329 -14 -42 22 10 -40 6 12 -42 48 15 -39 40 36 -144 0 0 -41 6 11 5 2 25 66 327 -15 -42 14 31 -39 58 23 -42 40 37 -39 32 46 -143 0 0 -40 58 8 5 2 32 66 324 -16 -42 6 32 -39 50 16 -42 32 41 -39 24 36 -142 0 0 -40 49 46 5 2 39 65 322 -17 -41 58 15 -39 41 49 -42 24 26 -39 16 7 -141 0 0 -40 41 5 5 2 46 65 320 -18 -41 49 40 -39 33 2 -42 15 52 -39 7 19 -140 0 0 -40 32 5 5 2 52 65 318 -18 -41 40 45 -39 23 57 -42 7 0 -38 58 12 -139 0 0 -40 22 46 5 2 59 64 316 -19 -41 31 32 -39 14 33 -41 57 48 -38 48 46 -138 0 0 -40 13 8 5 3 6 64 314 -20 -41 21 59 -39 4 49 -41 48 18 -38 39 0 -137 0 0 -40 3 11 5 3 13 63 312 -21 -41 12 8 -38 54 47 -41 38 29 -38 28 56 -136 0 0 -39 52 55 5 3 20 63 310 -22 -41 1 58 -38 44 25 -41 28 22 -38 18 32 -135 0 0 -39 42 20 5 3 26 62 308 -22 -40 51 29 -38 33 45 -41 17 55 -38 7 49 -134 0 0 -39 31 27 5 3 33 62 306 -23 -40 40 42 -38 22 45 -41 7 10 -37 56 47 -133 0 0 -39 20 14 5 3 40 61 304 -24 -40 29 35 -38 11 26 -40 56 6 -37 45 26 -132 0 0 -39 8 43 5 3 47 61 302 -25 -40 18 10 -37 59 49 -40 44 43 -37 33 47 -131 0 0 -38 56 52 5 3 54 60 301 -25 -40 6 26 -37 47 52 -40 33 2 -37 21 48 -130 0 0 -38 44 43 5 4 0 60 299 -26 -39 54 24 -37 35 37 -40 21 2 -37 9 30 -129 0 0 -38 32 16 5 4 7 59 298 -27 -39 42 2 -37 23 3 -40 8 43 -36 56 54 -128 0 0 -38 19 29 5 4 14 58 296 -28 -39 29 23 -37 10 10 -39 56 6 -36 43 58 -127 0 0 -38 6 24 5 4 21 58 294 -29 -39 16 24 -36 56 59 -39 43 10 -36 30 45 -126 0 0 -37 53 1 5 4 27 57 293 -29 -39 3 7 -36 43 29 -39 29 55 -36 17 12 -125 0 0 -37 39 19 5 4 34 56 292 -30 -38 49 32 -36 29 40 -39 16 23 -36 3 21 -124 0 0 -37 25 18 5 4 41 56 290 -31 -38 35 38 -36 15 33 -39 2 32 -35 49 12 -123 0 0 -37 10 59 5 4 47 55 289 -32 -38 21 26 -36 1 8 -38 48 22 -35 34 44 -122 0 0 -36 56 23 5 4 54 54 288 -33 -38 6 56 -35 46 24 -38 33 55 -35 19 58 -121 0 0 -36 41 28 5 5 0 54 286 -34 -37 52 8 -35 31 23 -38 19 9 -35 4 54 -120 0 0 -36 26 15 5 5 7 53 285 -34 -37 37 2 -35 16 4 -38 4 6 -34 49 32 -119 0 0 -36 10 44 5 5 13 52 284 -35 -37 21 38 -35 0 26 -37 48 44 -34 33 52 -118 0 0 -35 54 56 5 5 20 51 283 -36 -37 5 56 -34 44 31 -37 33 5 -34 17 55 -117 0 0 -35 38 50 5 5 26 51 282 -37 -36 49 57 -34 28 19 -37 17 9 -34 1 40 -116 0 0 -35 22 27 5 5 33 50 280 -38 -36 33 40 -34 11 49 -37 0 55 -33 45 8 -115 0 0 -35 5 46 5 5 39 49 279 -38 -36 17 7 -33 55 3 -36 44 23 -33 28 19 -114 0 0 -34 48 49 5 5 45 48 278 -39 -36 0 16 -33 37 59 -36 27 35 -33 11 13 -113 0 0 -34 31 35 5 5 52 48 277 -40 -35 43 8 -33 20 39 -36 10 30 -32 53 50 -112 0 0 -34 14 4 5 5 58 47 276 -41 -35 25 44 -33 3 2 -35 53 8 -32 36 11 -111 0 0 -33 56 17 5 6 4 46 275 -42 -35 8 3 -32 45 9 -35 35 30 -32 18 16 -110 0 0 -33 38 14 5 6 10 45 274 -42 -34 50 6 -32 26 59 -35 17 35 -32 0 4 -109 0 0 -33 19 55 5 6 16 44 273 -43 -34 31 53 -32 8 35 -34 59 24 -31 41 37 -108 0 0 -33 1 20 5 6 22 43 273 -44 -34 13 24 -31 49 54 -34 40 58 -31 22 55 -107 0 0 -32 42 30 5 6 28 43 272 -45 -33 54 40 -31 30 59 -34 22 16 -31 3 57 -106 0 0 -32 23 26 5 6 34 42 271 -46 -33 35 41 -31 11 48 -34 3 19 -30 44 45 -105 0 0 -32 4 6 5 6 40 41 270 -46 -33 16 27 -30 52 23 -33 44 7 -30 25 18 -104 0 0 -31 44 32 5 6 45 40 269 -47 -32 56 58 -30 32 44 -33 24 41 -30 5 37 -103 0 0 -31 24 44 5 6 51 39 268 -48 -32 37 15 -30 12 51 -33 5 0 -29 45 42 -102 0 0 -31 4 42 5 6 57 38 268 -49 -32 17 19 -29 52 45 -32 45 5 -29 25 34 -101 0 0 -30 44 27 5 7 2 37 267 -50 -31 57 8 -29 32 25 -32 24 56 -29 5 12 -100 0 0 -30 23 59 5 7 7 36 266 -50 -31 36 45 -29 11 53 -32 4 35 -28 44 38 - 99 0 0 -30 3 19 5 7 13 36 265 -51 -31 16 9 -28 51 8 -31 44 0 -28 23 52 - 98 0 0 -29 42 26 5 7 18 35 265 -52 -30 55 20 -28 30 11 -31 23 14 -28 2 53 - 97 0 0 -29 21 21 5 7 23 34 264 -53 -30 34 20 -28 9 3 -31 2 15 -27 41 44 - 96 0 0 -29 0 6 5 7 28 33 263 -53 -30 13 8 -27 47 43 -30 41 4 -27 20 23 - 95 0 0 -28 38 39 5 7 33 32 263 -54 -29 51 45 -27 26 13 -30 19 42 -26 58 51 - 94 0 0 -28 17 2 5 7 37 31 262 -55 -29 30 11 -27 4 33 -29 58 10 -26 37 10 - 93 0 0 -27 55 15 5 7 42 30 261 -56 -29 8 27 -26 42 43 -29 36 27 -26 15 19 - 92 0 0 -27 33 18 5 7 47 29 261 -56 -28 46 33 -26 20 43 -29 14 34 -25 53 19 - 91 0 0 -27 11 13 5 7 51 28 260 -57 -28 24 30 -25 58 35 -28 52 32 -25 31 10 - 90 0 0 -26 48 59 5 7 55 27 260 -58 -28 2 18 -25 36 19 -28 30 22 -25 8 52 - 89 0 0 -26 26 37 5 8 0 26 259 -58 -27 39 58 -25 13 55 -28 8 2 -24 46 28 - 88 0 0 -26 4 7 5 8 4 25 259 -59 -27 17 31 -24 51 24 -27 45 35 -24 23 56 - 87 0 0 -25 41 31 5 8 8 24 258 -59 -26 54 56 -24 28 46 -27 23 1 -24 1 18 - 86 0 0 -25 18 48 5 8 11 23 258 -60 -26 32 15 -24 6 2 -27 0 20 -23 38 33 - 85 0 0 -24 55 59 5 8 15 22 257 -61 -26 9 27 -23 43 12 -26 37 33 -23 15 43 - 84 0 0 -24 33 5 5 8 18 21 257 -61 -25 46 34 -23 20 18 -26 14 40 -22 52 48 - 83 0 0 -24 10 7 5 8 22 20 256 -62 -25 23 36 -22 57 19 -25 51 43 -22 29 49 - 82 0 0 -23 47 4 5 8 25 19 256 -62 -25 0 33 -22 34 16 -25 28 40 -22 6 46 - 81 0 0 -23 23 58 5 8 28 18 255 -63 -24 37 27 -22 11 10 -25 5 34 -21 43 40 - 80 0 0 -23 0 49 5 8 31 17 255 -63 -24 14 17 -21 48 1 -24 42 24 -21 20 31 - 79 0 0 -22 37 37 5 8 34 16 254 -63 -23 51 5 -21 24 50 -24 19 12 -20 57 20 - 78 0 0 -22 14 23 5 8 36 15 254 -64 -23 27 51 -21 1 37 -23 55 57 -20 34 8 - 77 0 0 -21 51 9 5 8 39 14 254 -64 -23 4 35 -20 38 23 -23 32 41 -20 10 55 - 76 0 0 -21 27 53 5 8 41 13 253 -64 -22 41 18 -20 15 9 -23 9 24 -19 47 41 - 75 0 0 -21 4 38 5 8 43 12 253 -64 -22 18 1 -19 51 56 -22 46 6 -19 24 28 - 74 0 0 -20 41 23 5 8 45 11 252 -65 -21 54 45 -19 28 42 -22 22 49 -19 1 16 - 73 0 0 -20 18 9 5 8 47 10 252 -65 -21 31 29 -19 5 31 -21 59 32 -18 38 5 - 72 0 0 -19 54 57 5 8 49 9 252 -65 -21 8 15 -18 42 21 -21 36 17 -18 14 56 - 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Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 27.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 23988338 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 19 20 35.6842 DE: -20 18 05.971 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .048, .030 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.0 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (19) Fortuna approx. diameter [km]: 230 approx. diameter ["]: .163 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.94100 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Sep 26 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1876 number of rejected observations: 263 time covered by the observations: 1900 Feb 12 - 2012 Sep 20 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.008, 0.006, 82° remarks: * orbital elements for (19) Fortuna : Mean anomaly = 297.90425266 deg Arg. of pericenter = 182.36230122 deg Long. of node = 211.23555638 deg Inclination = 1.57339406 deg Eccentricity = 0.15784235 Semimajor axis = 2.44201773 AU Perihelion dist = 2.05656392 AU Mag: H = 7.17, G = 0.10 Epoch of elements : MJD 56203.20900000 TDT (2012 Oct 03.209) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 3 19 Fortuna 5h 1.2m UT 12.0 19 20 35.684-20 18 5.97UCAC2 23988338 0.0 11.6 230 18.1 1.941 2.304 2.46 -157.4523 -20.303 101.96 -4.12 5.0195 0.02809 -0.37054 7.15519 0.54237 0.00539 0.00072 2000 297.0754512012 930.00000182.362301211.235556 1.5733940.15784235 2.4420177 2.0565639 7.1 5.00.10 RATE 2.5827410 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.049 0.030 90 1.19 0.030 0 0 2-1 056197.0020121003_988338 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 26, 21:55 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org