IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (2378) Pannekoek / TYC 0716-01584-1 event on 2012 Oct 02, 23:06 UT Visible from Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Oct 02 UT, the 38 km diameter asteroid (2378) Pannekoek will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.8 mag to 15.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.5 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 39 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Oct 02, 22:59 - 2012 Oct 02, 23:08 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456203.46263333 * magnitude of target star: 9.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 5.8 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 2.5 * Moon: 92 % sunlit, 51° distance * Sun: 100° distance * rough path description: Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 42 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.70 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.9 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .052 +/- .039) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .052", .039", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 15.2270 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0716-01584-1 by 2378 Pannekoek on 2012 Oct 2 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 3 0 0 4 37 22 22 59 54 1 82 -81 4 25 51 4 48 53 3 46 30 .. .. .. 4 0 0 4 45 25 22 59 54 2 82 -82 4 33 55 4 56 55 3 54 37 .. .. .. 5 0 0 4 52 53 22 59 54 3 82 -83 4 41 22 5 4 22 4 2 7 .. .. .. 6 0 0 4 59 43 22 59 55 4 82 -84 4 48 14 5 11 12 4 9 1 .. .. .. 7 0 0 5 5 58 22 59 55 5 82 -85 4 54 29 5 17 26 4 15 19 5 56 17 8 0 0 5 11 37 22 59 56 6 82 -86 5 0 9 5 23 4 4 21 0 6 1 53 9 0 0 5 16 39 22 59 57 7 82 -86 5 5 11 5 28 6 4 26 4 6 6 53 10 0 0 5 21 5 22 59 58 8 82 -87 5 9 38 5 32 32 4 30 32 6 11 17 11 0 0 5 24 55 22 59 59 9 83 -88 5 13 28 5 36 21 4 34 23 6 15 5 12 0 0 5 28 8 23 0 0 10 83 -88 5 16 41 5 39 34 4 37 38 6 18 17 13 0 0 5 30 45 23 0 2 11 83 -88 5 19 18 5 42 10 4 40 16 6 20 53 14 0 0 5 32 45 23 0 3 12 83 -88 5 21 19 5 44 11 4 42 17 6 22 53 15 0 0 5 34 9 23 0 5 13 83 -87 5 22 43 5 45 34 4 43 41 6 24 16 16 0 0 5 34 56 23 0 7 14 83 -86 5 23 30 5 46 21 4 44 28 6 25 3 17 0 0 5 35 6 23 0 9 15 83 -85 5 23 40 5 46 32 4 44 38 6 25 14 18 0 0 5 34 40 23 0 11 16 83 -84 5 23 13 5 46 5 4 44 11 6 24 48 19 0 0 5 33 37 23 0 13 17 83 -83 5 22 10 5 45 2 4 43 6 6 23 45 20 0 0 5 31 56 23 0 16 18 83 -82 5 20 29 5 43 22 4 41 25 6 22 6 21 0 0 5 29 39 23 0 18 19 83 -81 5 18 12 5 41 5 4 39 6 6 19 51 22 0 0 5 26 45 23 0 21 20 83 -80 5 15 17 5 38 12 4 36 10 6 16 59 23 0 0 5 23 14 23 0 24 21 83 -79 5 11 45 5 34 41 4 32 37 6 13 29 24 0 0 5 19 5 23 0 27 22 83 -78 5 7 36 5 30 33 4 28 25 6 9 23 25 0 0 5 14 19 23 0 30 23 83 -77 5 2 50 5 25 48 4 23 37 6 4 40 26 0 0 5 8 56 23 0 33 24 83 -76 4 57 26 5 20 26 4 18 11 5 59 20 27 0 0 5 2 56 23 0 36 25 83 -75 4 51 25 5 14 26 4 12 7 5 53 23 28 0 0 4 56 18 23 0 40 25 83 -74 4 44 46 5 7 49 4 5 25 5 46 49 29 0 0 4 49 2 23 0 43 26 83 -73 4 37 30 5 0 34 3 58 5 5 39 38 30 0 0 4 41 9 23 0 47 27 83 -72 4 29 35 4 52 42 3 50 8 5 31 49 31 0 0 4 32 39 23 0 51 28 83 -71 4 21 4 4 44 12 3 41 32 5 23 23 32 0 0 4 23 30 23 0 55 29 83 -70 4 11 54 4 35 5 3 32 18 5 14 19 33 0 0 4 13 43 23 0 59 30 83 -69 4 2 6 4 25 20 3 22 26 5 4 38 34 0 0 4 3 19 23 1 3 31 83 -68 3 51 40 4 14 56 3 11 56 4 54 19 35 0 0 3 52 17 23 1 8 32 83 -67 3 40 37 4 3 55 3 0 48 4 43 23 36 0 0 3 40 36 23 1 12 33 83 -66 3 28 55 3 52 16 2 49 1 4 31 49 37 0 0 3 28 18 23 1 17 34 82 -65 3 16 35 3 39 59 2 36 36 4 19 37 38 0 0 3 15 21 23 1 22 35 82 -64 3 3 36 3 27 4 2 23 32 4 6 47 39 0 0 3 1 46 23 1 27 36 82 -63 2 50 0 3 13 31 2 9 50 3 53 19 40 0 0 2 47 33 23 1 32 37 82 -62 2 35 45 2 59 19 1 55 29 3 39 13 41 0 0 2 32 41 23 1 37 38 82 -61 2 20 51 2 44 30 1 40 29 3 24 29 42 0 0 2 17 11 23 1 43 39 81 -60 2 5 20 2 29 2 1 24 51 3 9 7 43 0 0 2 1 3 23 1 48 40 81 -59 1 49 10 2 12 55 1 8 34 2 53 8 44 0 0 1 44 16 23 1 54 41 81 -58 1 32 21 1 56 11 0 51 39 2 36 30 45 0 0 1 26 52 23 1 59 42 80 -57 1 14 54 1 38 48 0 34 5 2 19 14 46 0 0 1 8 48 23 2 5 43 80 -56 0 56 49 1 20 47 0 15 52 2 1 20 47 0 0 0 50 7 23 2 11 44 79 -55 0 38 5 1 2 7 - 0 2 59 1 42 47 48 0 0 0 30 47 23 2 17 45 79 -54 0 18 43 0 42 50 - 0 22 29 1 23 37 49 0 0 0 10 49 23 2 24 46 78 -53 - 0 1 17 0 22 54 - 0 42 37 1 3 49 50 0 0 - 0 9 47 23 2 30 47 78 -51 - 0 21 56 0 2 20 - 1 3 23 0 43 23 51 0 0 - 0 31 1 23 2 36 48 77 -50 - 0 43 12 - 0 18 52 - 1 24 48 0 22 20 52 0 0 - 0 52 53 23 2 43 49 77 -49 - 1 5 7 - 0 40 41 - 1 46 51 0 0 38 53 0 0 - 1 15 23 23 2 50 50 76 -48 - 1 27 39 - 1 3 9 - 2 9 32 - 0 21 41 54 0 0 - 1 38 31 23 2 57 51 75 -47 - 1 50 49 - 1 26 14 - 2 32 51 - 0 44 37 55 0 0 - 2 2 16 23 3 3 51 74 -46 - 2 14 37 - 1 49 56 - 2 56 48 - 1 8 11 56 0 0 - 2 26 38 23 3 11 52 73 -45 - 2 39 2 - 2 14 15 - 3 21 21 - 1 32 21 57 0 0 - 2 51 37 23 3 18 53 72 -44 - 3 4 3 - 2 39 12 - 3 46 33 - 1 57 9 58 0 0 - 3 17 13 23 3 25 54 71 -43 - 3 29 42 - 3 4 45 - 4 12 20 - 2 22 33 59 0 0 - 3 43 25 23 3 32 55 70 -42 - 3 55 57 - 3 30 54 - 4 38 45 - 2 48 33 60 0 0 - 4 10 13 23 3 40 56 69 -41 - 4 22 48 - 3 57 40 - 5 5 46 - 3 15 9 61 0 0 - 4 37 37 23 3 47 56 68 -40 - 4 50 15 - 4 25 1 - 5 33 22 - 3 42 20 62 0 0 - 5 5 36 23 3 55 57 66 -39 - 5 18 17 - 4 52 57 - 6 1 34 - 4 10 7 63 0 0 - 5 34 10 23 4 3 58 65 -37 - 5 46 54 - 5 21 28 - 6 30 21 - 4 38 29 64 0 0 - 6 3 19 23 4 11 59 63 -36 - 6 16 5 - 5 50 34 - 6 59 42 - 5 7 24 65 0 0 - 6 33 1 23 4 18 59 62 -35 - 6 45 50 - 6 20 13 - 7 29 37 - 5 36 54 66 0 0 - 7 3 16 23 4 26 60 60 -34 - 7 16 8 - 6 50 26 - 8 0 6 - 6 6 57 67 0 0 - 7 34 4 23 4 35 61 58 -33 - 7 47 0 - 7 21 11 - 8 31 7 - 6 37 32 68 0 0 - 8 5 25 23 4 43 61 56 -32 - 8 18 23 - 7 52 28 - 9 2 41 - 7 8 40 69 0 0 - 8 37 16 23 4 51 62 54 -31 - 8 50 17 - 8 24 17 - 9 34 45 - 7 40 18 70 0 0 - 9 9 38 23 4 59 62 52 -30 - 9 22 42 - 8 56 36 -10 7 20 - 8 12 28 71 0 0 - 9 42 30 23 5 7 63 50 -29 - 9 55 37 - 9 29 25 -10 40 25 - 8 45 7 72 0 0 -10 15 51 23 5 16 63 48 -28 -10 29 1 -10 2 43 -11 13 59 - 9 18 15 73 0 0 -10 49 40 23 5 24 63 45 -26 -11 2 53 -10 36 29 -11 48 1 - 9 51 52 74 0 0 -11 23 56 23 5 33 64 43 -25 -11 37 12 -11 10 42 -12 22 30 -10 25 55 75 0 0 -11 58 39 23 5 41 64 40 -24 -12 11 57 -11 45 22 -12 57 25 -11 0 26 76 0 0 -12 33 46 23 5 50 64 38 -23 -12 47 8 -12 20 27 -13 32 45 -11 35 21 77 0 0 -13 9 18 23 5 58 64 35 -22 -13 22 42 -12 55 56 -14 8 29 -12 10 41 78 0 0 -13 45 13 23 6 7 64 32 -21 -13 58 39 -13 31 48 -14 44 36 -12 46 24 79 0 0 -14 21 29 23 6 15 64 30 -20 -14 34 59 -14 8 2 -15 21 4 -13 22 29 80 0 0 -14 58 6 23 6 24 64 27 -19 -15 11 38 -14 44 36 -15 57 53 -13 58 55 81 0 0 -15 35 3 23 6 32 64 24 -18 -15 48 38 -15 21 30 -16 35 0 -14 35 40 82 0 0 -16 12 18 23 6 41 64 22 -17 -16 25 55 -15 58 43 -17 12 26 -15 12 45 83 0 0 -16 49 49 23 6 50 64 19 -16 -17 3 29 -16 36 12 -17 50 8 -15 50 6 84 0 0 -17 27 36 23 6 58 63 16 -14 -17 41 18 -17 13 57 -18 28 5 -16 27 43 85 0 0 -18 5 37 23 7 7 63 14 -13 -18 19 21 -17 51 55 -19 6 16 -17 5 34 86 0 0 -18 43 51 23 7 15 63 11 -12 -18 57 37 -18 30 7 -19 44 39 -17 43 39 87 0 0 -19 22 16 23 7 23 62 9 -11 -19 36 4 -19 8 30 -20 23 13 -18 21 55 88 0 0 -20 0 50 23 7 32 62 7 -10 -20 14 40 -19 47 3 -21 1 56 -19 0 21 89 0 0 -20 39 33 23 7 40 61 4 -9 -20 53 25 -20 25 44 -21 40 47 -19 38 56 90 0 0 -21 18 23 23 7 48 61 2 -8 -21 32 16 -21 4 31 -22 19 44 -20 17 39 91 0 0 -21 57 18 23 7 56 60 0 -7 -22 11 12 -21 43 25 -22 58 46 -20 56 26 92 0 0 -22 36 16 23 8 4 59 358 -6 -22 50 12 -22 22 22 -23 37 51 -21 35 18 93 0 0 -23 15 16 23 8 12 59 356 -5 -23 29 14 -23 1 21 -24 16 57 -22 14 13 94 0 0 -23 54 18 23 8 20 58 354 -4 -24 8 16 -23 40 21 -24 56 4 -22 53 9 95 0 0 -24 33 18 23 8 28 57 353 -3 -24 47 18 -24 19 20 -25 35 8 -23 32 5 96 0 0 -25 12 15 23 8 36 56 351 -2 -25 26 16 -24 58 16 -26 14 10 -24 10 58 97 0 0 -25 51 9 23 8 44 56 349 -1 -26 5 11 -25 37 9 -26 53 8 -24 49 48 98 0 0 -26 29 57 23 8 51 55 348 0 -26 43 59 -26 15 57 -27 31 59 -25 28 33 Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 10.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0716-01584-1 * constellation : Orion * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 59 48.7720 DE: +08 11 02.415 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .024, .024 ) * V mag [mag]: 9.6 * B mag [mag]: 10.7 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 90.1317386760 DE(deg): 8.1842378995 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000062415237646 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (2378) Pannekoek approx. diameter [km]: 38 approx. diameter ["]: .025 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.12000 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 09 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1020 number of rejected observations: 32 time covered by the observations: 1918 Sep 16 - 2012 Jan 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.046, 0.030, 89° remarks: * orbital elements for (2378) Pannekoek : Mean anomaly = 345.27512930 deg Arg. of pericenter = 265.27770247 deg Long. of node = 181.22979447 deg Inclination = 14.24707231 deg Eccentricity = 0.14468631 Semimajor axis = 2.89023530 AU Perihelion dist = 2.47205783 AU Mag: H = 10.97, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56202.96300000 TDT (2012 Oct 02.963) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Oct 2 2378 Pannekoek 23h 6.2m UT 9.6 5 59 48.772 8 11 2.41TYC 0716-01584-1 10.7 15.4 38 2.5 2.120 2.075 -17.94 91.3391 8.189 -169.28 -4.02 23.1032 -0.21767 -0.37392 7.42809 -4.32312 -0.00552 0.00025 2000 344.6807882012 930.00000265.277702181.229794 14.2470720.14468631 2.8902353 2.472057810.7 5.00.15 RATE 2.0058770 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.052 0.039 89 2.70 0.042 0 0 0 5 056118.0020121002_1584-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 06, 17:10 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org