IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (71) Niobe / TYC 0564-01679-1 event on 2012 Sep 20, 23:47 UT Visible from Africa, Venezuela, Colombia Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 20 UT, the 81 km diameter asteroid (71) Niobe will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a path across Africa, Venezuela, Colombia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.3 mag to 11.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.6 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 93 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 20, 23:38 - 2012 Sep 20, 23:54 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456191.4909875 * magnitude of target star: 10.7 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.3 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 6.6 * Moon: 29 % sunlit, 93° distance * Sun: 153° distance * rough path description: Africa, Venezuela, Colombia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 81 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.48 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 3.4 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .029 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .029", .026", 78° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.2715 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0564-01679-1 by 71 Niobe on 2012 Sep 20 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 90 0 0 1 34 20 23 54 45 26 83 0 1 56 46 1 11 56 2 18 18 0 50 26 - 89 0 0 1 44 43 23 54 40 27 83 -1 2 7 8 1 22 18 2 28 41 1 0 48 - 88 0 0 1 55 10 23 54 36 28 83 -2 2 17 36 1 32 45 2 39 8 1 11 14 - 87 0 0 2 5 41 23 54 32 29 83 -3 2 28 7 1 43 16 2 49 40 1 21 45 - 86 0 0 2 16 16 23 54 27 30 83 -4 2 38 43 1 53 51 3 0 16 1 32 20 - 85 0 0 2 26 56 23 54 23 31 84 -5 2 49 23 2 4 30 3 10 57 1 42 59 - 84 0 0 2 37 39 23 54 18 32 84 -6 3 0 6 2 15 13 3 21 40 1 53 42 - 83 0 0 2 48 26 23 54 13 33 84 -7 3 10 54 2 26 0 3 32 28 2 4 29 - 82 0 0 2 59 17 23 54 8 34 84 -8 3 21 44 2 36 50 3 43 19 2 15 19 - 81 0 0 3 10 11 23 54 3 35 84 -9 3 32 38 2 47 44 3 54 13 2 26 12 - 80 0 0 3 21 7 23 53 57 36 84 -10 3 43 35 2 58 40 4 5 10 2 37 8 - 79 0 0 3 32 7 23 53 52 37 84 -11 3 54 35 3 9 40 4 16 10 2 48 7 - 78 0 0 3 43 9 23 53 46 38 84 -12 4 5 37 3 20 41 4 27 12 2 59 9 - 77 0 0 3 54 13 23 53 41 39 84 -13 4 16 42 3 31 46 4 38 17 3 10 13 - 76 0 0 4 5 20 23 53 35 40 85 -14 4 27 48 3 42 52 4 49 24 3 21 19 - 75 0 0 4 16 28 23 53 29 41 85 -15 4 38 57 3 54 1 5 0 33 3 32 28 - 74 0 0 4 27 39 23 53 23 42 85 -16 4 50 8 4 5 11 5 11 43 3 43 38 - 73 0 0 4 38 51 23 53 17 43 85 -17 5 1 20 4 16 23 5 22 56 3 54 50 - 72 0 0 4 50 4 23 53 11 44 85 -18 5 12 33 4 27 36 5 34 9 4 6 3 - 71 0 0 5 1 19 23 53 4 45 85 -19 5 23 48 4 38 50 5 45 24 4 17 17 - 70 0 0 5 12 34 23 52 58 46 86 -20 5 35 3 4 50 6 5 56 39 4 28 32 - 69 0 0 5 23 50 23 52 51 47 86 -21 5 46 19 5 1 22 6 7 56 4 39 48 - 68 0 0 5 35 7 23 52 45 48 86 -22 5 57 36 5 12 39 6 19 13 4 51 5 - 67 0 0 5 46 24 23 52 38 49 86 -23 6 8 53 5 23 56 6 30 30 5 2 22 - 66 0 0 5 57 41 23 52 31 50 87 -24 6 20 11 5 35 13 6 41 47 5 13 39 - 65 0 0 6 8 58 23 52 24 51 87 -25 6 31 28 5 46 30 6 53 4 5 24 56 - 64 0 0 6 20 15 23 52 17 52 87 -26 6 42 45 5 57 47 7 4 21 5 36 13 - 63 0 0 6 31 32 23 52 10 53 87 -27 6 54 1 6 9 3 7 15 37 5 47 29 - 62 0 0 6 42 47 23 52 3 54 88 -27 7 5 17 6 20 19 7 26 53 5 58 45 - 61 0 0 6 54 2 23 51 56 55 88 -28 7 16 31 6 31 34 7 38 8 6 10 0 - 60 0 0 7 5 16 23 51 48 56 88 -29 7 27 45 6 42 48 7 49 21 6 21 14 - 59 0 0 7 16 28 23 51 41 57 89 -30 7 38 57 6 54 0 8 0 34 6 32 27 - 58 0 0 7 27 39 23 51 33 58 89 -31 7 50 8 7 5 11 8 11 44 6 43 38 - 57 0 0 7 38 49 23 51 26 59 89 -32 8 1 18 7 16 21 8 22 54 6 54 47 - 56 0 0 7 49 56 23 51 18 60 90 -33 8 12 25 7 27 28 8 34 1 7 5 55 - 55 0 0 8 1 2 23 51 10 61 90 -34 8 23 30 7 38 34 8 45 6 7 17 1 - 54 0 0 8 12 5 23 51 3 62 91 -35 8 34 33 7 49 37 8 56 9 7 28 4 - 53 0 0 8 23 5 23 50 55 63 91 -36 8 45 34 8 0 38 9 7 9 7 39 5 - 52 0 0 8 34 4 23 50 47 64 92 -37 8 56 32 8 11 36 9 18 7 7 50 3 - 51 0 0 8 44 59 23 50 39 64 92 -38 9 7 27 8 22 32 9 29 2 8 0 59 - 50 0 0 8 55 51 23 50 31 65 93 -39 9 18 19 8 33 24 9 39 54 8 11 52 - 49 0 0 9 6 40 23 50 23 66 94 -40 9 29 8 8 44 13 9 50 43 8 22 41 - 48 0 0 9 17 26 23 50 15 67 95 -40 9 39 54 8 54 59 10 1 28 8 33 27 - 47 0 0 9 28 8 23 50 6 68 95 -41 9 50 36 9 5 42 10 12 10 8 44 10 - 46 0 0 9 38 47 23 49 58 69 96 -42 10 1 14 9 16 20 10 22 48 8 54 49 - 45 0 0 9 49 21 23 49 50 70 97 -43 10 11 48 9 26 55 10 33 22 9 5 24 - 44 0 0 9 59 52 23 49 42 71 98 -44 10 22 18 9 37 26 10 43 52 9 15 55 - 43 0 0 10 10 18 23 49 33 72 99 -45 10 32 44 9 47 52 10 54 18 9 26 22 - 42 0 0 10 20 40 23 49 25 73 100 -46 10 43 6 9 58 14 11 4 39 9 36 44 - 41 0 0 10 30 57 23 49 16 74 102 -47 10 53 23 10 8 32 11 14 56 9 47 2 - 40 0 0 10 41 9 23 49 8 75 103 -48 11 3 35 10 18 45 11 25 8 9 57 15 - 39 0 0 10 51 17 23 49 0 75 105 -49 11 13 42 10 28 52 11 35 15 10 7 23 - 38 0 0 11 1 19 23 48 51 76 107 -49 11 23 44 10 38 55 11 45 17 10 17 26 - 37 0 0 11 11 16 23 48 42 77 109 -50 11 33 41 10 48 53 11 55 13 10 27 23 - 36 0 0 11 21 8 23 48 34 78 111 -51 11 43 33 10 58 45 12 5 4 10 37 16 - 35 0 0 11 30 54 23 48 25 79 114 -52 11 53 18 11 8 31 12 14 50 10 47 3 - 34 0 0 11 40 35 23 48 17 80 117 -53 12 2 59 11 18 12 12 24 30 10 56 44 - 33 0 0 11 50 9 23 48 8 80 121 -54 12 12 33 11 27 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15 51 38 15 7 12 16 12 58 14 45 54 - 4 0 0 15 35 13 23 44 3 69 248 -73 15 57 25 15 13 1 16 18 46 14 51 43 - 3 0 0 15 40 51 23 43 55 68 249 -73 16 3 4 15 18 40 16 24 24 14 57 23 - 2 0 0 15 46 21 23 43 48 67 250 -73 16 8 33 15 24 10 16 29 52 15 2 53 - 1 0 0 15 51 41 23 43 40 66 250 -73 16 13 52 15 29 30 16 35 12 15 8 13 0 0 0 15 56 51 23 43 32 65 251 -73 16 19 2 15 34 40 16 40 21 15 13 24 1 0 0 16 1 51 23 43 24 64 252 -73 16 24 2 15 39 41 16 45 21 15 18 25 2 0 0 16 6 42 23 43 17 63 253 -73 16 28 53 15 44 32 16 50 11 15 23 16 3 0 0 16 11 23 23 43 9 62 253 -73 16 33 33 15 49 13 16 54 51 15 27 58 4 0 0 16 15 54 23 43 1 62 254 -73 16 38 4 15 53 45 16 59 22 15 32 29 5 0 0 16 20 15 23 42 54 61 254 -73 16 42 25 15 58 6 17 3 42 15 36 51 6 0 0 16 24 26 23 42 47 60 255 -73 16 46 35 16 2 17 17 7 53 15 41 2 7 0 0 16 28 27 23 42 39 59 256 -72 16 50 36 16 6 18 17 11 53 15 45 4 8 0 0 16 32 17 23 42 32 58 256 -72 16 54 26 16 10 9 17 15 43 15 48 55 9 0 0 16 35 58 23 42 25 57 257 -72 16 58 7 16 13 50 17 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272 -39 16 46 50 16 2 33 17 8 7 15 41 18 53 0 0 16 20 25 23 38 46 16 273 -38 16 42 34 15 58 16 17 3 51 15 37 2 54 0 0 16 15 59 23 38 43 15 273 -38 16 38 8 15 53 50 16 59 26 15 32 35 55 0 0 16 11 21 23 38 41 14 273 -37 16 33 31 15 49 12 16 54 49 15 27 57 56 0 0 16 6 34 23 38 39 13 273 -36 16 28 44 15 44 24 16 50 2 15 23 9 57 0 0 16 1 35 23 38 37 12 274 -35 16 23 46 15 39 26 16 45 4 15 18 10 58 0 0 15 56 27 23 38 35 11 274 -34 16 18 37 15 34 16 16 39 56 15 13 0 59 0 0 15 51 7 23 38 34 10 274 -33 16 13 19 15 28 57 16 34 38 15 7 40 60 0 0 15 45 38 23 38 32 9 275 -32 16 7 49 15 23 27 16 29 9 15 2 10 61 0 0 15 39 57 23 38 31 8 275 -31 16 2 10 15 17 46 16 23 29 14 56 29 62 0 0 15 34 7 23 38 30 7 275 -30 15 56 20 15 11 56 16 17 40 14 50 38 63 0 0 15 28 7 23 38 29 6 275 -29 15 50 19 15 5 55 16 11 40 14 44 37 64 0 0 15 21 56 23 38 28 5 276 -28 15 44 9 14 59 44 16 5 30 14 38 25 65 0 0 15 15 35 23 38 27 4 276 -27 15 37 49 14 53 22 15 59 10 14 32 4 66 0 0 15 9 4 23 38 27 3 276 -26 15 31 18 14 46 51 15 52 40 14 25 32 67 0 0 15 2 24 23 38 26 2 276 -26 15 24 38 14 40 10 15 46 0 14 18 51 68 0 0 14 55 33 23 38 26 1 277 -25 15 17 48 14 33 19 15 39 10 14 11 59 69 0 0 14 48 33 23 38 26 1 277 -24 15 10 48 14 26 18 15 32 11 14 4 58 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Aug 7.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0564-01679-1 * constellation : Pegasus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 22 09 48.8797 DE: +06 42 20.769 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .025, .025 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.7 * B mag [mag]: 11.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (71) Niobe approx. diameter [km]: 81 approx. diameter ["]: .055 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.02200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Aug 06 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1054 number of rejected observations: 73 time covered by the observations: 1905 Jan 17 - 2012 Jul 10 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.016, 0.009, 46° remarks: * orbital elements for (71) Niobe : Mean anomaly = 105.14325248 deg Arg. of pericenter = 266.98514969 deg Long. of node = 316.06440660 deg Inclination = 23.26285043 deg Eccentricity = 0.17540277 Semimajor axis = 2.75429480 AU Perihelion dist = 2.27118387 AU Mag: H = 7.32, G = 0.40 Epoch of elements : MJD 56190.99100000 TDT (2012 Sep 20.991) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 20 71 Niobe 23h 47.0m UT 10.7 22 9 48.880 6 42 20.77TYC 0564-01679-1 11.0 11.6 81 6.6 2.022 -1.998 -4.48 -24.5671 6.707 -178.48 0.63 23.7837 -0.01451 0.10722 -6.84946 -1.02922 0.00254 -0.00066 2000 104.9295732012 920.00000266.985150316.064407 23.2628500.17540277 2.7542948 2.2711839 7.3 5.00.40 RATE 2.1561970 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.029 0.026 78 1.48 0.026 0 0-3-1 056146.0020120920_1679-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 06, 20:36 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org