IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (59) Elpis / TYC 0011-00903-1 event on 2012 Sep 18, 22:53 UT Visible from India Ocean, Antarctica Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 18 UT, the 202 km diameter asteroid (59) Elpis will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across India Ocean, Antarctica. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.3 mag to 11.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.4 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 18, 22:47 - 2012 Sep 18, 23:01 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456189.45411667 * magnitude of target star: 12.5 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.3 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 21.4 * Moon: 11 % sunlit, 156° distance * Sun: 165° distance * rough path description: India Ocean, Antarctica The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 307 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.18 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .040 +/- .032) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .040", .032", 83° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 9.4279 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 0011-00903-1 by 59 Elpis on 2012 Sep 18 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 80 45 29 -87 0 0 23 1 16 1 307 -3 48 24 21 ... .. .. 38 53 55 ... .. .. 65 20 35 -86 0 0 23 1 16 2 322 -4 43 48 18 99 10 1 36 47 3 ... .. .. 57 50 14 -85 0 0 23 1 15 3 330 -5 41 19 25 78 3 54 35 44 26 87 51 4 53 21 30 -84 0 0 23 1 13 5 334 -6 39 52 16 68 41 54 35 13 47 75 8 40 50 26 10 -83 0 0 23 1 11 6 337 -7 38 59 55 62 59 1 35 1 21 67 59 8 48 26 9 -82 0 0 23 1 9 7 339 -8 38 29 11 59 7 29 35 0 20 63 16 17 47 1 51 -81 0 0 23 1 7 8 341 -9 38 12 51 56 22 37 35 6 58 59 56 39 46 2 4 -80 0 0 23 1 5 9 341 -10 38 6 35 54 21 31 35 19 0 57 30 8 45 19 54 -79 0 0 23 1 2 10 342 -11 38 7 40 52 50 56 35 35 1 55 40 1 44 50 50 -78 0 0 23 0 59 11 343 -12 38 14 19 51 42 37 35 54 3 54 16 9 44 31 50 -77 0 0 23 0 55 12 343 -13 38 25 17 50 51 5 36 15 27 53 11 56 44 20 43 -76 0 0 23 0 51 13 343 -13 38 39 41 50 12 35 36 38 46 52 22 50 44 15 56 -75 0 0 23 0 47 14 343 -14 38 56 52 49 44 24 37 3 39 51 45 42 44 16 20 -74 0 0 23 0 43 15 343 -15 39 16 21 49 24 34 37 29 50 51 18 11 44 21 0 -73 0 0 23 0 38 15 343 -16 39 37 46 49 11 36 37 57 9 50 58 33 44 29 17 -72 0 0 23 0 33 16 343 -17 40 0 51 49 4 23 38 25 27 50 45 29 44 40 39 -71 0 0 23 0 28 17 342 -18 40 25 22 49 1 59 38 54 37 50 37 56 44 54 40 -70 0 0 23 0 22 18 342 -18 40 51 9 49 3 44 39 24 34 50 35 6 45 10 59 -69 0 0 23 0 17 19 342 -19 41 18 4 49 9 5 39 55 13 50 36 20 45 29 21 -68 0 0 23 0 10 20 341 -20 41 45 59 49 17 32 40 26 32 50 41 7 45 49 32 -67 0 0 23 0 4 21 341 -21 42 14 50 49 28 46 40 58 27 50 49 1 46 11 21 -66 0 0 22 59 57 22 340 -21 42 44 32 49 42 26 41 30 57 50 59 40 46 34 38 -65 0 0 22 59 51 23 340 -22 43 15 1 49 58 18 42 3 59 51 12 48 46 59 16 -64 0 0 22 59 43 24 339 -23 43 46 15 50 16 9 42 37 34 51 28 9 47 25 9 -63 0 0 22 59 36 25 339 -24 44 18 11 50 35 49 43 11 39 51 45 31 47 52 11 -62 0 0 22 59 28 25 338 -24 44 50 47 50 57 9 43 46 14 52 4 45 48 20 18 -61 0 0 22 59 20 26 337 -25 45 24 2 51 20 0 44 21 18 52 25 40 48 49 26 -60 0 0 22 59 12 27 337 -26 45 57 54 51 44 17 44 56 52 52 48 11 49 19 32 -59 0 0 22 59 3 28 336 -26 46 32 23 52 9 55 45 32 54 53 12 9 49 50 33 -58 0 0 22 58 54 29 335 -27 47 7 28 52 36 47 46 9 25 53 37 31 50 22 27 -57 0 0 22 58 45 30 334 -27 47 43 8 53 4 52 46 46 26 54 4 11 50 55 13 -56 0 0 22 58 36 30 334 -28 48 19 23 53 34 4 47 23 56 54 32 5 51 28 49 -55 0 0 22 58 26 31 333 -28 48 56 13 54 4 22 48 1 55 55 1 11 52 3 13 -54 0 0 22 58 17 32 332 -29 49 33 37 54 35 43 48 40 24 55 31 26 52 38 25 -53 0 0 22 58 6 33 331 -29 50 11 37 55 8 6 49 19 23 56 2 46 53 14 25 -52 0 0 22 57 56 33 330 -30 50 50 12 55 41 28 49 58 54 56 35 11 53 51 11 -51 0 0 22 57 46 34 329 -30 51 29 23 56 15 49 50 38 56 57 8 39 54 28 44 -50 0 0 22 57 35 35 328 -31 52 9 9 56 51 7 51 19 31 57 43 8 55 7 4 -49 0 0 22 57 24 35 327 -31 52 49 33 57 27 22 52 0 39 58 18 39 55 46 11 -48 0 0 22 57 12 36 326 -31 53 30 34 58 4 34 52 42 21 58 55 9 56 26 5 -47 0 0 22 57 1 36 325 -32 54 12 13 58 42 43 53 24 39 59 32 39 57 6 47 -46 0 0 22 56 49 37 324 -32 54 54 32 59 21 48 54 7 33 60 11 10 57 48 17 -45 0 0 22 56 37 38 322 -32 55 37 31 60 1 50 54 51 4 60 50 40 58 30 36 -44 0 0 22 56 25 38 321 -32 56 21 12 60 42 49 55 35 14 61 31 10 59 13 46 -43 0 0 22 56 13 39 320 -32 57 5 35 61 24 46 56 20 4 62 12 42 59 57 47 -42 0 0 22 56 0 39 319 -33 57 50 42 62 7 43 57 5 35 62 55 16 60 42 41 -41 0 0 22 55 47 39 317 -33 58 36 35 62 51 40 57 51 50 63 38 53 61 28 29 -40 0 0 22 55 34 40 316 -33 59 23 16 63 36 38 58 38 50 64 23 34 62 15 14 -39 0 0 22 55 21 40 315 -33 60 10 45 64 22 40 59 26 36 65 9 21 63 2 56 -38 0 0 22 55 8 40 313 -33 60 59 6 65 9 47 60 15 11 65 56 16 63 51 38 -37 0 0 22 54 54 41 312 -33 61 48 20 65 58 2 61 4 37 66 44 22 64 41 23 -36 0 0 22 54 40 41 310 -32 62 38 29 66 47 26 61 54 56 67 33 39 65 32 12 -35 0 0 22 54 27 41 309 -32 63 29 37 67 38 2 62 46 11 68 24 12 66 24 10 -34 0 0 22 54 12 41 307 -32 64 21 45 68 29 54 63 38 25 69 16 3 67 17 18 -33 0 0 22 53 58 41 306 -32 65 14 57 69 23 4 64 31 40 70 9 16 68 11 41 -32 0 0 22 53 44 41 304 -31 66 9 16 70 17 37 65 25 59 71 3 55 69 7 22 -31 0 0 22 53 29 41 303 -31 67 4 46 71 13 37 66 21 26 72 0 3 70 4 25 -30 0 0 22 53 14 41 301 -31 68 1 30 72 11 8 67 18 5 72 57 47 71 2 56 -29 0 0 22 52 59 41 300 -30 68 59 34 73 10 16 68 16 1 73 57 11 72 3 0 -28 0 0 22 52 44 40 298 -30 69 59 0 74 11 7 69 15 17 74 58 22 73 4 42 -27 0 0 22 52 29 40 297 -29 70 59 56 75 13 47 70 15 59 76 1 27 74 8 9 -26 0 0 22 52 13 40 295 -29 72 2 27 76 18 24 71 18 12 77 6 33 75 13 28 -25 0 0 22 51 58 39 294 -28 73 6 39 77 25 7 72 22 2 78 13 51 76 20 49 -24 0 0 22 51 42 39 292 -27 74 12 39 78 34 6 73 27 38 79 23 30 77 30 20 -23 0 0 22 51 26 38 291 -26 75 20 36 79 45 32 74 35 5 80 35 43 78 42 13 -22 0 0 22 51 10 38 289 -25 76 30 40 80 59 38 75 44 34 81 50 44 79 56 40 -21 0 0 22 50 54 37 288 -25 77 43 0 82 16 39 76 56 15 83 8 50 81 13 56 -20 0 0 22 50 38 36 286 -24 78 57 50 83 36 55 78 10 18 84 30 21 82 34 19 -19 0 0 22 50 22 35 285 -22 80 15 23 85 0 48 79 26 58 85 55 41 83 58 9 -18 0 0 22 50 5 34 284 -21 81 35 56 86 28 42 80 46 29 87 25 19 85 25 51 -17 0 0 22 49 49 33 283 -20 82 59 49 88 1 13 82 9 10 88 59 53 86 57 55 -16 0 0 22 49 32 32 281 -19 84 27 25 89 39 0 83 35 23 90 40 7 88 35 1 -15 0 0 22 49 15 31 280 -17 85 59 13 91 22 57 85 5 34 92 27 4 90 17 55 -14 0 0 22 48 58 29 279 -16 87 35 48 93 14 13 86 40 15 94 22 5 92 7 42 -13 0 0 22 48 41 28 278 -14 89 17 56 95 14 26 88 20 5 96 27 4 94 5 45 -12 0 0 22 48 24 26 277 -12 91 6 33 97 25 53 90 5 57 98 44 52 96 14 6 -11 0 0 22 48 7 24 276 -10 93 2 57 99 52 6 91 58 56 101 20 3 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 97 0 0 -10 39 51 22 48 1 23 276 -10 - 9 11 15 -12 11 21 - 8 40 0 -12 45 5 98 0 0 -10 14 32 22 47 54 23 275 -9 - 8 46 32 -11 45 22 - 8 15 29 -12 18 50 99 0 0 - 9 50 21 22 47 47 22 275 -8 - 8 22 56 -11 20 34 - 7 52 5 -11 53 48 100 0 0 - 9 27 20 22 47 40 21 275 -7 - 8 0 26 -10 56 58 - 7 29 46 -11 29 58 101 0 0 - 9 5 27 22 47 34 20 274 -6 - 7 39 3 -10 34 31 - 7 8 33 -11 7 18 102 0 0 - 8 44 41 22 47 28 19 274 -5 - 7 18 46 -10 13 14 - 6 48 26 -10 45 50 103 0 0 - 8 25 2 22 47 22 18 274 -4 - 6 59 34 - 9 53 7 - 6 29 23 -10 25 31 104 0 0 - 8 6 31 22 47 17 17 273 -3 - 6 41 27 - 9 34 9 - 6 11 24 -10 6 22 105 0 0 - 7 49 6 22 47 11 16 273 -2 - 6 24 25 - 9 16 19 - 5 54 30 - 9 48 23 106 0 0 - 7 32 47 22 47 7 15 273 -1 - 6 8 27 - 8 59 37 - 5 38 39 - 9 31 32 Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs Prediction of 2012 Sep 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 0011-00903-1 * constellation : Cetus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 00 44 38.9493 DE: +00 47 41.390 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .029, .029 ) * V mag [mag]: 12.5 * B mag [mag]: 12.6 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (59) Elpis approx. diameter [km]: 202 approx. diameter ["]: .196 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.42000 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Sep 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1126 number of rejected observations: 115 time covered by the observations: 1900 Sep 20 - 2012 Sep 01 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.028, 0.013, 75° remarks: * orbital elements for (59) Elpis : Mean anomaly = 346.41795745 deg Arg. of pericenter = 211.91559653 deg Long. of node = 170.14640191 deg Inclination = 8.63393048 deg Eccentricity = 0.11754584 Semimajor axis = 2.71275372 AU Perihelion dist = 2.39388081 AU Mag: H = 7.93, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56188.95400000 TDT (2012 Sep 18.954) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 18 59 Elpis 22h 53.9m UT 12.5 0 44 38.949 0 47 41.39TYC 0011-00903-1 12.6 11.1 202 21.4 1.420 -1.600 -22.60 29.4221 0.800 -165.02 1.42 22.8988 0.51602 -0.54909 -3.87350 -3.64867 -0.00138 -0.00021 2000 344.4427822012 910.00000211.915597170.146402 8.6339300.11754584 2.7127537 2.3938808 7.9 5.00.15 RATE 2.2059140 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.040 0.032 83 1.18 0.035 0 0 3 0 056178.0020120918_0903-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Sep 07, 23:01 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org