IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (301) Bavaria / TYC 1323-01008-1 event on 2012 Sep 14, 08:38 UT Visible from Canada, W USA Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 14 UT, the 52 km diameter asteroid (301) Bavaria will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Canada, W USA. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.4 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.3 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 58 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 14, 08:35 - 2012 Sep 14, 08:37 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456184.86035417 * magnitude of target star: 10.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 5.4 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 2.3 * Moon: 4 % sunlit, 54° distance * Sun: 77° distance * rough path description: Canada, W USA The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 64 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.08 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .030 +/- .026) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .030", .026", 90° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 22.2956 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 1323-01008-1 by 301 Bavaria on 2012 Sep 14 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -132 0 0 38 13 46 8 35 2 0 66 -49 37 54 49 38 32 48 .. .. .. 39 14 12 -131 0 0 38 35 8 8 35 2 1 67 -48 38 16 10 38 54 9 .. .. .. 39 35 33 -130 0 0 38 56 22 8 35 2 2 67 -48 38 37 25 39 15 24 .. .. .. 39 56 47 -129 0 0 39 17 29 8 35 2 3 68 -48 38 58 32 39 36 30 .. .. .. 40 17 53 -128 0 0 39 38 28 8 35 3 4 68 -47 39 19 32 39 57 29 .. .. .. 40 38 51 -127 0 0 39 59 19 8 35 3 5 69 -47 39 40 23 40 18 20 38 59 46 40 59 41 -126 0 0 40 20 2 8 35 3 5 70 -46 40 1 6 40 39 2 39 20 30 41 20 22 -125 0 0 40 40 35 8 35 4 6 70 -46 40 21 40 40 59 35 39 41 5 41 40 54 -124 0 0 41 0 59 8 35 5 7 71 -46 40 42 5 41 19 58 40 1 31 42 1 16 -123 0 0 41 21 13 8 35 5 8 72 -45 41 2 20 41 40 12 40 21 47 42 21 27 -122 0 0 41 41 17 8 35 6 9 72 -45 41 22 24 42 0 14 40 41 53 42 41 29 -121 0 0 42 1 10 8 35 7 9 73 -44 41 42 18 42 20 7 41 1 49 43 1 19 -120 0 0 42 20 52 8 35 8 10 74 -44 42 2 1 42 39 48 41 21 33 43 20 58 -119 0 0 42 40 22 8 35 9 11 74 -43 42 21 32 42 59 17 41 41 7 43 40 25 -118 0 0 42 59 41 8 35 10 12 75 -43 42 40 52 43 18 35 42 0 28 43 59 41 -117 0 0 43 18 47 8 35 11 13 76 -42 42 59 59 43 37 40 42 19 38 44 18 44 -116 0 0 43 37 41 8 35 12 13 77 -42 43 18 55 43 56 33 42 38 36 44 37 34 -115 0 0 43 56 23 8 35 13 14 77 -41 43 37 37 44 15 13 42 57 21 44 56 12 -114 0 0 44 14 51 8 35 14 15 78 -41 43 56 7 44 33 40 43 15 53 45 14 36 -113 0 0 44 33 6 8 35 15 16 79 -40 44 14 23 44 51 54 43 34 13 45 32 47 -112 0 0 44 51 8 8 35 17 17 80 -39 44 32 26 45 9 54 43 52 18 45 50 44 -111 0 0 45 8 55 8 35 18 17 80 -39 44 50 15 45 27 41 44 10 10 46 8 27 -110 0 0 45 26 29 8 35 19 18 81 -38 45 7 50 45 45 13 44 27 49 46 25 56 -109 0 0 45 43 48 8 35 21 19 82 -38 45 25 11 46 2 30 44 45 13 46 43 10 -108 0 0 46 0 53 8 35 22 20 83 -37 45 42 17 46 19 34 45 2 22 47 0 10 -107 0 0 46 17 44 8 35 24 20 83 -37 45 59 9 46 36 22 45 19 17 47 16 55 -106 0 0 46 34 19 8 35 26 21 84 -36 46 15 46 46 52 56 45 35 58 47 33 25 -105 0 0 46 50 39 8 35 27 22 85 -35 46 32 8 47 9 15 45 52 23 47 49 40 -104 0 0 47 6 44 8 35 29 22 86 -35 46 48 15 47 25 18 46 8 34 48 5 40 -103 0 0 47 22 34 8 35 31 23 87 -34 47 4 6 47 41 6 46 24 29 48 21 24 -102 0 0 47 38 8 8 35 33 24 88 -34 47 19 42 47 56 39 46 40 9 48 36 52 -101 0 0 47 53 27 8 35 34 24 88 -33 47 35 3 48 11 55 46 55 33 48 52 5 -100 0 0 48 8 30 8 35 36 25 89 -32 47 50 8 48 26 57 47 10 41 49 7 2 - 99 0 0 48 23 17 8 35 38 26 90 -32 48 4 56 48 41 42 47 25 34 49 21 44 - 98 0 0 48 37 48 8 35 40 26 91 -31 48 19 30 48 56 11 47 40 11 49 36 9 - 97 0 0 48 52 3 8 35 42 27 92 -31 48 33 47 49 10 24 47 54 32 49 50 18 - 96 0 0 49 6 2 8 35 44 28 93 -30 48 47 48 49 24 22 48 8 37 50 4 11 - 95 0 0 49 19 45 8 35 46 28 94 -29 49 1 32 49 38 3 48 22 26 50 17 48 - 94 0 0 49 33 12 8 35 48 29 95 -29 49 15 1 49 51 28 48 35 58 50 31 9 - 93 0 0 49 46 23 8 35 50 30 95 -28 49 28 14 50 4 36 48 49 15 50 44 13 - 92 0 0 49 59 17 8 35 52 30 96 -28 49 41 10 50 17 29 49 2 15 50 57 1 - 91 0 0 50 11 55 8 35 54 31 97 -27 49 53 50 50 30 5 49 14 59 51 9 33 - 90 0 0 50 24 17 8 35 57 32 98 -26 50 6 13 50 42 24 49 27 26 51 21 49 - 89 0 0 50 36 22 8 35 59 32 99 -26 50 18 20 50 54 28 49 39 38 51 33 48 - 88 0 0 50 48 11 8 36 1 33 100 -25 50 30 11 51 6 15 49 51 32 51 45 31 - 87 0 0 50 59 43 8 36 3 33 101 -25 50 41 45 51 17 45 50 3 11 51 56 57 - 86 0 0 51 10 59 8 36 5 34 102 -24 50 53 3 51 29 0 50 14 32 52 8 7 - 85 0 0 51 21 59 8 36 8 35 103 -23 51 4 5 51 39 57 50 25 38 52 19 1 - 84 0 0 51 32 42 8 36 10 35 104 -23 51 14 50 51 50 39 50 36 27 52 29 38 - 83 0 0 51 43 9 8 36 12 36 105 -22 51 25 19 52 1 4 50 47 0 52 40 0 - 82 0 0 51 53 20 8 36 15 36 106 -22 51 35 31 52 11 13 50 57 16 52 50 4 - 81 0 0 52 3 14 8 36 17 37 107 -21 51 45 27 52 21 5 51 7 16 52 59 53 - 80 0 0 52 12 52 8 36 19 37 108 -20 51 55 7 52 30 42 51 16 59 53 9 25 - 79 0 0 52 22 14 8 36 22 38 109 -20 52 4 30 52 40 2 51 26 26 53 18 41 - 78 0 0 52 31 19 8 36 24 38 110 -19 52 13 38 52 49 5 51 35 37 53 27 41 - 77 0 0 52 40 9 8 36 27 39 112 -19 52 22 28 52 57 53 51 44 31 53 36 25 - 76 0 0 52 48 42 8 36 29 39 113 -18 52 31 3 53 6 24 51 53 10 53 44 53 - 75 0 0 52 56 59 8 36 31 40 114 -17 52 39 22 53 14 40 52 1 31 53 53 5 - 74 0 0 53 5 0 8 36 34 40 115 -17 52 47 24 53 22 39 52 9 37 54 1 1 - 73 0 0 53 12 44 8 36 36 41 116 -16 52 55 10 53 30 22 52 17 27 54 8 41 - 72 0 0 53 20 13 8 36 39 41 117 -16 53 2 41 53 37 49 52 25 0 54 16 5 - 71 0 0 53 27 26 8 36 41 42 118 -15 53 9 55 53 45 1 52 32 17 54 23 13 - 70 0 0 53 34 23 8 36 44 42 119 -14 53 16 53 53 51 56 52 39 19 54 30 5 - 69 0 0 53 41 4 8 36 46 43 121 -14 53 23 35 53 58 36 52 46 4 54 36 41 - 68 0 0 53 47 29 8 36 49 43 122 -13 53 30 2 54 4 59 52 52 33 54 43 2 - 67 0 0 53 53 38 8 36 52 44 123 -13 53 36 12 54 11 7 52 58 46 54 49 7 - 66 0 0 53 59 31 8 36 54 44 124 -12 53 42 7 54 16 59 53 4 44 54 54 57 - 65 0 0 54 5 9 8 36 57 45 126 -12 53 47 46 54 22 36 53 10 25 55 0 30 - 64 0 0 54 10 31 8 36 59 45 127 -11 53 53 9 54 27 57 53 15 51 55 5 49 - 63 0 0 54 15 37 8 37 2 45 128 -10 53 58 16 54 33 2 53 21 0 55 10 52 - 62 0 0 54 20 28 8 37 4 46 129 -10 54 3 8 54 37 52 53 25 55 55 15 39 - 61 0 0 54 25 3 8 37 7 46 131 -9 54 7 44 54 42 26 53 30 33 55 20 11 - 60 0 0 54 29 23 8 37 10 47 132 -9 54 12 5 54 46 45 53 34 55 55 24 27 - 59 0 0 54 33 27 8 37 12 47 133 -8 54 16 10 54 50 48 53 39 2 55 28 29 - 58 0 0 54 37 16 8 37 15 47 134 -7 54 20 0 54 54 36 53 42 54 55 32 15 - 57 0 0 54 40 49 8 37 18 48 136 -7 54 23 34 54 58 8 53 46 29 55 35 45 - 56 0 0 54 44 7 8 37 20 48 137 -6 54 26 52 55 1 25 53 49 49 55 39 1 - 55 0 0 54 47 9 8 37 23 48 138 -6 54 29 55 55 4 27 53 52 54 55 42 1 - 54 0 0 54 49 56 8 37 26 49 140 -5 54 32 43 55 7 13 53 55 43 55 44 46 - 53 0 0 54 52 28 8 37 28 49 141 -5 54 35 15 55 9 44 53 58 17 55 47 16 - 52 0 0 54 54 44 8 37 31 49 143 -4 54 37 32 55 12 0 54 0 35 55 49 30 - 51 0 0 54 56 45 8 37 34 50 144 -3 54 39 34 55 14 1 54 2 37 55 51 30 - 50 0 0 54 58 31 8 37 37 50 145 -3 54 41 20 55 15 46 54 4 24 55 53 14 - 49 0 0 55 0 2 8 37 39 50 147 -2 54 42 51 55 17 16 54 5 56 55 54 44 - 48 0 0 55 1 17 8 37 42 51 148 -2 54 44 6 55 18 31 54 7 12 55 55 58 - 47 0 0 55 2 17 8 37 45 51 150 -1 54 45 7 55 19 31 54 8 13 55 56 58 - 46 0 0 55 3 2 8 37 48 51 151 0 54 45 52 55 20 16 54 8 58 55 57 42 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 22.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 1323-01008-1 * constellation : Gemini * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 06 21 56.0210 DE: +18 55 58.856 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .025, .024 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.4 * B mag [mag]: 10.4 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 95.6734844465 DE(deg): 18.9253332360 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000068102505750 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (301) Bavaria approx. diameter [km]: 52 approx. diameter ["]: .024 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.96400 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 21 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1301 number of rejected observations: 87 time covered by the observations: 1903 Sep 30 - 2012 Feb 12 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.017, 0.010, 89° remarks: * orbital elements for (301) Bavaria : Mean anomaly = 166.50372225 deg Arg. of pericenter = 124.81246114 deg Long. of node = 142.43481406 deg Inclination = 4.88956460 deg Eccentricity = 0.06469600 Semimajor axis = 2.72826221 AU Perihelion dist = 2.55175457 AU Mag: H = 10.22, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56184.36000000 TDT (2012 Sep 14.360) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 14 301 Bavaria 8h 38.9m UT 10.4 6 21 56.021 18 55 58.86TYC 1323-01008-1 10.5 15.8 52 2.3 2.964 2.620 -3.46 -27.9747 18.934 49.14 3.20 8.6485 0.05098 0.57359 12.53003 -1.16683 -0.00558 0.00011 2000 165.5501332012 910.00000124.812461142.434814 4.8895650.06469600 2.7282622 2.551754610.1 5.00.15 RATE 2.1871310 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.030 0.026 90 2.08 0.026 0 0 0-4 056130.0020120914_1008-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 22, 03:47 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org