IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (412) Elisabetha / UCAC2 27310397 event on 2012 Sep 01, 19:00 UT Visible from S Africa Summary ------- On 2012 Sep 01 UT, the 101 km diameter asteroid (412) Elisabetha will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across S Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.8 mag to 14.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.0 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 75 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Sep 01, 19:01 - 2012 Sep 01, 19:04 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456172.29182917 * magnitude of target star: 11.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 2.8 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.0 * Moon: 98 % sunlit, 117° distance * Sun: 77° distance * rough path description: S Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 102 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.75 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 3.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .041 +/- .038) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .041", .038", 93° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 25.2380 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 27310397 by 412 Elisabetha on 2012 Sep 1 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 16 0 0 -10 35 38 19 1 8 75 260 -1 -11 5 59 -10 5 15 -11 51 25 - 9 19 34 - 15 0 0 -11 2 3 19 1 12 74 262 -2 -11 32 18 -10 31 45 -12 17 37 - 9 46 12 - 14 0 0 -11 27 58 19 1 17 73 263 -3 -11 58 8 -10 57 45 -12 43 19 -10 12 20 - 13 0 0 -11 53 23 19 1 22 72 265 -4 -12 23 29 -11 23 16 -13 8 32 -10 37 58 - 12 0 0 -12 18 19 19 1 26 71 266 -5 -12 48 19 -11 48 16 -13 33 14 -11 3 6 - 11 0 0 -12 42 43 19 1 31 70 267 -6 -13 12 38 -12 12 46 -13 57 26 -11 27 44 - 10 0 0 -13 6 38 19 1 35 69 268 -7 -13 36 27 -12 36 45 -14 21 8 -11 51 51 - 9 0 0 -13 30 1 19 1 40 68 269 -8 -13 59 46 -13 0 13 -14 44 19 -12 15 27 - 8 0 0 -13 52 53 19 1 44 67 270 -9 -14 22 33 -13 23 11 -15 6 58 -12 38 32 - 7 0 0 -14 15 14 19 1 48 66 270 -10 -14 44 49 -13 45 37 -15 29 7 -13 1 5 - 6 0 0 -14 37 4 19 1 53 65 271 -11 -15 6 34 -14 7 31 -15 50 45 -13 23 7 - 5 0 0 -14 58 22 19 1 57 64 271 -12 -15 27 47 -14 28 54 -16 11 51 -13 44 37 - 4 0 0 -15 19 8 19 2 1 63 272 -13 -15 48 29 -14 49 45 -16 32 25 -14 5 36 - 3 0 0 -15 39 23 19 2 5 62 272 -14 -16 8 39 -15 10 5 -16 52 28 -14 26 3 - 2 0 0 -15 59 6 19 2 9 61 272 -15 -16 28 18 -15 29 53 -17 12 0 -14 45 57 - 1 0 0 -16 18 18 19 2 13 60 272 -16 -16 47 24 -15 49 8 -17 31 0 -15 5 20 0 0 0 -16 36 57 19 2 17 59 273 -17 -17 5 59 -16 7 52 -17 49 28 -15 24 10 1 0 0 -16 55 4 19 2 21 58 273 -18 -17 24 2 -16 26 4 -18 7 24 -15 42 29 2 0 0 -17 12 40 19 2 25 57 273 -19 -17 41 33 -16 43 44 -18 24 49 -16 0 15 3 0 0 -17 29 43 19 2 29 56 273 -20 -17 58 32 -17 0 51 -18 41 42 -16 17 29 4 0 0 -17 46 15 19 2 32 55 273 -21 -18 15 0 -17 17 27 -18 58 4 -16 34 11 5 0 0 -18 2 14 19 2 36 54 273 -22 -18 30 55 -17 33 31 -19 13 53 -16 50 20 6 0 0 -18 17 42 19 2 40 53 273 -23 -18 46 19 -17 49 2 -19 29 11 -17 5 58 7 0 0 -18 32 37 19 2 43 53 273 -24 -19 1 11 -18 4 2 -19 43 57 -17 21 3 8 0 0 -18 47 1 19 2 47 52 273 -25 -19 15 31 -18 18 29 -19 58 12 -17 35 36 9 0 0 -19 0 53 19 2 50 51 273 -26 -19 29 20 -18 32 25 -20 11 55 -17 49 37 10 0 0 -19 14 13 19 2 53 50 273 -27 -19 42 36 -18 45 48 -20 25 7 -18 3 6 11 0 0 -19 27 2 19 2 57 49 272 -28 -19 55 21 -18 58 40 -20 37 47 -18 16 3 12 0 0 -19 39 18 19 3 0 48 272 -29 -20 7 35 -19 11 0 -20 49 55 -18 28 27 13 0 0 -19 51 4 19 3 3 47 272 -30 -20 19 17 -19 22 48 -21 1 33 -18 40 20 14 0 0 -20 2 17 19 3 6 46 272 -31 -20 30 27 -19 34 5 -21 12 39 -18 51 41 15 0 0 -20 12 59 19 3 9 45 272 -32 -20 41 7 -19 44 49 -21 23 14 -19 2 30 16 0 0 -20 23 10 19 3 12 44 272 -33 -20 51 14 -19 55 3 -21 33 18 -19 12 48 17 0 0 -20 32 49 19 3 15 43 271 -33 -21 0 51 -20 4 44 -21 42 50 -19 22 33 18 0 0 -20 41 57 19 3 18 42 271 -34 -21 9 56 -20 13 55 -21 51 52 -19 31 47 19 0 0 -20 50 33 19 3 21 41 271 -35 -21 18 31 -20 22 33 -22 0 23 -19 40 30 20 0 0 -20 58 38 19 3 24 40 271 -36 -21 26 34 -20 30 41 -22 8 23 -19 48 41 21 0 0 -21 6 13 19 3 26 39 270 -37 -21 34 6 -20 38 17 -22 15 52 -19 56 20 22 0 0 -21 13 16 19 3 29 38 270 -38 -21 41 7 -20 45 22 -22 22 50 -20 3 28 23 0 0 -21 19 48 19 3 32 37 270 -39 -21 47 37 -20 51 56 -22 29 18 -20 10 5 24 0 0 -21 25 49 19 3 34 36 269 -40 -21 53 37 -20 57 59 -22 35 15 -20 16 10 25 0 0 -21 31 19 19 3 37 35 269 -41 -21 59 6 -21 3 31 -22 40 41 -20 21 44 26 0 0 -21 36 19 19 3 39 34 269 -42 -22 4 4 -21 8 32 -22 45 38 -20 26 47 27 0 0 -21 40 48 19 3 41 33 269 -43 -22 8 31 -21 13 2 -22 50 3 -20 31 19 28 0 0 -21 44 46 19 3 44 33 268 -44 -22 12 28 -21 17 1 -22 53 58 -20 35 20 29 0 0 -21 48 13 19 3 46 32 268 -45 -22 15 54 -21 20 29 -22 57 23 -20 38 49 30 0 0 -21 51 10 19 3 48 31 268 -45 -22 18 50 -21 23 27 -23 0 18 -20 41 48 31 0 0 -21 53 36 19 3 50 30 267 -46 -22 21 16 -21 25 53 -23 2 42 -20 44 16 32 0 0 -21 55 31 19 3 52 29 267 -47 -22 23 11 -21 27 49 -23 4 36 -20 46 13 33 0 0 -21 56 56 19 3 54 28 267 -48 -22 24 35 -21 29 15 -23 6 0 -20 47 39 34 0 0 -21 57 51 19 3 56 27 266 -49 -22 25 29 -21 30 10 -23 6 54 -20 48 34 35 0 0 -21 58 15 19 3 58 26 266 -50 -22 25 53 -21 30 34 -23 7 18 -20 48 59 36 0 0 -21 58 8 19 4 0 25 266 -51 -22 25 47 -21 30 28 -23 7 11 -20 48 52 37 0 0 -21 57 32 19 4 1 24 265 -52 -22 25 10 -21 29 51 -23 6 35 -20 48 15 38 0 0 -21 56 24 19 4 3 23 265 -53 -22 24 3 -21 28 43 -23 5 28 -20 47 7 39 0 0 -21 54 47 19 4 5 22 265 -54 -22 22 26 -21 27 5 -23 3 52 -20 45 29 40 0 0 -21 52 39 19 4 6 21 264 -54 -22 20 19 -21 24 57 -23 1 45 -20 43 20 41 0 0 -21 50 1 19 4 8 20 264 -55 -22 17 41 -21 22 18 -22 59 9 -20 40 40 42 0 0 -21 46 52 19 4 9 19 264 -56 -22 14 34 -21 19 9 -22 56 2 -20 37 29 43 0 0 -21 43 13 19 4 11 19 263 -57 -22 10 56 -21 15 29 -22 52 26 -20 33 48 44 0 0 -21 39 4 19 4 12 18 263 -58 -22 6 48 -21 11 18 -22 48 19 -20 29 36 45 0 0 -21 34 24 19 4 13 17 262 -59 -22 2 9 -21 6 38 -22 43 43 -20 24 53 46 0 0 -21 29 14 19 4 14 16 262 -60 -21 57 1 -21 1 26 -22 38 36 -20 19 40 47 0 0 -21 23 34 19 4 15 15 262 -61 -21 51 22 -20 55 45 -22 33 0 -20 13 56 48 0 0 -21 17 24 19 4 16 14 261 -62 -21 45 13 -20 49 32 -22 26 53 -20 7 41 49 0 0 -21 10 43 19 4 17 13 261 -63 -21 38 33 -20 42 50 -22 20 16 -20 0 56 50 0 0 -21 3 31 19 4 18 12 261 -63 -21 31 24 -20 35 36 -22 13 9 -19 53 40 51 0 0 -20 55 49 19 4 19 11 260 -64 -21 23 44 -20 27 53 -22 5 33 -19 45 53 52 0 0 -20 47 37 19 4 20 10 260 -65 -21 15 34 -20 19 38 -21 57 26 -19 37 36 53 0 0 -20 38 55 19 4 21 9 260 -66 -21 6 54 -20 10 53 -21 48 49 -19 28 47 54 0 0 -20 29 42 19 4 21 8 259 -67 -20 57 43 -20 1 38 -21 39 41 -19 19 29 55 0 0 -20 19 58 19 4 22 7 259 -68 -20 48 2 -19 51 52 -21 30 4 -19 9 39 56 0 0 -20 9 44 19 4 22 6 259 -69 -20 37 51 -19 41 36 -21 19 57 -18 59 18 57 0 0 -19 59 0 19 4 23 5 258 -70 -20 27 9 -19 30 49 -21 9 19 -18 48 27 58 0 0 -19 47 45 19 4 23 4 258 -71 -20 15 57 -19 19 31 -20 58 11 -18 37 5 59 0 0 -19 36 0 19 4 23 3 258 -71 -20 4 14 -19 7 43 -20 46 33 -18 25 13 60 0 0 -19 23 44 19 4 24 2 257 -72 -19 52 2 -18 55 24 -20 34 25 -18 12 49 61 0 0 -19 10 57 19 4 24 1 257 -73 -19 39 18 -18 42 34 -20 21 46 -17 59 55 62 0 0 -18 57 41 19 4 24 0 257 -74 -19 26 5 -18 29 14 -20 8 37 -17 46 30 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 27310397 * constellation : Libra * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 15 41 10.9609 DE: -12 47 05.131 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .038, .037 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.6 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (412) Elisabetha approx. diameter [km]: 101 approx. diameter ["]: .051 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.74200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 08 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1050 number of rejected observations: 77 time covered by the observations: 1927 Dec 30 - 2012 Jun 09 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.014, 0.008, 114° remarks: * orbital elements for (412) Elisabetha : Mean anomaly = 52.37461247 deg Arg. of pericenter = 93.84359921 deg Long. of node = 106.52571382 deg Inclination = 13.77563932 deg Eccentricity = 0.04345740 Semimajor axis = 2.76317896 AU Perihelion dist = 2.64309839 AU Mag: H = 9.09, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56171.79200000 TDT (2012 Sep 01.792) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Sep 1 412 Elisabetha 19h 0.2m UT 11.6 15 41 10.961-12 47 5.13UCAC2 27310397 0.0 14.4 101 4.0 2.742 2.763 -21.29 -31.1054 -12.779 -105.11 7.92 19.0039 0.06924 0.13142 12.60280 -6.64005 0.00531 -0.00109 2000 51.9900832012 831.00000 93.843599106.525714 13.7756390.04345740 2.7631790 2.6430984 9.0 5.00.15 RATE 2.1458070 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.041 0.038 93 1.75 0.038 0 0-1-1 056116.0020120901_310397 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 08, 00:25 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org