IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (2415) Ganesa / TYC 6352-00911-1 event on 2012 Aug 16, 21:55 UT Visible from Russia, Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Aug 16 UT, the 16 km diameter asteroid (2415) Ganesa will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across Russia, Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.2 mag to 15.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.7 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 16 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Aug 16, 21:50 - 2012 Aug 16, 22:00 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456156.41355833 * magnitude of target star: 11.4 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 1.7 * Moon: 1 % sunlit, 172° distance * Sun: 165° distance * rough path description: Russia, Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 38 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 4.27 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 8.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .073 +/- .060) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .073", .060", 79° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 9.5774 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 6352-00911-1 by 2415 Ganesa on 2012 Aug 16 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude 38 30 21 68 0 0 21 50 59 1 198 -9 38 0 19 39 0 14 33 37 11 ... .. .. 37 35 2 67 0 0 21 51 0 2 197 -10 37 5 57 38 3 58 32 51 6 ... .. .. 36 37 19 66 0 0 21 51 1 3 196 -11 36 9 4 37 5 25 32 1 34 ... .. .. 35 37 18 65 0 0 21 51 3 4 195 -12 35 9 48 36 4 40 31 8 46 ... .. .. 34 35 2 64 0 0 21 51 5 5 194 -13 34 8 11 35 1 44 30 12 49 ... .. .. 33 30 31 63 0 0 21 51 8 6 193 -14 33 4 14 33 56 39 29 13 49 ... .. .. 32 23 45 62 0 0 21 51 11 7 192 -15 31 57 58 32 49 23 28 11 50 ... .. .. 31 14 42 61 0 0 21 51 16 8 191 -16 30 49 21 31 39 54 27 6 51 35 10 2 30 3 19 60 0 0 21 51 20 9 190 -17 29 38 20 30 28 9 25 58 52 33 55 7 28 49 31 59 0 0 21 51 26 10 189 -18 28 24 51 29 14 4 24 47 48 32 38 22 27 33 13 58 0 0 21 51 32 11 188 -19 27 8 47 27 57 31 23 33 35 31 19 40 26 14 17 57 0 0 21 51 39 13 186 -20 25 50 0 26 38 24 22 16 4 29 58 54 24 52 33 56 0 0 21 51 47 14 185 -20 24 28 23 25 16 33 20 55 5 28 35 55 23 27 49 55 0 0 21 51 56 15 184 -21 23 3 42 23 51 48 19 30 25 27 10 31 21 59 53 54 0 0 21 52 6 16 182 -22 21 35 44 22 23 53 18 1 46 25 42 31 20 28 28 53 0 0 21 52 16 17 181 -23 20 4 11 20 52 33 16 28 49 24 11 41 18 53 13 52 0 0 21 52 27 18 179 -24 18 28 45 19 17 29 14 51 5 22 37 44 17 13 44 51 0 0 21 52 40 19 178 -24 16 48 58 17 38 17 13 8 3 21 0 21 15 29 31 50 0 0 21 52 53 20 176 -25 15 4 21 15 54 28 11 18 59 19 19 9 13 39 57 49 0 0 21 53 8 21 174 -26 13 14 15 14 5 25 9 22 59 17 33 39 11 44 14 48 0 0 21 53 24 21 172 -26 11 17 49 12 10 23 7 18 50 15 43 19 9 41 22 47 0 0 21 53 41 22 170 -26 9 14 1 10 8 23 5 4 51 13 47 26 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 8 0 0 46 13 21 21 53 56 23 169 -27 46 25 59 46 0 50 48 19 25 44 18 31 7 0 0 45 46 56 21 54 5 23 168 -27 45 59 24 45 34 34 47 51 16 43 53 24 6 0 0 45 21 23 21 54 14 23 167 -27 45 33 43 45 9 11 47 24 7 43 29 6 5 0 0 44 56 44 21 54 23 24 166 -27 45 8 54 44 44 39 46 57 55 43 5 36 4 0 0 44 32 56 21 54 32 24 165 -27 44 44 59 44 20 59 46 32 42 42 42 55 3 0 0 44 10 1 21 54 40 24 164 -27 44 21 56 43 58 11 46 8 25 42 21 3 2 0 0 43 47 57 21 54 49 24 163 -27 43 59 45 43 36 14 45 45 5 41 59 58 1 0 0 43 26 45 21 54 58 24 162 -27 43 38 26 43 15 9 45 22 42 41 39 42 0 0 0 43 6 24 21 55 7 24 161 -26 43 17 59 42 54 54 45 1 13 41 20 14 - 1 0 0 42 46 54 21 55 16 24 160 -26 42 58 23 42 35 30 44 40 40 41 1 34 - 2 0 0 42 28 15 21 55 25 24 159 -26 42 39 39 42 16 56 44 21 2 40 43 42 - 3 0 0 42 10 26 21 55 34 24 158 -26 42 21 45 41 59 13 44 2 19 40 26 38 - 4 0 0 41 53 29 21 55 43 24 157 -26 42 4 43 41 42 20 43 44 29 40 10 21 - 5 0 0 41 37 21 21 55 52 24 156 -25 41 48 31 41 26 17 43 27 33 39 54 53 - 6 0 0 41 22 4 21 56 1 24 155 -25 41 33 9 41 11 4 43 11 31 39 40 12 - 7 0 0 41 7 37 21 56 10 24 154 -25 41 18 38 40 56 41 42 56 22 39 26 19 - 8 0 0 40 54 0 21 56 19 24 153 -24 41 4 58 40 43 7 42 42 6 39 13 13 - 9 0 0 40 41 13 21 56 27 24 152 -24 40 52 7 40 30 24 42 28 43 39 0 55 - 10 0 0 40 29 16 21 56 36 24 151 -24 40 40 7 40 18 30 42 16 13 38 49 25 - 11 0 0 40 18 9 21 56 45 24 150 -23 40 28 57 40 7 25 42 4 35 38 38 42 - 12 0 0 40 7 51 21 56 53 23 149 -23 40 18 37 39 57 10 41 53 50 38 28 47 - 13 0 0 39 58 23 21 57 1 23 148 -22 40 9 6 39 47 44 41 43 57 38 19 39 - 14 0 0 39 49 45 21 57 10 23 147 -22 40 0 26 39 39 8 41 34 56 38 11 19 - 15 0 0 39 41 56 21 57 18 22 146 -22 39 52 35 39 31 21 41 26 48 38 3 47 - 16 0 0 39 34 57 21 57 26 22 145 -21 39 45 35 39 24 24 41 19 31 37 57 2 - 17 0 0 39 28 48 21 57 34 22 144 -21 39 39 24 39 18 16 41 13 7 37 51 5 - 18 0 0 39 23 28 21 57 42 21 144 -20 39 34 3 39 12 58 41 7 35 37 45 55 - 19 0 0 39 18 58 21 57 49 21 143 -19 39 29 32 39 8 29 41 2 55 37 41 34 - 20 0 0 39 15 18 21 57 57 21 142 -19 39 25 51 39 4 49 40 59 6 37 38 0 - 21 0 0 39 12 27 21 58 4 20 141 -18 39 23 0 39 1 59 40 56 11 37 35 14 - 22 0 0 39 10 27 21 58 11 20 140 -18 39 20 59 38 59 59 40 54 7 37 33 16 - 23 0 0 39 9 16 21 58 19 19 139 -17 39 19 48 38 58 48 40 52 55 37 32 6 - 24 0 0 39 8 56 21 58 25 19 138 -16 39 19 28 38 58 27 40 52 36 37 31 44 - 25 0 0 39 9 25 21 58 32 18 138 -16 39 19 58 38 58 57 40 53 10 37 32 10 - 26 0 0 39 10 45 21 58 39 18 137 -15 39 21 18 39 0 16 40 54 36 37 33 24 - 27 0 0 39 12 55 21 58 45 17 136 -15 39 23 29 39 2 25 40 56 55 37 35 27 - 28 0 0 39 15 56 21 58 51 17 135 -14 39 26 31 39 5 25 41 0 6 37 38 19 - 29 0 0 39 19 47 21 58 57 16 135 -13 39 30 24 39 9 15 41 4 11 37 41 59 - 30 0 0 39 24 29 21 59 3 15 134 -12 39 35 7 39 13 56 41 9 9 37 46 28 - 31 0 0 39 30 3 21 59 9 15 133 -12 39 40 43 39 19 27 41 15 1 37 51 47 - 32 0 0 39 36 27 21 59 14 14 132 -11 39 47 9 39 25 50 41 21 46 37 57 54 - 33 0 0 39 43 43 21 59 19 14 132 -10 39 54 27 39 33 3 41 29 26 38 4 50 - 34 0 0 39 51 51 21 59 24 13 131 -10 40 2 37 39 41 9 41 37 59 38 12 37 - 35 0 0 40 0 50 21 59 29 12 130 -9 40 11 39 39 50 5 41 47 28 38 21 12 - 36 0 0 40 10 42 21 59 33 12 130 -8 40 21 34 39 59 54 41 57 51 38 30 38 - 37 0 0 40 21 26 21 59 37 11 129 -7 40 32 21 40 10 35 42 9 10 38 40 54 - 38 0 0 40 33 2 21 59 41 10 128 -7 40 44 1 40 22 8 42 21 24 38 52 0 - 39 0 0 40 45 32 21 59 45 9 127 -6 40 56 35 40 34 33 42 34 34 39 3 56 - 40 0 0 40 58 54 21 59 49 9 127 -5 41 10 2 40 47 52 42 48 40 39 16 43 - 41 0 0 41 13 11 21 59 52 8 126 -4 41 24 22 41 2 4 43 3 44 39 30 22 - 42 0 0 41 28 21 21 59 55 7 125 -3 41 39 37 41 17 9 43 19 44 39 44 51 - 43 0 0 41 44 25 21 59 57 6 125 -3 41 55 46 41 33 9 43 36 43 40 0 12 - 44 0 0 42 1 24 22 0 0 6 124 -2 42 12 51 41 50 2 43 54 39 .. .. .. - 45 0 0 42 19 17 22 0 2 5 123 -1 42 30 50 42 7 50 44 13 35 .. .. .. - 46 0 0 42 38 6 22 0 3 4 123 0 42 49 45 42 26 33 44 33 30 .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs Prediction of 2012 Aug 16.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 6352-00911-1 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 20 52 18.2007 DE: -20 27 18.193 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .032, .041 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.4 * B mag [mag]: 12.5 * Apparent position with proper motion RA(deg): 313.2666940335 DE(deg): -20.4034475749 * Equation of equinoxes (radians) : 0.000073361721323 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (2415) Ganesa approx. diameter [km]: 16 approx. diameter ["]: .014 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.57200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Aug 16 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1106 number of rejected observations: 34 time covered by the observations: 1952 Nov 16 - 2012 Jul 18 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.066, 0.044, 76° remarks: * orbital elements for (2415) Ganesa : Mean anomaly = 18.71119358 deg Arg. of pericenter = 205.52828849 deg Long. of node = 89.81438210 deg Inclination = 2.37462408 deg Eccentricity = 0.03771052 Semimajor axis = 2.65893418 AU Perihelion dist = 2.55866437 AU Mag: H = 12.13, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56155.91400000 TDT (2012 Aug 16.914) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Aug 16 2415 Ganesa 21h 55.5m UT 11.4 20 52 18.201-20 27 18.19TYC 6352-00911-1 12.5 15.6 16 1.7 1.572 -2.053 -9.02 18.5018 -20.451 -147.85 13.38 21.9254 -0.26992 0.86779 -5.15953 -1.61281 0.00125 0.00063 2000 17.3668082012 811.00000205.528288 89.814382 2.3746240.03771052 2.6589342 2.558664412.1 5.00.15 RATE 2.2732260 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.073 0.060 79 5.27 0.060 0 0-3-3 056155.0020120816_0911-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Aug 16, 15:24 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org