IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (94) Aurora / 2UCAC 17836054 event on 2012 Jul 22, 06:40 UT Visible from SE USA, Mexico Summary ------- On 2012 Jul 22 UT, the 218 km diameter asteroid (94) Aurora will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across SE USA, Mexico. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.5 mag to 12.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 98 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Jul 22, 06:36 - 2012 Jul 22, 06:44 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456130.7781625 * magnitude of target star: 13.0 * magnitude drop [mag]: 0.5 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 16.8 * Moon: 10 % sunlit, 127° distance * Sun: 163° distance * rough path description: SE USA, Mexico The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 410 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.36 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 5.1 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .046 +/- .046) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .046", .046", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.9525 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of 2UCAC 17836054 by 94 Aurora on 2012 Jul 22 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude - 62 6 4 45 0 0 6 36 13 1 218 -17 - 65 39 19 ... .. .. - 68 21 29 ... .. .. - 63 16 52 44 0 0 6 36 14 2 217 -19 - 66 50 53 - 59 54 37 - 69 34 2 ... .. .. - 64 29 51 43 0 0 6 36 15 4 217 -20 - 68 5 5 - 61 6 58 - 70 49 38 ... .. .. - 65 45 11 42 0 0 6 36 17 5 216 -21 - 69 22 9 - 62 21 17 - 72 8 34 ... .. .. - 67 3 6 41 0 0 6 36 19 6 215 -23 - 70 42 21 - 63 37 44 - 73 31 9 ... .. .. - 68 23 49 40 0 0 6 36 21 8 214 -24 - 72 6 0 - 64 56 30 - 74 57 47 ... .. .. - 69 47 37 39 0 0 6 36 25 9 213 -26 - 73 33 28 - 66 17 50 - 76 28 58 - 63 54 39 - 71 14 51 38 0 0 6 36 29 11 212 -27 - 75 5 12 - 67 41 57 - 78 5 17 - 65 17 9 - 72 45 54 37 0 0 6 36 34 12 211 -28 - 76 41 47 - 69 9 12 - 79 47 32 - 66 42 22 - 74 21 15 36 0 0 6 36 40 14 210 -30 - 78 23 54 - 70 39 53 - 81 36 43 - 68 10 34 - 76 1 29 35 0 0 6 36 46 15 209 -31 - 80 12 30 - 72 14 28 - 83 34 10 - 69 42 7 - 77 47 21 34 0 0 6 36 54 17 208 -33 - 82 8 44 - 73 53 25 - 85 41 47 - 71 17 26 - 79 39 48 33 0 0 6 37 3 18 206 -34 - 84 14 17 - 75 37 25 - 88 2 20 - 72 57 0 - 81 40 5 32 0 0 6 37 13 20 205 -36 - 86 31 29 - 77 27 13 - 90 40 11 - 74 41 25 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 83 0 0 31 22 30 6 37 20 21 204 -37 33 34 54 29 18 50 35 16 59 27 54 16 - 84 0 0 30 55 34 6 37 26 22 203 -37 33 6 35 28 53 2 34 47 25 27 29 9 - 85 0 0 30 29 40 6 37 31 22 202 -38 32 39 22 28 28 13 34 19 4 27 5 0 - 86 0 0 30 4 48 6 37 37 23 202 -39 32 13 16 28 4 22 33 51 52 26 41 47 - 87 0 0 29 40 57 6 37 43 24 201 -39 31 48 15 27 41 29 33 25 50 26 19 31 - 88 0 0 29 18 8 6 37 49 24 200 -40 31 24 19 27 19 34 33 0 57 25 58 10 - 89 0 0 28 56 19 6 37 56 25 199 -40 31 1 28 26 58 37 32 37 11 25 37 45 - 90 0 0 28 35 29 6 38 2 26 199 -41 30 39 40 26 38 37 32 14 33 25 18 15 - 91 0 0 28 15 40 6 38 9 26 198 -41 30 18 55 26 19 33 31 53 0 24 59 41 - 92 0 0 27 56 50 6 38 15 27 197 -42 29 59 13 26 1 27 31 32 34 24 42 1 - 93 0 0 27 38 59 6 38 22 27 196 -42 29 40 33 25 44 16 31 13 13 24 25 16 - 94 0 0 27 22 6 6 38 29 28 195 -42 29 22 55 25 28 2 30 54 56 24 9 26 - 95 0 0 27 6 12 6 38 35 28 194 -43 29 6 18 25 12 43 30 37 43 23 54 30 - 96 0 0 26 51 15 6 38 42 29 194 -43 28 50 42 24 58 20 30 21 33 23 40 27 - 97 0 0 26 37 16 6 38 49 29 193 -43 28 36 7 24 44 52 30 6 27 23 27 19 - 98 0 0 26 24 15 6 38 57 30 192 -44 28 22 32 24 32 19 29 52 23 23 15 4 - 99 0 0 26 12 11 6 39 4 30 191 -44 28 9 56 24 20 41 29 39 21 23 3 43 -100 0 0 26 1 3 6 39 11 30 190 -44 27 58 20 24 9 58 29 27 21 22 53 15 -101 0 0 25 50 52 6 39 18 31 189 -44 27 47 44 24 0 9 29 16 23 22 43 40 -102 0 0 25 41 38 6 39 26 31 188 -44 27 38 6 23 51 14 29 6 26 22 34 58 -103 0 0 25 33 20 6 39 33 31 187 -44 27 29 27 23 43 14 28 57 29 22 27 9 -104 0 0 25 25 58 6 39 40 31 186 -44 27 21 47 23 36 8 28 49 33 22 20 13 -105 0 0 25 19 32 6 39 48 31 185 -44 27 15 5 23 29 55 28 42 38 22 14 9 -106 0 0 25 14 2 6 39 55 32 184 -44 27 9 21 23 24 37 28 36 42 22 8 58 -107 0 0 25 9 27 6 40 3 32 184 -44 27 4 35 23 20 12 28 31 47 22 4 39 -108 0 0 25 5 48 6 40 10 32 183 -44 27 0 47 23 16 41 28 27 52 22 1 13 -109 0 0 25 3 5 6 40 18 32 182 -44 26 57 57 23 14 3 28 24 56 21 58 39 -110 0 0 25 1 17 6 40 25 32 181 -44 26 56 5 23 12 19 28 23 0 21 56 57 -111 0 0 25 0 25 6 40 33 32 180 -43 26 55 10 23 11 28 28 22 4 21 56 8 -112 0 0 25 0 28 6 40 40 32 179 -43 26 55 14 23 11 31 28 22 7 21 56 11 -113 0 0 25 1 26 6 40 48 32 178 -43 26 56 15 23 12 28 28 23 10 21 57 6 -114 0 0 25 3 20 6 40 56 32 177 -42 26 58 13 23 14 18 28 25 13 21 58 53 -115 0 0 25 6 10 6 41 3 32 176 -42 27 1 10 23 17 1 28 28 15 22 1 33 -116 0 0 25 9 55 6 41 11 32 175 -42 27 5 4 23 20 39 28 32 18 22 5 5 -117 0 0 25 14 36 6 41 18 32 174 -41 27 9 57 23 25 9 28 37 20 22 9 29 -118 0 0 25 20 12 6 41 25 31 173 -41 27 15 47 23 30 34 28 43 22 22 14 46 -119 0 0 25 26 45 6 41 33 31 172 -40 27 22 36 23 36 52 28 50 24 22 20 56 -120 0 0 25 34 13 6 41 40 31 171 -40 27 30 23 23 44 5 28 58 27 22 27 58 -121 0 0 25 42 37 6 41 48 31 170 -39 27 39 9 23 52 11 29 7 31 22 35 53 -122 0 0 25 51 58 6 41 55 30 169 -39 27 48 53 24 1 12 29 17 35 22 44 41 -123 0 0 26 2 16 6 42 2 30 168 -38 27 59 37 24 11 7 29 28 41 22 54 22 -124 0 0 26 13 30 6 42 9 30 168 -38 28 11 20 24 21 56 29 40 48 23 4 56 -125 0 0 26 25 41 6 42 16 29 167 -37 28 24 2 24 33 41 29 53 58 23 16 23 -126 0 0 26 38 49 6 42 23 29 166 -36 28 37 45 24 46 20 30 8 9 23 28 44 -127 0 0 26 52 54 6 42 30 28 165 -36 28 52 27 24 59 54 30 23 23 23 41 59 -128 0 0 27 7 58 6 42 37 28 164 -35 29 8 10 25 14 24 30 39 40 23 56 7 -129 0 0 27 23 59 6 42 44 27 163 -34 29 24 55 25 29 49 30 57 1 24 11 10 -130 0 0 27 40 59 6 42 51 27 162 -34 29 42 40 25 46 10 31 15 26 24 27 7 -131 0 0 27 58 57 6 42 57 26 162 -33 30 1 28 26 3 28 31 34 55 24 43 58 -132 0 0 28 17 55 6 43 4 26 161 -32 30 21 17 26 21 41 31 55 30 25 1 45 -133 0 0 28 37 51 6 43 10 25 160 -31 30 42 10 26 40 52 32 17 10 25 20 26 -134 0 0 28 58 48 6 43 16 24 159 -31 31 4 6 27 0 59 32 39 57 25 40 2 -135 0 0 29 20 45 6 43 22 24 158 -30 31 27 6 27 22 4 33 3 52 26 0 34 -136 0 0 29 43 42 6 43 28 23 158 -29 31 51 10 27 44 6 33 28 54 26 22 2 -137 0 0 30 7 41 6 43 34 22 157 -28 32 16 19 28 7 6 33 55 5 26 44 26 -138 0 0 30 32 41 6 43 40 22 156 -27 32 42 35 28 31 4 34 22 26 27 7 46 -139 0 0 30 58 43 6 43 46 21 155 -26 33 9 56 28 56 1 34 50 57 27 32 2 -140 0 0 31 25 47 6 43 51 20 155 -25 33 38 25 29 21 57 35 20 40 27 57 16 -141 0 0 31 53 55 6 43 56 19 154 -25 34 8 1 29 48 52 35 51 36 28 23 27 -142 0 0 32 23 6 6 44 1 19 153 -24 34 38 47 30 16 47 36 23 45 28 50 35 -143 0 0 32 53 21 6 44 6 18 153 -23 35 10 41 30 45 42 36 57 9 29 18 40 -144 0 0 33 24 40 6 44 11 17 152 -22 35 43 46 31 15 37 37 31 49 29 47 44 -145 0 0 33 57 5 6 44 15 16 151 -21 36 18 3 31 46 33 38 7 47 30 17 46 -146 0 0 34 30 36 6 44 20 15 151 -20 36 53 32 32 18 30 38 45 4 30 48 46 -147 0 0 35 5 13 6 44 24 14 150 -19 37 30 14 32 51 28 39 23 41 31 20 45 -148 0 0 35 40 56 6 44 28 13 149 -18 38 8 11 33 25 28 40 3 41 31 53 43 -149 0 0 36 17 48 6 44 31 13 149 -17 38 47 23 34 0 30 40 45 4 32 27 40 -150 0 0 36 55 48 6 44 35 12 148 -16 39 27 52 34 36 35 41 27 54 33 2 36 -151 0 0 37 34 56 6 44 38 11 147 -15 40 9 39 35 13 43 42 12 13 33 38 32 -152 0 0 38 15 15 6 44 41 10 147 -14 40 52 46 35 51 53 42 58 2 34 15 27 -153 0 0 38 56 43 6 44 43 9 146 -13 41 37 14 36 31 7 43 45 25 34 53 22 -154 0 0 39 39 23 6 44 46 8 145 -12 42 23 5 37 11 25 44 34 25 35 32 17 -155 0 0 40 23 14 6 44 48 7 145 -11 43 10 20 37 52 46 45 25 4 36 12 12 -156 0 0 41 8 18 6 44 50 5 144 -10 43 59 2 38 35 12 46 17 28 36 53 7 -157 0 0 41 54 35 6 44 51 4 143 -8 44 49 13 39 18 41 47 11 40 37 35 2 -158 0 0 42 42 6 6 44 52 3 143 -7 45 40 55 40 3 16 .. .. .. 38 17 56 -159 0 0 43 30 52 6 44 53 2 142 -6 .. .. .. 40 48 55 .. .. .. .. .. .. -160 0 0 44 20 54 6 44 54 1 141 -5 .. .. .. 41 35 38 .. .. .. .. .. .. -161 0 0 45 12 13 6 44 54 0 141 -4 .. .. .. 42 23 26 .. .. .. .. .. .. Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: 2UCAC 17836054 * constellation : Sagittarius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 19 18 38.6226 DE: -33 06 08.236 * position source: mpos:UCAC4 pm:UCAC4 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .044, .045 ) * V mag [mag]: 13.0 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (94) Aurora approx. diameter [km]: 218 approx. diameter ["]: .128 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.34900 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1099 number of rejected observations: 97 time covered by the observations: 1901 Oct 14 - 2012 Jun 30 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.014, 0.010, 81° remarks: * orbital elements for (94) Aurora : Mean anomaly = 235.53647278 deg Arg. of pericenter = 60.17496271 deg Long. of node = 2.67040102 deg Inclination = 7.96443073 deg Eccentricity = 0.08915693 Semimajor axis = 3.15933937 AU Perihelion dist = 2.87766238 AU Mag: H = 7.52, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56130.27800000 TDT (2012 Jul 22.278) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Jul 22 94 Aurora 6h 40.6m UT 13.0 19 18 38.623-33 6 8.242UCAC 17836054 0.0 12.5 218 16.8 2.349 -2.177 -0.19 -110.9025 -33.101 81.48 20.17 6.6759 -0.00565 0.84694 -7.31058 -0.05184 0.00115 0.00121 2000 235.4876802012 722.00000 60.174963 2.670401 7.9644310.08915693 3.1593394 2.8776624 7.6 5.00.15 RATE 1.7551320 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.046 0.046 89 1.36 0.046 0 0-4 4 056116.0020120722_836054 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 07, 22:14 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org