IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (1112) Polonia / TYC 5793-00934-1 event on 2012 Jul 18, 19:48 UT Visible from China, SW Asia, Russia, Europe Summary ------- On 2012 Jul 18 UT, the 38 km diameter asteroid (1112) Polonia will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a path across China, SW Asia, Russia, Europe. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.9 mag to 14.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.4 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 52 * date and approx. time of event: 2012 Jul 18, 19:42 - 2012 Jul 18, 19:57 UT * geocentric midpoint of event [JD]: 2456127.32575417 * magnitude of target star: 10.6 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.9 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.4 * Moon: 0 % sunlit, 146° distance * Sun: 149° distance * rough path description: China, SW Asia, Russia, Europe The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 55 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.22 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 6.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .037 +/- .031) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .038", .031", 72° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 8.4809 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 5793-00934-1 by 1112 Polonia on 2012 Jul 18 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 13 0 0 48 42 9 19 57 46 0 105 -8 48 57 35 48 26 49 .. .. .. .. .. .. 14 0 0 48 31 45 19 57 46 1 106 -9 48 47 10 48 16 24 49 25 7 .. .. .. 15 0 0 48 21 17 19 57 46 2 106 -9 48 36 43 48 5 56 49 14 40 .. .. .. 16 0 0 48 10 46 19 57 45 2 107 -10 48 26 11 47 55 24 49 4 9 .. .. .. 17 0 0 48 0 12 19 57 45 3 108 -10 48 15 37 47 44 50 48 53 35 .. .. .. 18 0 0 47 49 34 19 57 44 4 109 -11 48 5 0 47 34 13 48 42 58 .. .. .. 19 0 0 47 38 55 19 57 43 4 109 -11 47 54 21 47 23 33 48 32 19 46 46 23 20 0 0 47 28 13 19 57 42 5 110 -12 47 43 39 47 12 51 48 21 37 46 35 40 21 0 0 47 17 28 19 57 41 6 111 -13 47 32 54 47 2 7 48 10 53 46 24 56 22 0 0 47 6 42 19 57 40 6 111 -13 47 22 8 46 51 20 48 0 6 46 14 10 23 0 0 46 55 54 19 57 38 7 112 -14 47 11 20 46 40 32 47 49 18 46 3 21 24 0 0 46 45 4 19 57 36 8 113 -14 47 0 30 46 29 42 47 38 28 45 52 32 25 0 0 46 34 13 19 57 34 9 114 -15 46 49 39 46 18 51 47 27 37 45 41 41 26 0 0 46 23 20 19 57 32 9 114 -15 46 38 46 46 7 59 47 16 44 45 30 49 27 0 0 46 12 27 19 57 30 10 115 -16 46 27 53 45 57 6 47 5 50 45 19 56 28 0 0 46 1 33 19 57 28 11 116 -16 46 16 59 45 46 12 46 54 56 45 9 3 29 0 0 45 50 39 19 57 25 11 117 -17 46 6 4 45 35 18 46 44 1 44 58 9 30 0 0 45 39 44 19 57 22 12 117 -17 45 55 9 45 24 24 46 33 6 44 47 15 31 0 0 45 28 50 19 57 19 13 118 -18 45 44 15 45 13 29 46 22 10 44 36 21 32 0 0 45 17 55 19 57 16 13 119 -18 45 33 20 45 2 35 46 11 15 44 25 27 33 0 0 45 7 1 19 57 13 14 120 -19 45 22 25 44 51 41 46 0 20 44 14 34 34 0 0 44 56 8 19 57 10 15 120 -19 45 11 32 44 40 48 45 49 26 44 3 42 35 0 0 44 45 15 19 57 6 16 121 -20 45 0 39 44 29 56 45 38 32 43 52 50 36 0 0 44 34 24 19 57 3 16 122 -20 44 49 47 44 19 4 45 27 39 43 42 0 37 0 0 44 23 33 19 56 59 17 123 -21 44 38 57 44 8 15 45 16 48 43 31 11 38 0 0 44 12 45 19 56 55 18 123 -21 44 28 8 43 57 26 45 5 58 43 20 23 39 0 0 44 1 58 19 56 50 18 124 -22 44 17 20 43 46 40 44 55 10 43 9 37 40 0 0 43 51 13 19 56 46 19 125 -22 44 6 35 43 35 55 44 44 24 42 58 54 41 0 0 43 40 30 19 56 41 20 126 -23 43 55 52 43 25 13 44 33 40 42 48 13 42 0 0 43 29 50 19 56 37 20 126 -23 43 45 11 43 14 33 44 22 58 42 37 34 43 0 0 43 19 13 19 56 32 21 127 -24 43 34 33 43 3 56 44 12 19 42 26 58 44 0 0 43 8 38 19 56 27 22 128 -24 43 23 58 42 53 22 44 1 43 42 16 25 45 0 0 42 58 6 19 56 21 22 129 -24 43 13 26 42 42 51 43 51 9 42 5 55 46 0 0 42 47 38 19 56 16 23 130 -25 43 2 58 42 32 23 43 40 40 41 55 28 47 0 0 42 37 14 19 56 11 24 130 -25 42 52 32 42 21 59 43 30 13 41 45 5 48 0 0 42 26 53 19 56 5 24 131 -25 42 42 11 42 11 39 43 19 51 41 34 46 49 0 0 42 16 36 19 55 59 25 132 -26 42 31 54 42 1 22 43 9 32 41 24 31 50 0 0 42 6 23 19 55 53 26 133 -26 42 21 40 41 51 10 42 59 17 41 14 20 51 0 0 41 56 15 19 55 47 26 134 -26 42 11 32 41 41 2 42 49 7 41 4 13 52 0 0 41 46 11 19 55 41 27 134 -27 42 1 27 41 30 59 42 39 2 40 54 12 53 0 0 41 36 12 19 55 34 28 135 -27 41 51 28 41 21 1 42 29 1 40 44 15 54 0 0 41 26 19 19 55 28 28 136 -27 41 41 34 41 11 8 42 19 5 40 34 23 55 0 0 41 16 30 19 55 21 29 137 -28 41 31 45 41 1 20 42 9 14 40 24 36 56 0 0 41 6 47 19 55 14 29 138 -28 41 22 1 40 51 37 41 59 29 40 14 55 57 0 0 40 57 10 19 55 7 30 139 -28 41 12 23 40 42 0 41 49 50 40 5 20 58 0 0 40 47 38 19 55 0 31 140 -28 41 2 51 40 32 29 41 40 16 39 55 50 59 0 0 40 38 13 19 54 53 31 141 -29 40 53 25 40 23 5 41 30 49 39 46 26 60 0 0 40 28 53 19 54 45 32 142 -29 40 44 5 40 13 46 41 21 27 39 37 9 61 0 0 40 19 40 19 54 38 32 142 -29 40 34 51 40 4 34 41 12 12 39 27 58 62 0 0 40 10 34 19 54 30 33 143 -29 40 25 45 39 55 28 41 3 4 39 18 54 63 0 0 40 1 35 19 54 22 33 144 -29 40 16 44 39 46 29 40 54 2 39 9 57 64 0 0 39 52 42 19 54 14 34 145 -29 40 7 51 39 37 37 40 45 8 39 1 6 65 0 0 39 43 57 19 54 6 35 146 -30 39 59 6 39 28 53 40 36 20 38 52 23 66 0 0 39 35 19 19 53 58 35 147 -30 39 50 27 39 20 15 40 27 40 38 43 47 67 0 0 39 26 49 19 53 50 36 148 -30 39 41 56 39 11 46 40 19 8 38 35 19 68 0 0 39 18 26 19 53 41 36 149 -30 39 33 33 39 3 23 40 10 43 38 26 58 69 0 0 39 10 11 19 53 33 37 150 -30 39 25 17 38 55 9 40 2 26 38 18 45 70 0 0 39 2 4 19 53 24 37 151 -30 39 17 10 38 47 3 39 54 17 38 10 40 71 0 0 38 54 6 19 53 15 38 153 -30 39 9 10 38 39 5 39 46 16 38 2 44 72 0 0 38 46 15 19 53 7 38 154 -30 39 1 19 38 31 15 39 38 24 37 54 55 73 0 0 38 38 33 19 52 58 38 155 -30 38 53 37 38 23 34 39 30 40 37 47 15 74 0 0 38 31 0 19 52 49 39 156 -30 38 46 3 38 16 1 39 23 5 37 39 44 75 0 0 38 23 36 19 52 40 39 157 -30 38 38 38 38 8 37 39 15 38 37 32 22 76 0 0 38 16 20 19 52 30 40 158 -30 38 31 22 38 1 22 39 8 21 37 25 8 77 0 0 38 9 14 19 52 21 40 159 -30 38 24 15 37 54 17 39 1 13 37 18 4 78 0 0 38 2 17 19 52 12 40 160 -30 38 17 18 37 47 20 38 54 13 37 11 8 79 0 0 37 55 29 19 52 2 41 162 -30 38 10 29 37 40 33 38 47 24 37 4 22 80 0 0 37 48 51 19 51 53 41 163 -29 38 3 50 37 33 55 38 40 44 36 57 46 81 0 0 37 42 22 19 51 43 41 164 -29 37 57 21 37 27 27 38 34 13 36 51 19 82 0 0 37 36 3 19 51 34 42 165 -29 37 51 2 37 21 8 38 27 52 36 45 2 83 0 0 37 29 54 19 51 24 42 166 -29 37 44 52 37 15 0 38 21 42 36 38 54 84 0 0 37 23 55 19 51 14 42 168 -29 37 38 53 37 9 1 38 15 41 36 32 57 85 0 0 37 18 6 19 51 4 43 169 -29 37 33 3 37 3 13 38 9 50 36 27 9 86 0 0 37 12 27 19 50 54 43 170 -28 37 27 24 36 57 34 38 4 10 36 21 32 87 0 0 37 6 59 19 50 45 43 171 -28 37 21 55 36 52 6 37 58 40 36 16 5 88 0 0 37 1 41 19 50 35 43 173 -28 37 16 37 36 46 49 37 53 20 36 10 49 89 0 0 36 56 33 19 50 25 43 174 -28 37 11 29 36 41 42 37 48 11 36 5 43 90 0 0 36 51 37 19 50 15 44 175 -27 37 6 32 36 36 45 37 43 13 36 0 47 91 0 0 36 46 50 19 50 5 44 177 -27 37 1 45 36 32 0 37 38 26 35 56 3 92 0 0 36 42 15 19 49 55 44 178 -27 36 57 10 36 27 25 37 33 49 35 51 29 93 0 0 36 37 51 19 49 44 44 179 -27 36 52 45 36 23 1 37 29 23 35 47 6 94 0 0 36 33 38 19 49 34 44 180 -26 36 48 31 36 18 48 37 25 9 35 42 53 95 0 0 36 29 35 19 49 24 44 182 -26 36 44 29 36 14 46 37 21 5 35 38 52 96 0 0 36 25 44 19 49 14 44 183 -25 36 40 37 36 10 55 37 17 13 35 35 2 97 0 0 36 22 4 19 49 4 44 184 -25 36 36 57 36 7 16 37 13 32 35 31 24 98 0 0 36 18 36 19 48 54 44 186 -25 36 33 28 36 3 48 37 10 3 35 27 56 99 0 0 36 15 19 19 48 44 44 187 -24 36 30 11 36 0 31 37 6 45 35 24 40 100 0 0 36 12 13 19 48 33 44 188 -24 36 27 5 35 57 25 37 3 38 35 21 35 101 0 0 36 9 19 19 48 23 44 190 -23 36 24 11 35 54 31 37 0 43 35 18 42 102 0 0 36 6 36 19 48 13 44 191 -23 36 21 28 35 51 49 36 58 0 35 16 0 103 0 0 36 4 5 19 48 3 44 192 -23 36 18 57 35 49 18 36 55 28 35 13 29 104 0 0 36 1 46 19 47 53 44 194 -22 36 16 37 35 46 59 36 53 8 35 11 11 105 0 0 35 59 39 19 47 43 43 195 -22 36 14 30 35 44 52 36 51 0 35 9 4 106 0 0 35 57 43 19 47 33 43 196 -21 36 12 34 35 42 56 36 49 4 35 7 8 107 0 0 35 55 59 19 47 23 43 197 -21 36 10 50 35 41 12 36 47 20 35 5 25 108 0 0 35 54 27 19 47 13 43 199 -20 36 9 17 35 39 40 36 45 47 35 3 53 109 0 0 35 53 7 19 47 3 43 200 -20 36 7 57 35 38 20 36 44 27 35 2 33 110 0 0 35 51 59 19 46 53 42 201 -19 36 6 49 35 37 12 36 43 18 35 1 25 111 0 0 35 51 2 19 46 43 42 202 -19 36 5 53 35 36 16 36 42 22 35 0 29 112 0 0 35 50 18 19 46 33 42 204 -18 36 5 8 35 35 32 36 41 38 34 59 45 113 0 0 35 49 46 19 46 23 41 205 -17 36 4 36 35 35 0 36 41 5 34 59 13 114 0 0 35 49 26 19 46 14 41 206 -17 36 4 16 35 34 39 36 40 45 34 58 53 115 0 0 35 49 17 19 46 4 41 207 -16 36 4 8 35 34 31 36 40 37 34 58 44 116 0 0 35 49 21 19 45 54 40 208 -16 36 4 12 35 34 35 36 40 41 34 58 48 117 0 0 35 49 37 19 45 45 40 209 -15 36 4 28 35 34 51 36 40 57 34 59 4 118 0 0 35 50 5 19 45 36 40 211 -15 36 4 56 35 35 19 36 41 26 34 59 32 119 0 0 35 50 46 19 45 26 39 212 -14 36 5 36 35 35 59 36 42 6 35 0 12 120 0 0 35 51 38 19 45 17 39 213 -13 36 6 29 35 36 51 36 42 59 35 1 3 121 0 0 35 52 42 19 45 8 38 214 -13 36 7 33 35 37 55 36 44 4 35 2 7 122 0 0 35 53 59 19 44 59 38 215 -12 36 8 50 35 39 11 36 45 21 35 3 23 123 0 0 35 55 27 19 44 50 37 216 -11 36 10 18 35 40 40 36 46 50 35 4 51 124 0 0 35 57 7 19 44 41 37 217 -11 36 11 59 35 42 20 36 48 31 35 6 31 125 0 0 35 59 0 19 44 32 36 218 -10 36 13 52 35 44 12 36 50 24 35 8 22 126 0 0 36 1 4 19 44 23 36 219 -9 36 15 56 35 46 17 36 52 30 35 10 26 127 0 0 36 3 21 19 44 15 35 220 -9 36 18 13 35 48 33 36 54 47 35 12 42 128 0 0 36 5 49 19 44 6 35 221 -8 36 20 42 35 51 1 36 57 16 35 15 9 129 0 0 36 8 30 19 43 58 34 222 -7 36 23 22 35 53 41 36 59 58 35 17 49 130 0 0 36 11 22 19 43 50 34 223 -7 36 26 15 35 56 33 37 2 51 35 20 40 131 0 0 36 14 26 19 43 41 33 224 -6 36 29 19 35 59 37 37 5 56 35 23 43 132 0 0 36 17 42 19 43 33 33 225 -5 36 32 35 36 2 52 37 9 13 35 26 57 133 0 0 36 21 9 19 43 25 32 226 -5 36 36 3 36 6 19 37 12 42 35 30 24 134 0 0 36 24 49 19 43 18 31 226 -4 36 39 43 36 9 58 37 16 23 35 34 2 135 0 0 36 28 39 19 43 10 31 227 -3 36 43 34 36 13 49 37 20 15 35 37 51 136 0 0 36 32 42 19 43 3 30 228 -3 36 47 37 36 17 51 37 24 19 35 41 53 137 0 0 36 36 56 19 42 55 30 229 -2 36 51 52 36 22 4 37 28 34 35 46 5 138 0 0 36 41 21 19 42 48 29 230 -1 36 56 17 36 26 29 37 33 1 35 50 29 139 0 0 36 45 58 19 42 41 28 231 0 37 0 55 36 31 6 37 37 39 35 55 4 Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs Prediction of 2012 Jul 8.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 5793-00934-1 * constellation : Capricornus * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 21 51 35.1837 DE: -09 39 11.714 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .022, .026 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.6 * B mag [mag]: 11.2 * Diameter [mas]: 0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (1112) Polonia approx. diameter [km]: 38 approx. diameter ["]: .026 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.98200 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2012 Jul 07 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 995 number of rejected observations: 45 time covered by the observations: 1928 Aug 15 - 2012 Jun 25 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.031, 0.017, 62° remarks: * orbital elements for (1112) Polonia : Mean anomaly = 297.42004463 deg Arg. of pericenter = 87.41714123 deg Long. of node = 302.94118737 deg Inclination = 8.99732303 deg Eccentricity = 0.10287800 Semimajor axis = 3.02007997 AU Perihelion dist = 2.70938017 AU Mag: H = 9.90, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 56126.82600000 TDT (2012 Jul 18.826) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2012 Jul 18 1112 Polonia 19h 49.1m UT 10.6 21 51 35.184- 9 39 11.71TYC 5793-00934-1 11.2 14.5 38 4.4 1.982 -1.434 1.32 93.6028 -9.653 -115.69 20.84 19.8181 0.04348 0.71566 -4.77750 0.29957 -0.00259 -0.00121 2000 296.1381792012 712.00000 87.417141302.941187 8.9973230.10287800 3.0200800 2.709380210.1 5.00.15 RATE 1.8779170 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.038 0.031 72 2.22 0.032 0 0-3-4 056116.0020120718_0934-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2012 Jul 07, 21:57 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org