IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (3148) Grechko / UCAC2 23645460 event on 2010 Apr 22, 07:46 UT Visible from USA Summary ------- On 2010 Apr 22 UT, the 51 km diameter asteroid (3148) Grechko will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across USA. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.6 mag to 17.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 10 * date and approx. time of event: 2010 Apr 22, 07:41 - 2010 Apr 22, 07:52 UT * magnitude of target star: 11.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 5.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 4.2 * Moon: 57 % sunlit, 110° distance * Sun: 152° distance * rough path description: USA The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 76 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 6.34 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 25.2 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .163 +/- .158) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .163", .158", 92° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 12.1352 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 23645460 by 3148 Grechko on 2010 Apr 22 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -150 0 0 53 6 26 7 52 16 0 127 -19 53 32 20 52 40 49 .. .. .. .. .. .. -149 0 0 52 39 38 7 52 16 1 127 -20 53 5 31 52 14 1 .. .. .. .. .. .. -148 0 0 52 12 37 7 52 15 2 128 -21 52 38 28 51 47 0 .. .. .. .. .. .. -147 0 0 51 45 22 7 52 15 3 129 -22 52 11 13 51 19 48 .. .. .. .. .. .. -146 0 0 51 17 56 7 52 14 3 130 -22 51 43 45 50 52 23 .. .. .. .. .. .. -145 0 0 50 50 20 7 52 14 4 131 -23 51 16 7 50 24 48 .. .. .. .. .. .. -144 0 0 50 22 33 7 52 13 5 131 -24 50 48 18 49 57 4 56 42 17 .. .. .. -143 0 0 49 54 37 7 52 12 6 132 -24 50 20 20 49 29 10 56 13 42 .. .. .. -142 0 0 49 26 34 7 52 11 7 133 -25 49 52 14 49 1 9 55 44 54 .. .. .. -141 0 0 48 58 23 7 52 9 7 134 -26 49 24 0 48 33 1 55 15 55 .. .. .. -140 0 0 48 30 5 7 52 8 8 134 -26 48 55 40 48 4 46 54 46 46 .. .. .. -139 0 0 48 1 43 7 52 6 9 135 -27 48 27 14 47 36 27 54 17 28 .. .. .. -138 0 0 47 33 16 7 52 4 10 136 -28 47 58 44 47 8 4 53 48 3 .. .. .. -137 0 0 47 4 47 7 52 3 11 137 -29 47 30 10 46 39 38 53 18 30 .. .. .. -136 0 0 46 36 14 7 52 0 11 137 -29 47 1 34 46 11 9 52 48 52 41 11 34 -135 0 0 46 7 41 7 51 58 12 138 -30 46 32 57 45 42 40 52 19 10 40 43 47 -134 0 0 45 39 7 7 51 56 13 139 -31 46 4 19 45 14 11 51 49 24 40 16 1 -133 0 0 45 10 35 7 51 53 14 140 -31 45 35 42 44 45 42 51 19 37 39 48 19 -132 0 0 44 42 4 7 51 50 15 141 -32 45 7 6 44 17 15 50 49 49 39 20 40 -131 0 0 44 13 35 7 51 47 15 141 -33 44 38 33 43 48 52 50 20 1 38 53 5 -130 0 0 43 45 11 7 51 44 16 142 -33 44 10 4 43 20 32 49 50 15 38 25 36 -129 0 0 43 16 51 7 51 41 17 143 -34 43 41 39 42 52 17 49 20 32 37 58 12 -128 0 0 42 48 36 7 51 37 18 144 -34 43 13 20 42 24 7 48 50 52 37 30 56 -127 0 0 42 20 29 7 51 33 19 144 -35 42 45 7 41 56 5 48 21 18 37 3 47 -126 0 0 41 52 29 7 51 30 19 145 -36 42 17 2 41 28 10 47 51 50 36 36 47 -125 0 0 41 24 37 7 51 26 20 146 -36 41 49 5 41 0 24 47 22 29 36 9 57 -124 0 0 40 56 55 7 51 21 21 147 -37 41 21 17 40 32 47 46 53 16 35 43 16 -123 0 0 40 29 24 7 51 17 22 147 -37 40 53 40 40 5 20 46 24 13 35 16 47 -122 0 0 40 2 3 7 51 13 23 148 -38 40 26 14 39 38 5 45 55 21 34 50 30 -121 0 0 39 34 54 7 51 8 23 149 -38 39 59 0 39 11 2 45 26 40 34 24 25 -120 0 0 39 7 59 7 51 3 24 150 -39 39 31 59 38 44 12 44 58 11 33 58 33 -119 0 0 38 41 17 7 50 58 25 151 -39 39 5 11 38 17 35 44 29 56 33 32 56 -118 0 0 38 14 49 7 50 53 26 151 -40 38 38 38 37 51 13 44 1 55 33 7 33 -117 0 0 37 48 37 7 50 48 26 152 -40 38 12 20 37 25 7 43 34 10 32 42 25 -116 0 0 37 22 41 7 50 42 27 153 -41 37 46 18 36 59 16 43 6 41 32 17 34 -115 0 0 36 57 2 7 50 37 28 154 -41 37 20 34 36 33 42 42 39 29 31 52 59 -114 0 0 36 31 40 7 50 31 29 155 -41 36 55 6 36 8 26 42 12 35 31 28 42 -113 0 0 36 6 36 7 50 25 29 156 -42 36 29 57 35 43 27 41 45 59 31 4 43 -112 0 0 35 41 51 7 50 19 30 157 -42 36 5 6 35 18 48 41 19 43 30 41 2 -111 0 0 35 17 26 7 50 13 31 158 -42 35 40 36 34 54 28 40 53 48 30 17 40 -110 0 0 34 53 21 7 50 7 31 158 -42 35 16 25 34 30 28 40 28 13 29 54 38 -109 0 0 34 29 36 7 50 0 32 159 -43 34 52 35 34 6 48 40 3 0 29 31 56 -108 0 0 34 6 13 7 49 54 33 160 -43 34 29 6 33 43 30 39 38 9 29 9 35 -107 0 0 33 43 11 7 49 47 33 161 -43 34 5 59 33 20 34 39 13 41 28 47 35 -106 0 0 33 20 32 7 49 40 34 162 -43 33 43 15 32 58 0 38 49 37 28 25 56 -105 0 0 32 58 16 7 49 33 35 163 -43 33 20 54 32 35 49 38 25 57 28 4 40 -104 0 0 32 36 23 7 49 26 35 164 -43 32 58 56 32 14 1 38 2 41 27 43 47 -103 0 0 32 14 54 7 49 19 36 165 -43 32 37 22 31 52 37 37 39 51 27 23 16 -102 0 0 31 53 50 7 49 12 36 166 -44 32 16 12 31 31 37 37 17 27 27 3 9 -101 0 0 31 33 10 7 49 5 37 167 -44 31 55 28 31 11 2 36 55 29 26 43 25 -100 0 0 31 12 55 7 48 58 37 168 -44 31 35 8 30 50 52 36 33 57 26 24 6 - 99 0 0 30 53 6 7 48 50 38 169 -43 31 15 14 30 31 7 36 12 53 26 5 11 - 98 0 0 30 33 42 7 48 43 38 171 -43 30 55 46 30 11 48 35 52 16 25 46 41 - 97 0 0 30 14 45 7 48 35 39 172 -43 30 36 45 29 52 55 35 32 7 25 28 36 - 96 0 0 29 56 15 7 48 28 39 173 -43 30 18 10 29 34 29 35 12 27 25 10 57 - 95 0 0 29 38 12 7 48 20 39 174 -43 30 0 3 29 16 30 34 53 15 24 53 44 - 94 0 0 29 20 36 7 48 12 40 175 -43 29 42 23 28 58 58 34 34 33 24 36 56 - 93 0 0 29 3 27 7 48 4 40 176 -43 29 25 10 28 41 54 34 16 19 24 20 35 - 92 0 0 28 46 46 7 47 57 40 177 -42 29 8 26 28 25 17 33 58 36 24 4 41 - 91 0 0 28 30 34 7 47 49 41 179 -42 28 52 9 28 9 8 33 41 22 23 49 14 - 90 0 0 28 14 50 7 47 41 41 180 -42 28 36 21 27 53 28 33 24 39 23 34 13 - 89 0 0 27 59 35 7 47 33 41 181 -41 28 21 2 27 38 16 33 8 26 23 19 40 - 88 0 0 27 44 48 7 47 25 42 182 -41 28 6 13 27 23 33 32 52 44 23 5 35 - 87 0 0 27 30 31 7 47 17 42 183 -41 27 51 52 27 9 18 32 37 33 22 51 57 - 86 0 0 27 16 43 7 47 9 42 185 -40 27 38 0 26 55 33 32 22 54 22 38 47 - 85 0 0 27 3 24 7 47 0 42 186 -40 27 24 39 26 42 18 32 8 45 22 26 5 - 84 0 0 26 50 35 7 46 52 42 187 -40 27 11 47 26 29 32 31 55 9 22 13 52 - 83 0 0 26 38 16 7 46 44 42 188 -39 26 59 25 26 17 16 31 42 4 22 2 7 - 82 0 0 26 26 27 7 46 36 42 190 -39 26 47 33 26 5 30 31 29 31 21 50 51 - 81 0 0 26 15 8 7 46 28 42 191 -38 26 36 12 25 54 13 31 17 31 21 40 3 - 80 0 0 26 4 20 7 46 20 42 192 -38 26 25 21 25 43 28 31 6 3 21 29 44 - 79 0 0 25 54 2 7 46 12 42 193 -37 26 15 1 25 33 12 30 55 7 21 19 55 - 78 0 0 25 44 15 7 46 4 42 195 -36 26 5 11 25 23 27 30 44 44 21 10 35 - 77 0 0 25 34 59 7 45 56 42 196 -36 25 55 53 25 14 13 30 34 54 21 1 43 - 76 0 0 25 26 13 7 45 47 42 197 -35 25 47 5 25 5 29 30 25 37 20 53 22 - 75 0 0 25 17 59 7 45 39 42 198 -35 25 38 49 24 57 17 30 16 53 20 45 30 - 74 0 0 25 10 15 7 45 31 42 199 -34 25 31 4 24 49 35 30 8 42 20 38 7 - 73 0 0 25 3 3 7 45 23 42 201 -33 25 23 50 24 42 24 30 1 4 20 31 14 - 72 0 0 24 56 22 7 45 15 41 202 -33 25 17 8 24 35 45 29 54 0 20 24 51 - 71 0 0 24 50 13 7 45 7 41 203 -32 25 10 57 24 29 37 29 47 29 20 18 58 - 70 0 0 24 44 35 7 45 0 41 204 -31 25 5 18 24 24 0 29 41 31 20 13 35 - 69 0 0 24 39 29 7 44 52 41 205 -31 25 0 11 24 18 55 29 36 8 20 8 42 - 68 0 0 24 34 54 7 44 44 40 206 -30 24 55 35 24 14 22 29 31 17 20 4 19 - 67 0 0 24 30 52 7 44 36 40 207 -29 24 51 32 24 10 20 29 27 1 20 0 26 - 66 0 0 24 27 20 7 44 28 40 208 -29 24 48 0 24 6 49 29 23 19 19 57 4 - 65 0 0 24 24 21 7 44 21 39 209 -28 24 45 0 24 3 51 29 20 10 19 54 12 - 64 0 0 24 21 54 7 44 13 39 210 -27 24 42 32 24 1 24 29 17 36 19 51 50 - 63 0 0 24 19 59 7 44 6 38 211 -26 24 40 37 23 59 29 29 15 35 19 49 59 - 62 0 0 24 18 36 7 43 58 38 212 -26 24 39 13 23 58 6 29 14 9 19 48 38 - 61 0 0 24 17 44 7 43 51 37 213 -25 24 38 22 23 57 15 29 13 17 19 47 47 - 60 0 0 24 17 25 7 43 44 37 214 -24 24 38 3 23 56 56 29 12 59 19 47 28 - 59 0 0 24 17 38 7 43 36 36 215 -23 24 38 16 23 57 9 29 13 15 19 47 38 - 58 0 0 24 18 24 7 43 29 36 216 -23 24 39 2 23 57 53 29 14 5 19 48 20 - 57 0 0 24 19 41 7 43 22 35 217 -22 24 40 20 23 59 10 29 15 30 19 49 32 - 56 0 0 24 21 31 7 43 15 35 218 -21 24 42 10 24 1 0 29 17 29 19 51 14 - 55 0 0 24 23 53 7 43 9 34 219 -20 24 44 33 24 3 21 29 20 2 19 53 28 - 54 0 0 24 26 47 7 43 2 34 220 -19 24 47 28 24 6 14 29 23 10 19 56 12 - 53 0 0 24 30 14 7 42 55 33 221 -18 24 50 56 24 9 40 29 26 52 19 59 27 - 52 0 0 24 34 12 7 42 49 32 221 -18 24 54 55 24 13 38 29 31 9 20 3 12 - 51 0 0 24 38 43 7 42 42 32 222 -17 24 59 28 24 18 7 29 35 59 20 7 28 - 50 0 0 24 43 47 7 42 36 31 223 -16 25 4 32 24 23 9 29 41 25 20 12 15 - 49 0 0 24 49 22 7 42 30 30 224 -15 25 10 10 24 28 44 29 47 24 20 17 33 - 48 0 0 24 55 30 7 42 24 30 224 -14 25 16 19 24 34 50 29 53 58 20 23 21 - 47 0 0 25 2 10 7 42 18 29 225 -13 25 23 1 24 41 28 30 1 6 20 29 40 - 46 0 0 25 9 23 7 42 12 28 226 -12 25 30 15 24 48 39 30 8 49 20 36 29 - 45 0 0 25 17 7 7 42 6 28 226 -12 25 38 2 24 56 21 30 17 5 20 43 49 - 44 0 0 25 25 24 7 42 1 27 227 -11 25 46 20 25 4 36 30 25 56 20 51 40 - 43 0 0 25 34 12 7 41 55 26 228 -10 25 55 11 25 13 22 30 35 21 21 0 1 - 42 0 0 25 43 33 7 41 50 25 228 -9 26 4 35 25 22 40 30 45 21 21 8 53 - 41 0 0 25 53 26 7 41 45 25 229 -8 26 14 30 25 32 30 30 55 54 21 18 15 - 40 0 0 26 3 50 7 41 40 24 230 -7 26 24 57 25 42 52 31 7 1 21 28 8 - 39 0 0 26 14 46 7 41 35 23 230 -6 26 35 56 25 53 46 31 18 42 21 38 30 - 38 0 0 26 26 14 7 41 30 22 231 -5 26 47 27 26 5 11 31 30 57 21 49 23 - 37 0 0 26 38 14 7 41 26 21 232 -4 26 59 30 26 17 7 31 43 46 22 0 46 - 36 0 0 26 50 45 7 41 21 21 232 -4 27 12 4 26 29 35 31 57 8 22 12 39 - 35 0 0 27 3 47 7 41 17 20 233 -3 27 25 10 26 42 34 32 11 3 22 25 2 - 34 0 0 27 17 21 7 41 13 19 233 -2 27 38 47 26 56 5 32 25 32 22 37 54 - 33 0 0 27 31 26 7 41 9 18 234 -1 27 52 55 27 10 6 32 40 34 22 51 17 Uncertainty in time = +/- 27 secs Prediction of 2010 Mar 4.0 Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 23645460 * constellation : Scorpius * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 15 48 45.8237 DE: -20 48 12.028 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .152, .152 ) * V mag [mag]: 11.8 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (3148) Grechko approx. diameter [km]: 51 approx. diameter ["]: .025 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.76800 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2010 Mar 03 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 972 number of rejected observations: 8 time covered by the observations: 1964 Jan 18 - 2009 Jun 15 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.061, 0.047, 102° remarks: * orbital elements for (3148) Grechko : Mean anomaly = 189.86600937 deg Arg. of pericenter = 44.38154014 deg Long. of node = 1.08500583 deg Inclination = 0.73414485 deg Eccentricity = 0.19039957 Semimajor axis = 3.10326388 AU Perihelion dist = 2.51240377 AU Mag: H = 12.17, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 55308.32400000 TDT (2010 Apr 22.324) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2010 Apr 22 3148 Grechko 7h 46.4m UT 11.8 15 48 45.824-20 48 12.03UCAC2 23645460 0.0 17.4 51 4.2 2.768 -1.524 4.20 -89.6769 -20.804 63.04 12.20 7.7733 0.14092 0.72507 -6.72069 1.32176 -0.00260 0.00065 2000 188.3652602010 414.00000 44.381540 1.085006 0.7341450.19039957 3.1032639 2.512403811.8 5.00.15 RATE 1.8029180 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.163 0.158 92 7.34 0.161 0 055259.0020100422_645460 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2010 Mar 03, 20:05 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org