IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (59) Elpis / HIP 24807 event on 2008 Oct 31, 23:59 UT Visible from India, S Africa Summary ------- On 2008 Oct 31 UT, the 165 km diameter asteroid (59) Elpis will occult a 8.2 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across India, S Africa. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 11.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 28.8 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: . The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 100 * date and approx. time of event: 2008 Oct 31, 23:46 - 2008 Nov 01, 00:16 UT * magnitude of target star: 8.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 3.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 28.8 * Moon: 9 % sunlit, 161° distance * Sun: 138° distance * rough path description: India, S Africa The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 176 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.15 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.7 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .027 +/- .015) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .027", .015", 86° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 5.7179 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of HIP 24807 by 59 Elpis on 2008 Oct 31 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude - 28 8 36 -63 0 0 24 16 47 2 61 -11 - 32 5 20 - 24 31 15 - 33 21 12 - 23 29 2 - 24 14 54 -62 0 0 24 16 45 4 58 -13 - 27 43 33 - 20 59 31 - 28 49 18 - 20 3 3 Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude - 24 0 0 -61 55 53 24 16 44 4 58 -13 -61 0 33 -62 51 37 -60 44 1 -63 8 24 - 23 0 0 -61 38 56 24 16 43 5 57 -13 -60 43 12 -62 35 3 -60 26 33 -62 51 58 - 22 0 0 -61 21 22 24 16 42 6 56 -14 -60 25 15 -62 17 54 -60 8 29 -62 34 57 - 21 0 0 -61 3 12 24 16 41 6 55 -14 -60 6 40 -62 0 9 -59 49 47 -62 17 19 - 20 0 0 -60 44 23 24 16 40 7 54 -14 -59 47 26 -61 41 45 -59 30 26 -61 59 3 - 19 0 0 -60 24 55 24 16 38 7 53 -15 -59 27 33 -61 22 44 -59 10 26 -61 40 10 - 18 0 0 -60 4 48 24 16 37 8 53 -15 -59 7 0 -61 3 3 -58 49 45 -61 20 36 - 17 0 0 -59 43 59 24 16 35 8 52 -16 -58 45 45 -60 42 41 -58 28 22 -61 0 23 - 16 0 0 -59 22 29 24 16 33 9 51 -16 -58 23 48 -60 21 38 -58 6 17 -60 39 28 - 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9 23 8 -11 36 15 - 9 3 24 -11 56 28 48 0 0 - 9 32 28 24 1 53 68 335 -33 - 8 26 39 -10 38 58 - 8 7 3 -10 59 4 49 0 0 - 8 36 7 24 1 28 68 332 -32 - 7 30 42 - 9 42 12 - 7 11 12 -10 2 10 50 0 0 - 7 40 17 24 1 3 69 329 -32 - 6 35 16 - 8 45 58 - 6 15 53 - 9 5 48 51 0 0 - 6 45 2 24 0 38 69 325 -31 - 5 40 25 - 7 50 18 - 5 21 9 - 8 10 1 52 0 0 - 5 50 23 24 0 13 69 322 -31 - 4 46 10 - 6 55 14 - 4 27 1 - 7 14 49 53 0 0 - 4 56 21 23 59 49 69 319 -30 - 3 52 31 - 6 0 46 - 3 33 29 - 6 20 14 54 0 0 - 4 2 57 23 59 24 69 315 -30 - 2 59 32 - 5 6 58 - 2 40 37 - 5 26 18 55 0 0 - 3 10 13 23 59 0 69 312 -29 - 2 7 12 - 4 13 49 - 1 48 25 - 4 33 1 56 0 0 - 2 18 11 23 58 36 69 308 -29 - 1 15 34 - 3 21 22 - 0 56 53 - 3 40 26 57 0 0 - 1 26 51 23 58 12 69 305 -28 - 0 24 38 - 2 29 37 - 0 6 4 - 2 48 34 58 0 0 - 0 36 14 23 57 48 69 302 -27 0 25 35 - 1 38 36 0 44 1 - 1 57 25 59 0 0 0 13 38 23 57 24 68 299 -27 1 15 3 - 0 48 19 1 33 23 - 1 7 1 60 0 0 1 2 45 23 57 1 68 296 -26 2 3 46 0 1 12 2 21 59 - 0 17 22 61 0 0 1 51 5 23 56 38 67 294 -25 2 51 43 0 49 57 3 9 49 0 31 30 62 0 0 2 38 39 23 56 15 67 291 -25 3 38 54 1 37 55 3 56 53 1 19 36 63 0 0 3 25 26 23 55 52 66 289 -24 4 25 17 2 25 5 4 43 10 2 6 53 64 0 0 4 11 24 23 55 29 66 287 -23 5 10 53 3 11 27 5 28 38 2 53 22 65 0 0 4 56 34 23 55 7 65 285 -23 5 55 40 3 57 1 6 13 19 3 39 3 66 0 0 5 40 55 23 54 45 64 283 -22 6 39 38 4 41 44 6 57 10 4 23 54 67 0 0 6 24 26 23 54 24 64 281 -21 7 22 48 5 25 39 7 40 13 5 7 55 68 0 0 7 7 8 23 54 2 63 279 -20 8 5 7 6 8 43 8 22 26 5 51 6 69 0 0 7 49 0 23 53 41 62 278 -20 8 46 37 6 50 57 9 3 50 6 33 27 70 0 0 8 30 1 23 53 21 61 277 -19 9 27 18 7 32 21 9 44 24 7 14 57 71 0 0 9 10 13 23 53 0 60 275 -18 10 7 8 8 12 53 10 24 8 7 55 37 72 0 0 9 49 33 23 52 40 60 274 -18 10 46 8 8 52 35 11 3 2 8 35 25 73 0 0 10 28 4 23 52 20 59 273 -17 11 24 17 9 31 27 11 41 5 9 14 23 74 0 0 11 5 43 23 52 1 58 272 -16 12 1 37 10 9 27 12 18 19 9 52 29 75 0 0 11 42 32 23 51 42 57 271 -15 12 38 6 10 46 36 12 54 42 10 29 45 76 0 0 12 18 31 23 51 23 56 271 -15 13 13 45 11 22 55 13 30 16 11 6 10 77 0 0 12 53 39 23 51 5 55 270 -14 13 48 35 11 58 23 14 4 59 11 41 44 78 0 0 13 27 57 23 50 47 54 270 -13 14 22 34 12 33 0 14 38 53 12 16 27 79 0 0 14 1 25 23 50 29 53 269 -12 14 55 43 13 6 47 15 11 57 12 50 19 80 0 0 14 34 3 23 50 12 52 269 -11 15 28 3 13 39 43 15 44 11 13 23 21 81 0 0 15 5 51 23 49 55 52 268 -11 15 59 33 14 11 49 16 15 36 13 55 33 82 0 0 15 36 50 23 49 38 51 268 -10 16 30 15 14 43 5 16 46 12 14 26 54 83 0 0 16 6 59 23 49 21 50 267 -9 17 0 7 15 13 32 17 15 59 14 57 26 84 0 0 16 36 19 23 49 5 49 267 -8 17 29 10 15 43 9 17 44 58 15 27 8 85 0 0 17 4 50 23 48 50 48 267 -8 17 57 25 16 11 56 18 13 8 15 56 0 86 0 0 17 32 33 23 48 34 47 267 -7 18 24 52 16 39 55 18 40 30 16 24 4 87 0 0 17 59 27 23 48 19 46 267 -6 18 51 31 17 7 5 19 7 5 16 51 19 88 0 0 18 25 33 23 48 5 45 267 -5 19 17 22 17 33 26 19 32 51 17 17 45 89 0 0 18 50 52 23 47 50 44 267 -5 19 42 26 17 59 0 19 57 51 17 43 23 90 0 0 19 15 23 23 47 36 43 267 -4 20 6 43 18 23 45 20 22 4 18 8 13 91 0 0 19 39 7 23 47 22 42 267 -3 20 30 13 18 47 43 20 45 30 18 32 15 92 0 0 20 2 4 23 47 9 41 267 -2 20 52 57 19 10 54 21 8 10 18 55 30 93 0 0 20 24 15 23 46 56 41 267 -1 21 14 55 19 33 18 21 30 3 19 17 58 94 0 0 20 45 39 23 46 43 40 267 -1 21 36 7 19 54 55 21 51 12 19 39 39 Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs [Prediction of 2008 Oct 16.0] Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: HIP 24807 * constellation : Orion * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 19 06.0774 DE: +10 32 00.331 * position source: Pos: HIP2, pm: HIP2, pi:HIP2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .017, .011 ) * V mag [mag]: 8.2 * B mag [mag]: 8.6 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (59) Elpis approx. diameter [km]: 165 approx. diameter ["]: .139 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.64100 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2008 Oct 15 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 892 number of rejected observations: 114 time covered by the observations: 1900 Sep 20 - 2008 Oct 15 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.021, 0.011, 84° remarks: * orbital elements for (59) Elpis : Mean anomaly = 34.31380250 deg Arg. of pericenter = 211.41603881 deg Long. of node = 170.16214219 deg Inclination = 8.63261315 deg Eccentricity = 0.11678983 Semimajor axis = 2.71366543 AU Perihelion dist = 2.39673692 AU Mag: H = 7.92, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 54771.00000000 TDT (2008 Nov 01.000) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2008 Oct 31 59 Elpis 23h 59.5m UT 8.2 5 19 6.077 10 32 0.33HIP 24807 8.6 11.8 165 28.8 1.641 -0.827 -12.30 39.2569 10.536 176.04 -14.48 23.9909 0.24965 -0.24746 -2.26992 -2.29417 -0.00380 0.00067 2000 34.09332220081031.00000211.416039170.162142 8.6326130.11678983 2.7136654 2.3967369 7.9 5.00.15 RATE 2.2048020 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.027 0.015 86 1.15 0.021 0 54755.5020081031__24807 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2008 Oct 16, 01:51 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org