IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (419) Aurelia / TYC 4945-00246-1 event on 2008 Mar 18, 16:47 UT Visible from Japan, China, Russia Summary ------- On 2008 Mar 18 UT, the 129 km diameter asteroid (419) Aurelia will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across Japan, China, Russia. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.6 mag to 11.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.2 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 99 * date and approx. time of event: 2008 Mar 18, 16:40 - 2008 Mar 18, 16:54 UT * magnitude of target star: 10.2 * magnitude drop [mag]: 1.6 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 12.2 * Moon: 90 % sunlit, 43° distance * Sun: 172° distance * rough path description: Japan, China, Russia The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 184 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 0.21 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 2.8 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .029 +/- .025) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .029", .025", 100° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 10.5495 * website for maps: http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of TYC 4945-00246-1 by 419 Aurelia on 2008 Mar 18 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude 41 0 0 70 48 33 16 54 37 0 110 -8 .. .. .. 69 55 55 .. .. .. 69 34 3 42 0 0 70 41 20 16 54 37 0 111 -8 71 35 4 69 48 29 .. .. .. 69 26 33 43 0 0 70 33 50 16 54 37 1 112 -9 71 27 47 69 40 48 71 50 43 69 18 46 44 0 0 70 26 4 16 54 37 1 113 -9 71 20 14 69 32 49 71 43 16 69 10 42 45 0 0 70 18 1 16 54 37 1 113 -9 71 12 24 69 24 33 71 35 32 69 2 21 46 0 0 70 9 40 16 54 37 2 114 -10 71 4 18 69 15 59 71 27 32 68 53 42 47 0 0 70 1 3 16 54 37 2 115 -10 70 55 54 69 7 8 71 19 14 68 44 46 48 0 0 69 52 7 16 54 36 3 116 -10 70 47 13 68 57 59 71 10 39 68 35 31 49 0 0 69 42 53 16 54 36 3 117 -11 70 38 14 68 48 31 71 1 47 68 25 57 50 0 0 69 33 21 16 54 36 3 118 -11 70 28 57 68 38 45 70 52 36 68 16 5 51 0 0 69 23 31 16 54 35 4 119 -12 70 19 22 68 28 40 70 43 8 68 5 54 52 0 0 69 13 21 16 54 35 4 120 -12 70 9 27 68 18 15 70 33 20 67 55 24 53 0 0 69 2 52 16 54 35 5 121 -12 69 59 14 68 7 31 70 23 14 67 44 34 54 0 0 68 52 3 16 54 34 5 122 -13 69 48 42 67 56 28 70 12 48 67 33 24 55 0 0 68 40 55 16 54 34 5 123 -13 69 37 49 67 45 4 70 2 3 67 21 54 56 0 0 68 29 26 16 54 33 6 124 -14 69 26 37 67 33 19 69 50 58 67 10 3 57 0 0 68 17 36 16 54 32 6 125 -14 69 15 4 67 21 14 69 39 32 66 57 52 58 0 0 68 5 26 16 54 32 7 126 -14 69 3 10 67 8 47 69 27 46 66 45 19 59 0 0 67 52 54 16 54 31 7 127 -15 68 50 55 66 55 59 69 15 38 66 32 24 60 0 0 67 40 0 16 54 30 7 127 -15 68 38 18 66 42 50 69 3 9 66 19 8 61 0 0 67 26 44 16 54 29 8 128 -16 68 25 20 66 29 18 68 50 18 66 5 30 62 0 0 67 13 6 16 54 28 8 129 -16 68 11 59 66 15 23 68 37 5 65 51 29 63 0 0 66 59 5 16 54 27 9 130 -17 67 58 15 66 1 6 68 23 29 65 37 5 64 0 0 66 44 41 16 54 26 9 131 -17 67 44 9 65 46 26 68 9 30 65 22 18 65 0 0 66 29 54 16 54 25 10 132 -17 67 29 39 65 31 22 67 55 8 65 7 8 66 0 0 66 14 43 16 54 24 10 133 -18 67 14 45 65 15 55 67 40 22 64 51 34 67 0 0 65 59 8 16 54 22 11 134 -18 66 59 28 65 0 4 67 25 12 64 35 36 68 0 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59 22 18 36 20 -179 0 0 19 39 25 16 41 31 21 255 -20 20 30 6 18 49 30 20 51 37 18 28 45 -178 0 0 19 32 22 16 41 26 20 255 -19 20 22 59 18 42 30 20 44 28 18 21 46 -177 0 0 19 25 54 16 41 21 19 256 -18 20 16 28 18 36 5 20 37 57 18 15 22 -176 0 0 19 20 3 16 41 17 18 256 -17 20 10 35 18 30 17 20 32 2 18 9 35 -175 0 0 19 14 49 16 41 12 17 257 -16 20 5 18 18 25 5 20 26 45 18 4 24 -174 0 0 19 10 12 16 41 8 16 257 -15 20 0 39 18 20 29 20 22 4 17 59 49 -173 0 0 19 6 11 16 41 5 15 258 -14 19 56 37 18 16 30 20 18 2 17 55 50 -172 0 0 19 2 48 16 41 1 14 258 -13 19 53 13 18 13 8 20 14 37 17 52 29 -171 0 0 19 0 2 16 40 57 14 258 -12 19 50 26 18 10 22 20 11 50 17 49 43 -170 0 0 18 57 53 16 40 54 13 259 -11 19 48 16 18 8 13 20 9 40 17 47 35 -169 0 0 18 56 21 16 40 51 12 259 -10 19 46 45 18 6 42 20 8 9 17 46 3 -168 0 0 18 55 27 16 40 49 11 259 -9 19 45 51 18 5 48 20 7 15 17 45 9 -167 0 0 18 55 11 16 40 46 10 260 -9 19 45 36 18 5 30 20 7 0 17 44 51 -166 0 0 18 55 32 16 40 44 9 260 -8 19 45 58 18 5 51 20 7 23 17 45 11 -165 0 0 18 56 32 16 40 42 8 260 -7 19 46 59 18 6 48 20 8 25 17 46 8 -164 0 0 18 58 9 16 40 40 7 261 -6 19 48 38 18 8 24 20 10 5 17 47 43 -163 0 0 19 0 24 16 40 38 6 261 -5 19 50 56 18 10 37 20 12 24 17 49 55 -162 0 0 19 3 17 16 40 37 5 261 -4 19 53 52 18 13 28 20 15 21 17 52 45 -161 0 0 19 6 49 16 40 36 4 262 -3 19 57 27 18 16 56 20 18 57 17 56 12 -160 0 0 19 10 59 16 40 35 3 262 -2 20 1 41 18 21 3 20 23 12 18 0 17 -159 0 0 19 15 47 16 40 34 2 262 -1 20 6 33 18 25 47 20 28 6 18 5 0 -158 0 0 19 21 14 16 40 33 1 263 0 20 12 4 18 31 10 20 33 39 18 10 21 Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs [Prediction of 2008 Mar 12.0] Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: TYC 4945-00246-1 * constellation : Virgo * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 12 09 47.2472 DE: -06 20 03.619 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .021, .019 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.2 * B mag [mag]: 11.2 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (419) Aurelia approx. diameter [km]: 129 approx. diameter ["]: .122 distance from Earth [AU]: 1.46100 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2008 Mar 12 source of used astrometry: FASTT MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 1002 number of rejected observations: 131 time covered by the observations: 1900 Jul 21 - 2008 Mar 03 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.020, 0.017, 110° remarks: * orbital elements for (419) Aurelia : Mean anomaly = 296.90605856 deg Arg. of pericenter = 44.67359519 deg Long. of node = 229.34409100 deg Inclination = 3.92498302 deg Eccentricity = 0.25281555 Semimajor axis = 2.59519317 AU Perihelion dist = 1.93908798 AU Mag: H = 8.46, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 54543.70000000 TDT (2008 Mar 18.700) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2008 Mar 18 419 Aurelia 16h 47.6m UT 10.2 12 9 47.247- 6 20 3.62TYC 4945-00246-1 11.2 11.5 129 12.2 1.461 -2.161 15.75 113.9291 -6.338 -69.92 -0.61 16.7934 0.31332 0.64123 -5.35014 2.61366 -0.00037 0.00068 2000 296.0337882008 315.00000 44.673595229.344091 3.9249830.25281555 2.5951932 1.9390880 8.4 5.00.15 RATE 2.3574890 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.029 0.025 100 1.21 0.025 0 54537.5020080318_0246-1 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2008 Mar 12, 23:20 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org