IOTA/IOTA-ES occultation update for (973) Aralia / UCAC2 45471958 event on 2008 Mar 04, 00:53 UT Visible from Brazil, Venezulea Summary ------- On 2008 Mar 04 UT, the 52 km diameter asteroid (973) Aralia will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Brazil, Venezulea. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.2 mag to 15.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.1 seconds. This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC. The event at a glimpse ---------------------- * Rank: 44 * date and approx. time of event: 2008 Mar 04, 00:53 - 2008 Mar 04, 00:59 UT * magnitude of target star: 10.8 * magnitude drop [mag]: 4.2 * estimated maximum duration [s]: 3.1 * Moon: 15 % sunlit, 138° distance * Sun: 95° distance * rough path description: Brazil, Venezulea The occultation path -------------------- * approximate projected width [km]: 53 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [path widths]: +/- 1.50 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval [seconds]: +/- 4.6 * 1 sigma uncertainty interval approx RA,DE ["]: (+/- .052 +/- .039) * 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): ( .052", .039", 89° ) * approx speed of asteroid's shadow [km/s]: 16.8329 * website for maps: http://lunar-occultations.com/iota/asteroids/astrndx.htm http://www.asteroidoccultation.com Path Coordinates: Occultation of UCAC2 45471958 by 973 Aralia on 2008 Mar 4 Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude -103 0 0 29 20 36 0 53 21 79 14 -1 29 5 6 29 36 4 28 18 33 30 22 25 -102 0 0 28 58 20 0 53 28 79 9 -2 28 42 46 29 13 53 27 55 58 30 0 28 -101 0 0 28 35 14 0 53 34 79 5 -3 28 19 35 28 50 52 27 32 32 29 37 41 -100 0 0 28 11 17 0 53 41 79 1 -3 27 55 33 28 27 1 27 8 15 29 14 5 - 99 0 0 27 46 29 0 53 47 78 357 -4 27 30 40 28 2 18 26 43 6 28 49 38 - 98 0 0 27 20 49 0 53 54 78 353 -5 27 4 55 27 36 43 26 17 5 28 24 19 - 97 0 0 26 54 17 0 54 0 77 350 -6 26 38 17 27 10 16 25 50 10 27 58 9 - 96 0 0 26 26 51 0 54 7 77 347 -7 26 10 45 26 42 56 25 22 21 27 31 6 - 95 0 0 25 58 31 0 54 14 76 344 -8 25 42 20 26 14 42 24 53 38 27 3 9 - 94 0 0 25 29 17 0 54 21 75 341 -9 25 13 0 25 45 34 24 24 0 26 34 19 - 93 0 0 24 59 8 0 54 28 74 339 -10 24 42 44 25 15 31 23 53 26 26 4 34 - 92 0 0 24 28 3 0 54 35 74 337 -11 24 11 33 24 44 32 23 21 56 25 33 53 - 91 0 0 23 56 2 0 54 41 73 336 -11 23 39 25 24 12 37 22 49 29 25 2 17 - 90 0 0 23 23 3 0 54 48 72 334 -12 23 6 20 23 39 45 22 16 5 24 29 45 - 89 0 0 22 49 8 0 54 55 71 333 -13 22 32 18 23 5 56 21 41 43 23 56 16 - 88 0 0 22 14 15 0 55 3 70 331 -14 21 57 18 22 31 10 21 6 23 23 21 49 - 87 0 0 21 38 23 0 55 10 69 330 -15 21 21 20 21 55 25 20 30 3 22 46 24 - 86 0 0 21 1 33 0 55 17 68 329 -16 20 44 22 21 18 41 19 52 45 22 10 2 - 85 0 0 20 23 43 0 55 24 67 329 -17 20 6 26 20 40 59 19 14 28 21 32 40 - 84 0 0 19 44 54 0 55 31 66 328 -18 19 27 30 20 2 17 18 35 10 20 54 20 - 83 0 0 19 5 6 0 55 38 65 327 -19 18 47 35 19 22 36 17 54 53 20 15 0 - 82 0 0 18 24 18 0 55 45 64 327 -20 18 6 40 18 41 56 17 13 36 19 34 41 - 81 0 0 17 42 31 0 55 53 63 326 -21 17 24 45 18 0 15 16 31 19 18 53 22 - 80 0 0 16 59 43 0 56 0 61 326 -22 16 41 50 17 17 35 15 48 2 18 11 4 - 79 0 0 16 15 56 0 56 7 60 325 -23 15 57 55 16 33 56 15 3 45 17 27 46 - 78 0 0 15 31 10 0 56 14 59 325 -24 15 13 2 15 49 16 14 18 29 16 43 29 - 77 0 0 14 45 24 0 56 21 58 324 -25 14 27 9 15 3 38 13 32 14 15 58 13 - 76 0 0 13 58 40 0 56 28 57 324 -26 13 40 17 14 17 1 12 45 0 15 11 59 - 75 0 0 13 10 58 0 56 36 55 324 -27 12 52 27 13 29 27 11 56 47 14 24 46 - 74 0 0 12 22 18 0 56 43 54 324 -28 12 3 40 12 40 54 11 7 38 13 36 35 - 73 0 0 11 32 42 0 56 50 53 323 -29 11 13 57 11 51 25 10 17 33 12 47 28 - 72 0 0 10 42 10 0 56 57 52 323 -30 10 23 18 11 1 1 9 26 32 11 57 25 - 71 0 0 9 50 43 0 57 4 50 323 -31 9 31 44 10 9 41 8 34 37 11 6 27 - 70 0 0 8 58 24 0 57 10 49 323 -32 8 39 18 9 17 29 7 41 49 10 14 36 - 69 0 0 8 5 13 0 57 17 48 323 -33 7 46 0 8 24 25 6 48 10 9 21 52 - 68 0 0 7 11 12 0 57 24 46 322 -34 6 51 52 7 30 30 5 53 42 8 28 17 - 67 0 0 6 16 22 0 57 31 45 322 -35 5 56 55 6 35 47 4 58 26 7 33 54 - 66 0 0 5 20 46 0 57 37 44 322 -36 5 1 13 5 40 18 4 2 24 6 38 44 - 65 0 0 4 24 26 0 57 43 42 322 -37 4 4 47 4 44 4 3 5 39 5 42 48 - 64 0 0 3 27 24 0 57 50 41 322 -38 3 7 39 3 47 8 2 8 13 4 46 10 - 63 0 0 2 29 42 0 57 56 40 322 -39 2 9 51 2 49 32 1 10 8 3 48 51 - 62 0 0 1 31 23 0 58 2 38 322 -39 1 11 27 1 51 18 0 11 27 2 50 54 - 61 0 0 0 32 31 0 58 7 37 322 -40 0 12 29 0 52 31 - 0 47 46 1 52 22 - 60 0 0 - 0 26 53 0 58 13 35 321 -41 - 0 47 0 - 0 6 48 - 1 47 30 0 53 17 - 59 0 0 - 1 26 46 0 58 19 34 321 -42 - 1 46 57 - 1 6 36 - 2 47 41 - 0 6 17 - 58 0 0 - 2 27 3 0 58 24 33 321 -43 - 2 47 18 - 2 6 49 - 3 48 15 - 1 6 18 - 57 0 0 - 3 27 42 0 58 29 31 321 -44 - 3 48 2 - 3 7 25 - 4 49 10 - 2 6 41 - 56 0 0 - 4 28 40 0 58 34 30 321 -44 - 4 49 3 - 4 8 19 - 5 50 22 - 3 7 25 - 55 0 0 - 5 29 52 0 58 38 28 321 -45 - 5 50 18 - 5 9 28 - 6 51 47 - 4 8 25 - 54 0 0 - 6 31 16 0 58 43 27 320 -46 - 6 51 45 - 6 10 49 - 7 53 22 - 5 9 38 - 53 0 0 - 7 32 48 0 58 47 26 320 -47 - 7 53 19 - 7 12 19 - 8 55 3 - 6 11 0 - 52 0 0 - 8 34 24 0 58 51 24 320 -47 - 8 54 57 - 8 13 53 - 9 56 47 - 7 12 29 - 51 0 0 - 9 36 1 0 58 55 23 320 -48 - 9 56 35 - 9 15 28 -10 58 30 - 8 13 59 - 50 0 0 -10 37 34 0 58 59 21 320 -48 -10 58 10 -10 17 0 -12 0 8 - 9 15 28 - 49 0 0 -11 39 1 0 59 2 20 319 -49 -11 59 38 -11 18 27 -13 1 38 -10 16 52 - 48 0 0 -12 40 18 0 59 5 18 319 -49 -13 0 55 -12 19 43 -14 2 56 -11 18 8 - 47 0 0 -13 41 21 0 59 8 17 319 -50 -14 1 57 -13 20 46 -15 3 58 -12 19 11 - 46 0 0 -14 42 6 0 59 11 16 319 -50 -15 2 42 -14 21 32 -16 4 41 -13 19 58 - 45 0 0 -15 42 31 0 59 13 14 318 -50 -16 3 6 -15 21 58 -17 5 3 -14 20 27 - 44 0 0 -16 42 32 0 59 15 13 318 -51 -17 3 6 -16 22 0 -18 4 58 -15 20 34 - 43 0 0 -17 42 6 0 59 17 11 318 -51 -18 2 39 -17 21 36 -19 4 25 -16 20 14 - 42 0 0 -18 41 10 0 59 19 10 317 -51 -19 1 40 -18 20 42 -20 3 21 -17 19 27 - 41 0 0 -19 39 41 0 59 20 9 317 -51 -20 0 9 -19 19 16 -21 1 42 -18 18 8 - 40 0 0 -20 37 37 0 59 21 7 317 -51 -20 58 1 -20 17 14 -21 59 25 -19 16 14 - 39 0 0 -21 34 54 0 59 22 6 316 -52 -21 55 15 -21 14 34 -22 56 30 -20 13 44 - 38 0 0 -22 31 30 0 59 23 5 316 -52 -22 51 48 -22 11 14 -23 52 52 -21 10 35 - 37 0 0 -23 27 23 0 59 24 3 316 -51 -23 47 37 -23 7 11 -24 48 29 -22 6 43 - 36 0 0 -24 22 31 0 59 24 2 315 -51 -24 42 41 -24 2 23 -25 43 21 -23 2 8 - 35 0 0 -25 16 53 0 59 25 1 315 -51 -25 36 58 -24 56 49 .. .. .. -23 56 47 Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs [Prediction of 2008 Feb 27.0] Data for the target star ------------------------ * name: UCAC2 45471958 * constellation : Auriga * J2000 position with proper motion to date of event [h,m,s ; °,',"] RA: 05 02 24.6845 DE: +39 10 28.433 * position source: mpos:UCAC2 pm:UCAC2 * standard error: RA,DE ["]: ( .048, .035 ) * V mag [mag]: 10.8 * B mag [mag]: 0.0 * remarks: Data for the minor planet ------------------------- * general information: (number) name: (973) Aralia approx. diameter [km]: 52 approx. diameter ["]: .027 distance from Earth [AU]: 2.62600 * orbital information: orbit source: Preston date of fit: 2008 Feb 27 source of used astrometry: FASTT TMO MPC (via Astdys) number of used observations: 665 number of rejected observations: 67 time covered by the observations: 1922 Mar 18 - 2008 Jan 23 1 sigma uncertainty ellipse (major, minor, PA): 0.019, 0.017, 84° remarks: * orbital elements for (973) Aralia : Mean anomaly = 15.82062937 deg Arg. of pericenter = 90.12881106 deg Long. of node = 348.61271489 deg Inclination = 15.80927964 deg Eccentricity = 0.10965068 Semimajor axis = 3.21482297 AU Perihelion dist = 2.86231546 AU Mag: H = 10.04, G = 0.15 Epoch of elements : MJD 54529.03700000 TDT (2008 Mar 04.037) ------ occelmnt file for Occult BEGIN ----------------------------------- 2008 Mar 4 973 Aralia 0h 53.2m UT 10.8 5 2 24.684 39 10 28.43UCAC2 45471958 0.0 15.0 52 3.1 2.626 2.505 -12.81 -99.8602 39.178 169.64 -6.36 0.8866 -0.07217 -0.16278 8.69610 -3.82699 0.00586 0.00047 2000 14.2754002008 224.00000 90.128811348.612715 15.8092800.10965068 3.2148230 2.8623154 9.6 5.00.15 RATE 1.7098920 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 Meas 0.052 0.039 89 2.50 0.041 0 54523.5020080304_471958 ------ occelmnt file for Occult END ----------------------------------- ============================================ Calculator (s): Steve Preston Date of update: 2008 Feb 27, 19:29 UT Steve Preston 7640 NE 32nd St Medina, WA 98039 425-688-9965 mailto: stevepr@acm.org